Influence Diagrams are usually solved using software
Freeware and Commercial software exists
For the exam follow procedure used in todays lecture
2 Simple tricks for Solving Influence Diagrams
If you have a decision tree the same squares and circles will appear as decision boxes and events respectively on the influence diagram
If 2 circles (event with outcomes) are identical they appear only once on the influence diagram (compares 4 an 5 of the Pennzoil problem court decision appears only once)
In addition to the above measures appear on influence diagrams to add more meaning examples include cost debt revenue
Connect them using arrows to indicate influence and information flow relationships
3 The Texaco - Pennzoil Case In early 1984 Pennzoil and Getty Oil agreed to the terms of a merger. But before any formal documents could be signed Texaco offered Getty Oil a substantially better price and Gordon Getty who controlled most of the Getty stock reneged on the Pennzoil deal and sold to Texaco. Naturally Pennzoil felt as if it had been dealt with unfairly and immediately filed a lawsuit against Texaco alleging that Texaco had interfered illegally in the Pennzoil-Getty negotiations. Pennzoil won the case in late 1985 it was awarded 11.1 billion the largest judgment ever in the United States. A Texas appeals court reduced the judgment by 2 billion but interest and penalties drove the total back up to 10.3 billion. James Kinnear Texacos chief executive officer had said that Texaco would file for bankruptcy if Pennzoil obtained court permission to secure the judgment by filing liens against Texacos assets. Furthermore Kinnear had promised to fight the case all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary arguing in part that Pennzoil had not followed Security and Exchange Commission regulations in its negotiations with Getty. In April 1987 just before Pennzoil began to file the liens Texaco offered to pay Pennzoil 2 billion to settle the entire case. Hugh Liedtke chairman of Pennzoil indicated that his advisors were telling him that a settlement of between 3 billion and 5 billion would be fair. 4 Pennzoil Decision Tree Solve right to left 5 Steps to draw Influence Diagram from a Decision Tree
Draw the squares for decision boxes circles for events with outcomes and a payoff box
Texaco Reaction Final Court Decision Accept 2 Billion Pennzoil Reaction 6 Steps to draw Influence Diagram from a Decision Tree
Write the alternative (choices) for decision box and outcome for events
Texaco Reaction Accept 2 Billion Final Court Decision Pennzoil Reaction 7 Steps to draw Influence Diagram from a Decision Tree
Connect them meaningfully but not as a flow chart
Texaco Reaction Accept 2 Billion Final Court Decision Information Influence Pennzoil Reaction 8 Developing the table Write the headings using the decision tree from left to right 9 Developing the table Fill column 2 10 Developing the table Fill column 3 Pennzoil reaction is valid for only 3B counter offer from Texaco however you should write them for all the outcomes 11 Developing the table Fill column 4 Court decision is valid for Refuse as marked in circle but write for all the rows 12 Solving the diagram Fill the pay off column. Solve right to left 13 Solving the diagram Revised Payoff Table (Using Expected Values for Court Decision) Multiply weights and values and find the additive value function Texaco Reaction Accept 2 Billion Final Court Decision Pennzoil Reaction 14 Solving the diagram Texaco Reaction Accept 2 Billion Final Court Decision 15 Solving the diagram Texaco Reaction Accept 2 Billion Final Court Decision Accept Expected Payoff 2 Billion ( Billion) Accept 2 2.0 Offer 5 4.63
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