Human Security in the Western Balkan Region: the impact of transnational terrorist and criminal orga

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Human Security in the Western Balkan Region the
impact of transnational terrorist and criminal
organizations on the peace-building process of
the regionDissemination ConferenceBrussels, 23
24 April 2009

• UNHOLY ALLIANCES EVIDENCE ON LINKAGES BETWEEN
  TRANS-STATE TERRORISM AND CRIME NETWORKS
• (The case of Bosnia)
• By
• Lyubov Mincheva, University of Sofia, Bulgaria/
  IRIS
• Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland, USA

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Introduction (1) Why researching the nexus
between terrorism and crime in the Western
Balkans (Bosnia)?

• Two reasons determined the selection of this
  research topic. The practical reason is human
  insecurity in Bulgaria, a homeland for one author
  of the UA chapter and a country in the so-called
  outer-belt of the Eastern Balkans, including
  Romania, Macedonia and Albania, that bordered the
  post-Yugoslav republics but themselves were not
  directly involved in the Yugoslav armed
  conflicts. Human insecurity in Bulgaria is a
  serious problem! Why? From the early 1990s until
  very recently Bulgaria has been engulfed by
  chaos, ungovernability, and sporadic gangsters
  wars. The countrys criminal record can be
  attributed to (a) the post-communist transition
  to market economies in the Balkans jointly with
  (b) the 1990s conflicts in the Western Balkans.
• Our most recent research in criminal networks,
  ethnonationalism and the role of the state in
  Eastern Europe, completed in February 2009,
  showed that Bulgarias most influential economic
  structure - the so called market of violence -
  has used for more than a decade, beginning in the
  early 1990s, its trans-state criminal networks,
  established at the time of the Bosnian war, for
  purposes of illicit business activities with
  countries from the Western Balkans and Europe.
  Look at Bulgarias criminal statistics

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Introduction-2 Why researching the nexus between
terrorism and crime inthe Western Balkans
(Bosnia)?

• As of the mid-1990s Bulgarias income from the
  black market in stolen autos was estimated to be
  somewhere between BGL 150 160 million. This
  amounted to 1 of the GNP
• Bulgarias annual revenue received from heroin
  consumption is estimated to be somewhere between
  BGL 32 million 105 million. (Estimations made
  as of 2007).
• Bulgarias annual revenue received from the
  consumption of amphetamine is estimated to be
  between BGL 21 million 43 million. (Estimations
  made as of 2007).
• Bulgarias annual revenue from cannabis
  consumption is estimated to vary between BGL 50
  million 66 million, while cocaine consumption
  is estimated to vary between BGL 10 million to 20
  million. (Estimations made as of 2007).
• Bulgaria not least is estimated to be receiving
  somewhere between E 180 million to E 360 million
  from trafficking of women alone.
• Data from Bezlov, T., Tzenkov, E., Tzvetkova,
  M., Gounev., F., Petrunov, G. (eds.).(2007).
  Organized Crime in Bulgaria Markets and Trends.
  Sofia Center for the Study of Democracy.
• Maps reprinted from Haidinjak, M.(2002). The
  Contraband Channels in South East Europe. The
  Conflicts in Yugoslavia and the Emergence of the
  Regional Criminal Networks. Sofia Center for the
  Study of Democracy.

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Human security in the outer-belt countries
Number of organized crime attacks in BG
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Trafficking of Cocaine and Marihuana in South
East Europe ... South American
cocaine _____ local production of marihuana
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Trafficking of drugs and their production in
Bulgaria
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Introduction-3 Why researching the nexus between
terrorism and crime in the Western Balkans
(Bosnia)?

• So, our interest in researching the nexus between
  crime and terrorism in the Western Balkans,
  Bosnia in particular, was motivated by practical
  considerations related to human insecurity in the
  outer-belt Balkan countries , Bulgaria
  included.
• The second reason which has driven us to join the
  HUMSEC network is purely academic. The UA chapter
  is also a part of the Unholy Alliances project.
  This is a Bulgarian- American academic research
  project, directed by the two authors of the
  presented book Chapter. The project examines the
  political economy of militant transborder
  identity movements in the Balkans and the Islamic
  world. Previous research was centered on the
  political-criminal networks of the Kosovo
  Albanians transborder movement as well as
  networks established by the Kurdish Workers Party
  (PKK). Our most recent study on Bulgaria was
  focused on the role of the state in shaping
  illicit market opportunities. Publications are
  accessible at
• http//www.allacademic.com/meta/p254230_index.html
  
