Title: Global warming in an unequal world: A global deal for effective action
1- Global warming in an unequal world A global
deal for effective action
2The crisis the science of climate change
- Climate change is real it is already dangerous
heading towards catastrophe. - Climate change is urgent it needs us to act
quickly and drastically - But how? Climate change is linked to economic
growth. Can we re-invent growth?
3- Hockey stick
- CO2
- Temperature
- increase
4Hockey stick science Since 1900, climate warmed
by 0.8ºC. Past 10 year temperature highest since
records started
5Is anthropogenic caused by burning of fossil
fuel for our energy needs
6The challenge what is the least risky target?
- If annual emissions remain at todays level,
greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm
by 2050 - This would mean temperature increase of 3-5C
- The difference in temperature between the last
ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5C - The 2C target is feasible but still dangerous
7Business as usual is 5C even if we stabilise at
current levels increase is dangerous
8Impacts devastation or can we cope?
- Snow cover will contract. Indian glaciers are
beginning to melt fast - Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation
events will increase.. (floods and droughts) - Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will
become more intense - Sea levels are expected to increase intense
debate on how high will this be and by when. But
can we wait????
9(No Transcript)
103-truths Climate change political and economic
challenge
- Is related to economic growth. No one has built a
low carbon economy (as yet) - Is about sharing growth between nations and
between people. The rich must reduce so that the
poor can grow. Create ecological space. - Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted
yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today.
Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a
pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.
11CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to
economic growth
12Drastic reduction needed For 450 ppm (2C)
reduce 85 by 2050
13The gap the challenge to re-invent what we mean
by growth?
14Sharing the ecological and economic space CO2
emissions from fossil fuels in 2005
United States 21.13
Europe 16.58
Rest of the world 57.93
Japan 4.36
15(No Transcript)
16Historical emissions A tonne of CO2 emitted in
1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005
17Contract and converge
181 US citizen
- 107 Bangladeshis
- 134 Bhutanese
- 19 Indians
- 269 Nepalese
- Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for
growth
192007 High on rhetoric. Low on action
- Need urgent action. We are running out of time.
Need deep cuts 50-80 over 1990 levels by 2050 - Kyoto agreed to small change 7 cuts
- Even that failed. US and Australia walked out. EU
emissions increased last year - Pressure on China and India..
20(No Transcript)
21Decreased 3 only because of decrease of
economies under transition. Rich have increased
22- Only UK and Germany have cut.
- But beginning to increase again.
- Gas and reunification impact fading
23Big words and small change
24No energy transition made Little to reduce
energy emissions
25No more kindergarten approach
- Framework for cooperation
- Industrialised countries to take deep cuts (30
by 2020) minimum. US and Australia must join - Emerging rich and rest to participate, not by
taking legally binding cuts but through a
strategy to avoid future emissions. - What is the framework for low-carbon growth
strategy?
26Options exist re-invent growth. Avoid pollution
- We can build clean coal power stations
- Can build distributed power grid, based on
renewable - 18 emissions from land use changes. Can protect
forests Can plant new forests.. -
27Clean, new and buried coal
- Clean Coal Technologies Increase efficiency
- Supercritical high steam pressure and
temperature 40 efficiency low with Indian
coal - FBC/PFBC Suitable for Indian coal smaller
size similar efficiency gains as supercritical - IGCC Convert coal to gas 50 efficiency and
more - expensive
28Clean, new and buried coal
- Most new large plants on supercritical cost
effective RM of old and new plants should be
based on this technology - FBC suitable for distributed generation
- IGCC only high-end technology from climate
perspective - needs technology transfer and
financial assistance
29Clean, new and buried coal
- Coal bed methanation (CBM) and underground coal
gasification (UCG) new coal - CBM recover methane from coal bed, concentrate
it and burn it. - UCG Convert coal into gas underground untested
- water contamination and subsidence major issues
- Both have CO2 emissions similar to gas fired
plants 50 lower
30Clean, new and buried coal
- Carbon-capture and storage burn coal, separate
CO2, compress it and bury it underground - hope
that it will not come out. - Uncertain, site-specific and expensive
mitigation cost up to 50/ tonne CO2 - Dump and forget syndrome constant leakage
monitoring - Chances of accidental releases
- Cant afford bad ideas
31Nuclear
- Cost, safety, proliferation and waste
- Expensive both capital as well as generation
even without including waste disposal costs
32Renewables
39 of Indias primary energy comes from
renewables
33Renewables
34Renewables
35Renewables
- Vicious Cycle - Deployment, reduces cost, but the
high cost deters deployment.
36In our world forests are habitats of people.
Forests have economic value. Protecting forests
needs paying for services paying local
communities to protect forests benefit from its
resources Countries cannot keep forests without
getting economic value Costs for carbon storage
peanuts..
37Options but..
- The South will do what North has done
- Will first get rich add to pollution then
invest in cleaning it up - Will cut forests and convert to agriculture and
then depress the price of food - A low-carbon growth strategy will cost money. The
South will need to invest in efficiency,
pollution control and protecting forests as
forests - This needs change in global framework
38CDM instrument to make this transition. But
designed to fail
- Aim to get cheap emission reduction has lead to
projects which do little. Low hanging fruits.
Cannot pay for real change. - Designed for ineffective action additional to
policy leads to nothing - Designed for mutual self-interest between private
sector not public interest - Has become the Cheap Convoluted Corrupt
Development Mechanism
39Technology the answer?
- Need to cut emissions by 80 by 2050
- Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut
- New (zero-fossil) technologies are not
competitive or limited - Will not work without changes in consumption.
Have to reduce and have to change the way we do
business -
- Business as usual will not work. No soft answers
will work - Not a green party but a green revolution
needed - Will cost. Otherwise we will all pay
40Reinvent the energy system. How?
41No rocket science needed
- Need framework for cooperation
- Need framework that can push for energy
transformation - Best option is to create per capita emission
rights - Use the rights to create global create carbon
market - Use the market (with rules for public good) to
make the transition into low carbon economies
42Not acceptable
43Our position for Bali
- Agree on legally binding emission targets for
rich Annex-1 countries 30 by 2020 - If countries opt out cut penalties stop trade
do not allow them to participate in technology
agreements - This round belongs to the industrialised
countries. The engagement of the South will be
through a financial framework to avoid emissions
44Design for effective action
- Reform CDM so that it is effective countries do
sector-wise plans look at costs and then invest
through CDM - Put a floor of US50 for tonne of carbon so that
it allows for high end technology transfer - Sign technology transfer agreements let rich
countries buy private technologies and make them
available in key sectors
45Politics for future
- Cannot freeze global inequity
- Cannot survive climate change rich or poor
- Climate is not about the failure of the market
- It is about our failure to make the markets work
for public and common good - It is about politics..
46Otherwise road to common hell