Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure

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Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure
Reid EwingDept. of City and Metropolitan
PlanningUniversity of Utah
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www.support.smartgrowthamerica.org/growing_cooler
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Climate Change Is the Ultimate Green Issue
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Chapter 3
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Climate Change Impacts at 2 to 3C

• More than 1/3 of species at risk of extinction
  (corals, polar bears)
• Amazon rainforest Great Lakes ecosystem at risk
  of collapse
• Hundreds of millions displaced from coastal
  areas, at risk of hunger
• Partial deglaciation of Greenland Ice Sheet
  expected to begin sea level to increase 4-6
  meters over centuries to millennia

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Global Warming Fingerprints
Hurricanes Ophelia, Nate, and Maria were among 15
hurricanes that raged across the Atlantic, Gulf
of Mexico, and Caribbean in 2005.
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Global Warming Fingerprints
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Global Warming Fingerprints
J. Madsen and E. Figdor, When It Rains, It Pours
Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of
Extreme Precipitation in the United States,
Environment America Research Policy Center,
December 2007. http//www.environmentamerica.org/u
ploads/oy/ws/oywshWAwZy-EXPsabQKd4A/When-It-Rains-
It-Pours----US---WEB.pdf
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Energy Bill CAFE -10 Fuel GHG by 2025
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VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings
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Chapter 4
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Main Questions Addressed

• What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is
  possible in the United States with compact
  development rather than continuing urban sprawl?
• What reduction in CO2 emissions will accompany
  such a reduction in VMT?
• What policy changes will be required to shift the
  dominant land development pattern from sprawl to
  compact development?

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Portland vs. Raleigh
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35 Less VMT with Compact Development
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Southern Village (40 lower)
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Answer to 1st Question

• 20-40 VMT Reduction for Each Increment of
  Compact Development

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Doing the Math through 2050

• 60-90 Compact
• x
• 67 New Development
• x
• 30 VMT Reduction
• 12-18 Reduction in Metropolitan VMT

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Add Smart Growth -15 VMT ? 2030 CO2 is 14 below
1990
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Chapter 8
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What Would It Take?

• What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2
  reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels?
  
• Will compact development with supportive
  transportation policies be enough?
• If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved
  through pricing, and what price changes would be
  required?

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Urban VMT Reduction
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Compact Development Transit Road
Pricing-Highway Expansion38 VMT reduction
by 2030
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No Ballot Measure Can Be Considered Green If It
Includes a Lot of New Money for Highways
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1995 Report on Induced Travel (with Minority View)
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Short-Term Supply and Demand
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Short-Term Increases in Traffic

• New Trips
• More Distant Destinations
• Mode Shifts
• Route Shifts
• Most important effect according to Dowling et
  al., 1994

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Long-Term Supply and Demand
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Long-Term Increases in Traffic

• Higher Car Ownership
• Reduced Transit Service
• Activity Location Shifts
• Most important effect according to Cervero,
  2002

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Growth of Traffic Over Time
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Cerveros Bottom Lines

• the preponderance of research suggests that
  induced-demand effects are significant, with an
  appreciable share of added capacity being
  absorbed by increases in traffic.
• All that can be said with certainty is that
  induced-demand effects exist and they
  accumulate over time.

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Average Elasticities
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No Transit Measure Can Be Considered Green Unless
It Is Coupled with Transit-Oriented Development
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What is TOD?

• TOD is widely defined as compact, mixed-use
  development near transit facilities with
  high-quality walking environments, not
  necessarily at the expense of automobile access.

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More Than 100 TODs in USA
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High Mode Shares for TOD Residents
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Introducing the 3Ds
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Density
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33 Units per Acre (gross)
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15 Units per Acre
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Diversity
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Seamless Pattern
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Design
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Simple Correlations with Design Variables
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Pedestrian-Friendly Design
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Pedestrian-Friendly Design
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Effect of Density Bay Area Rail
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Effect of Diversity
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Effect of Design