• http//www.allacademic.com/meta/p178915_index.html
  
• http//www.cidcm.umd.edu/publications/papers/unhol
  y_alliances.pdf
• http//convention2.allacademic.com/one/isa/isa09/i
  ndex.php?click_key1PHPSESSID991eb8a2ba041a78304
  fe633f4ea60d7

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The State of the Art Book Chapter Conditioning
the interaction of crime and terrorism (in Bosnia)

• We examine Bosnias terrorism- crime connection
  tracking the emergence and evolution of Bosnias
  trans-state Islamic identity movement from the
  beginning of the Bosnian war until 2007. We
  assume that trans-state identity movements
  including religious, ethnic, and ethnonational
  ones - provide settings for collaboration between
  the political and the criminal at times of armed
  conflict (and after). They are conditioned by the
  interplay of market opportunities and
  constraints.
• Our theoretical model consists of three key
  elements
• Availability of trans-border identity networks.
  This is our primary condition.
• Ongoing Armed conflict. This is a necessary
  condition.
• Interaction of market opportunities and market
  constraints, defined in terms of complex
  transnational commodities exchange and
  interdiction by security forces.

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The State of the Art Book Chapter The
establishment of a trans-state Islamic identity
movement in Bosnia

• Bosnians were known as secular and close to the
  European liberal democratic tradition. However
  identity changed, as shown by comparative
  statistical data from 1985 and 2004. The
  percentage of religious believers increased from
  17 to 78 over these two decades. We attribute
  the establishment of trans-state Islamic identity
  movement in Bosnia to three factors
• Number one was the formation of the Bosniak
  national identity whose core element was Islam.
  Islam was mainly used in Bosnia within a national
  context. However, the Bosnian national movement
  was used by transnational Islamic movement to
  gain a foothold in the Balkans.
• Number two was the global revival of Islam and
  the spread of Islamic advocacy networks
  everywhere Muslim communities exist.
• Number three was the Bosnian war, the arms
  embargo imposed on Yugoslavia, and the arrival in
  Bosnia, early in the war, of nearly 3,000
  radical Islamic fighters or mujahideen of Middle
  Eastern and North African origin.

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The State of the Art Book Chapter The evolution
of trans-state identity movement in Bosnia

• We identify two major steps in the development of
  trans-state Islamic identity movement in Bosnia.
• Step one is, the use of religion in support of
  national consolidation at the time of the Bosnian
  war. Major actor in this process was the ruling
  party of Democratic Action, which opened Bosnias
  doors to transnational Islamic advocacy networks.
  This process accounts for Islamic revivalism.
• Step two is, the partial penetration of society
  by fundamentalist Islamic culture in post-Dayton
  Bosnia. The linkage between the political and the
  criminal was strengthened after 1996 with the
  settlement of former mujahideen in the country
  and the establishment of branches of Islamic
  charities, some of them allegedly linked to al
  Qaeda network.
• A key issue for this research is, what role
  played the Islamska Zaednica, the local Islamic
  Community, in the establishment of cooperative
  relations with trans-state advocacy Islamic
  networks?

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The State of the Art Book Chapter The role of
the local Islamic Community in the evolution of
Bosnias trans-state Islamic movement

• Our research shows how the local Islamic
  Community and the trans-national Islamic advocacy
  networks have interacted, but also conflicted on
  a number of issues. The major issue of discord
  is, What should be the dominating religious
  doctrine Sufism or Salafism?
• Cooperation, as well as frictions, created
  opportunities for the penetration of Bosnian
  society by the trans-state Islamic advocacy
  movement. To mention a few
• Cooperation the trans-state Islamic advocacy
  network provides funds that are administered
  through the Islamic Community. Funds are being
  spent among all else for the Islamic education of
  young Bosniaks abroad. Some of the latter have
  been employed by the Islamic Community upon their
  return home.
• Contention internal frictions within the
  Islamska Zaednica lead to the establishment of
  independent local Islamic cultural centers that
  act independently. They can easily fall under
  foreign influence. Examples are the Active
  Islamic Youth (AIY), the Furquan.

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The State of the Art Book Chapter The
interaction of market opportunities and
constraints. Opportunities increase

• Market opportunities for collaboration between
  the political and the criminal increased
  significantly after the end of the Bosnian war.
  Why? The increase of market opportunities goes
  alongside the evolution of Bosnias trans-state
  Islamic movement. Most endangered is reportedly
  the Salafi dominated area of central Bosnia. It
  hosts a number of mosques, relief organizations
  and other agencies of unknown origin.
• Market opportunities increase with the
  establishment of local offices of Islamic
  charities in Bosnia that promote Salafist
  doctrines, such as the al Haramain Foundation
  the Society for the Revival of Islamic Culture,
  and the High Saudi Committee for Help to Bosnia.
  Charitable organizations operating in Bosnia also
  are suspected of financing terrorist activities
  outside the country.
• Market opportunities arguably (?) increased after
  the war with the settlement of former mujahideen
  in Bosnia. Some analysts think that the militants
  concentrated in central Bosnia and formed small
  societies closed to outsiders. They are thought
  to be active in the establishment of radical
  Islamic groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood (an
  offspring of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood),
  established in 2002 in Sarajevo and targeting the
  families of Muslim returnees.

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The State of the Art Book Chapter The
interaction of market opportunities and
constraints. The imposition of legal and market
constraints by Bosnian authorities

• Our research shows that the Bosnian government
  has significantly raised its legal and
  institutional capabilities to combat terrorism
  and organized crime since 09/11. We look at state
  and foreign initiatives, aimed at the
  centralization of key state institutions and
  agencies, including
• The establishment of the State Court of BiH and
  the Prosecutors Office the Intelligence and
  Security Agency of BiH state-level ministries of
  defence and security.
• We also look at newly adopted legislation
  establishing procedures for detecting, preventing
  and investigating money laundering and terrorism
  funding.
• Also relevant are the NATO proposed defense
  reform initiatives, as well as at the EU proposed
  police reform package.
• Our conclusion despite new measures aimed at
  institutional centralization, Bosnia remains a
  weak state that presents an attractive
  environment for those seeking to launch terrorist
  operations, or illicit business activities, or
  both jointly.

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The State of the Art Book Chapter Evidence on
linkages between trans-state terrorism and
criminal networks

• The instances, demonstrating the potential for
  terror-crime linkages in Bosnia discussed in this
  chapter, include
• The treat of terrorist attacks against the
  Embassies of the US and the UK in Sarajevo on 17
  October, 2001.
• The arrest warrant for Bosnian residents
  suspected of planning bomb attacks, including
  Bensayah Belcacem, identified as a high-ranking
  figure in al Qaeda and as having personal
  connections to bin Laden.
• The radicalization of the local Islamic group,
  the Active Islamic Youth, and the increasing
  opportunities for fusion of local Islamic
  agencies with global terrorist networks.
• Counter-measures include police raids and
  closures of agencies involved in illegal business
  activities of foreign Islamic charities, some of
  them suspected of funding terrorist activities
  outside Bosnia. An example is the Haramain
  Islamic Foundation, whose Bosnian branch is
  reportedly tied to al-Gamaat Islamiya, an
  Egyptian group that works closely with bin Laden.
  

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The State of the Art Book Chapter Concluding
remarks

• This chapter summarizes major findings related to
  the role of trans-state identity movements in
  facilitating cooperation between terrorism and
  crime. Our findings draw on comparison of three
  trans-state identity movements, including the
  Bosnian Islamic trans-state movement the
  trans-state movement of the ethnic Albanians,
  centered on the conflict in Kosovo and the
  trans-state Kurdish movement, centered on the
  conflict of the Kurdish Workers Party with
  Turkey. The findings are these
• Driven by economic and political reasons related
  to conflict (ethno)national movements are
  interested in the establishment of collaborative
  relations with trans-state terrorist and
  criminal networks.
• In Bosnia fusion is underway between the
  indigenous Bosnian Islamic Community and the
  transnational Islamic advocacy network. This
  trans-state network now includes mosques,
  madrassas, political organizations and
  publication programs that advocate Salafist
  doctrine. There is also evidence of trans-state
  Islamic advocacy networks engaged in illicit
  business activities.

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The State of the Art Book Chapter Concluding
remarks cont.

• The volume of illegal business in Bosnia is far
  less than in the Albanian and Kurdish networks.
  However, it seems to be exclusively ideologically
  and politically driven, in support of the Islamic
  political program. In contrast, the Albanian and
  the Kurdish networks have made agenda shifts, at
  times replacing political objectives with
  criminal ones.
• Equally important, ad hoc trans-state
  collaborations are unlikely to change the
  political objectives pursued by nationalist
  movements. The BiH government after the war and
  after 09/11 has shown its determination to
  establish control over terrorist and criminal
  networks. The Kosovars, though reportedly
  receiving weapons from Iran and transporting
  drugs from Afghanistan, have not adopted militant
  Islamist goals. And the PKK has collaborated with
  Middle Eastern fighters primarily for material
  support for their nationalist war with Turkey,
  not because of shared Islamic objectives.