Introduction to USAIDs Vulnerability and Adaptation V

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Introduction to USAIDs Vulnerability and
Adaptation (VA) Manual

• John Furlow, Global Climate Change Team, USAID
• Glen Anderson, International Resources Group

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What we will cover

• Why adapt?
• What USAID has done
• What USAID can do to help
• How to use the VA Guide
• Illustration of the VA approach

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Climate Change Impacts

• Select Impacts
• Increased hunger
• Spread of disease
• Changes in water availability
• Infrastructure damage
• Change in forest cover
• Amplified hazards
• Sea level rise
• Loss of biodiversity

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Why Adapt to Climate Change?
Ethiopia Rainfall, GDP, and Ag GDP

• Developing country economies concentrated in
  climate sensitive sectors
• 70 of developing country populations derive
  income from agriculture

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Ethiopia Rainfall, Agriculture, GDP Growth
Click and add insert graphic here (5 high x 8.5
wide maximum).
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USAID Regulation 216
22 CFR 216.1(b) states that in addition to
identifying environmental impacts, it is USAID
policy to (4) Define environmental limiting
factors that constrain development and identify
and carry out activities that assist in restoring
the renewable resource base on which sustained
development depends. Climate change - potential
limiting factor to consider in project design
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Climate Change and Sustainability
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Adaptation and The UNFCCC Funding

• Funding for Adaptation
• Convention Funds
• Least Developed Countries Fund
• Special Climate Change Fund
• Based on voluntary contributions
• Kyoto Protocol
• Adaptation Fund
• Based on 2 levy on CDM transactions
• Developing Countries on AF Board
• Bank/DFID (outside convention)
• Pilot Program on Climate Resilience
• Effort to bring CC into planning

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What Is Adaptation?

• IPCC adaptation is Adjustment in systems in
  response to actual or expected climatic stimuli
  or their effects. . .
• Process of examining and understanding
  vulnerabilities
• Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability,
  build resilience

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What Is Vulnerability?
Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop
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Assessing Exposure

• Exposure addresses whether an asset is exposed to
  weather and climate variables
• What Development Challenge are you addressing?
• What assets are most important?
• Are they exposed to weather/climate variables?
• Which variables?
• Sources of information
• Observations/Memories
• Have there been impacts in the past?
• Maps
• Locate Assets, compare to threats
• Models (Glen will address)

Surface Water Sources Fall Line
Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop
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Assessing Sensitivity

• Sensitivity addresses the impact of the climate
  variable on a valued asset
• In past events, were similar assets affected
  differently?
• Structural damages?
• Crop losses
• Sedimentation
• Why were there different impacts?
• What made some assets more resilient?

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Adaptive Capacity

• Ability of society to respond to and reduce risks
  of exposure and sensitivity
• Elements of Adaptive Capacity
• Access to information
• Access to financial, technical, human resources
• Social capital and cohesion
• Redundancy of transportation and information
  systems
• Economic diversification

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Address Controllable Stresses

• Multiple stresses affect assets
• Assess the stresses that affect assets
• Reduce as many stresses as possible
• Reducing some stress may be adequate for asset to
  survive
• For example
• A small African country cannot reduce global
  carbon emissions, which affect rainfall.
• A small country can harvest water, reduce plastic
  waste, which affect infiltration of water into
  soils

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Adapting to Climate Change and Variability

• USAID Adaptation Goals
• Educate project planners
• Provide climate change information for
  non-experts
• Increase resilience of projects
• Identify opportunities for adaptation
• Improve planning processes
• Incorporate adaptation into project planning
• Approach
• Adaptation Guidance Manual
• Tools
• Stakeholder engagement

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Adaptation to Climate Change

• Philosophy
• Improve Adaptive Capacity Through Economic
  Development
• Work at Project Level to Improve Resilience
  Through Design
• Stakeholder Involvement Essential
• Climate Change is a stressor, not a competing
  sector

Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop
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Adaptation Guidance Manual
Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop
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Integrating Climate Information into Planning
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USAIDs Adaptation case studies

• Honduras coastal zone development
• Mali rice and potato production
• South Africa municipal water sources
• Thailand fisheries, rice production
• Madagascar protected areas management and
  livelihoods
• Coastal Hazards building resilience to multiple
  hazards
• Andes/Himalaya adapting to a world without
  glaciers

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La Ceiba, Honduras Coastal Issues

• Coastal city at mouth of two rivers
• Tourism destination and staging site for tourism
  upstream on the Cangrejal River
• Climate-related concerns include flooding and
  storm surges
• Coordinated with the USAID-funded MIRA
  (Integrated Management of Environmental
  Resources) Project implemented by IRG

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La Ceiba Development Project Objectives

• Develop Coastal Tourism
• Develop river-based tourism (rafting, hiking)
• Watershed Protection, restoration
• Construction of beachfront boardwalk
• Reduce flooding

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Asset Coastal tourist infrastucture

• Vulnerabilities
• Exposure (Clim) flooding from storm surge, urban
  rains, river flooding
• Sensitivity (NC) Buildings right on beach, no
  set back, poor building design
• Adapt. Cap (NC) Low codes not enforced,
  drainage not understood

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La Ceiba Vulnerabilities and Stresses

• Asset Forest, national park
• Vulnerabilities
• Exposure Steep slopes (NC), heavy rains (C)
• Sensitivity Heavy deforestation (NC)
• Adapt. Cap Low forestry laws not enforced,
  need for fuel, many poor

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La Ceiba Uncertainties

• Uncertainties
• Change in Temp
• 1.5 o C
• Change in Rainfall
• 11 heavy events, less total rain annually
• Change in Sea Level
• 20cm
• Change in Storm frequency/intensity

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La Ceiba Adaptation Options

• Risk management (1) Determine acceptable risks
  (2) Environmental education
• Coastal zone (developed areas) (1) Build groins
  to protect against erosion (2) Sand pumping (3)
  Build breakwaters
• Coastal Zone (less developed areas) (1)
  Set-backs (2) Zoning and building codes (3)
  Construction of houses on stilts
• Rio Cangrejal flooding (1) Improved design and
  higher levees in most vulnerable locations (2)
  Limit deforestation and promote reforestation
  (3) Construct a flood control dam (4) Dredging
  of river (5) Flood warning system
• Urban drainage (1) Accommodate/adapt to
  flooding (2) Install drainage systems

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Zignasso, Mali Water Allocation

• Small agrarian community in Southwestern Mali
• Climate-related concerns include recent trend
  toward hotter and drier weather
• Potential link to USAID-funded PRODEPAM Program
  (Program for the Development of Agricultural
  Productivity in Mali)

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Zignasso Adaptation Options

• Irrigation infrastructure
• Water harvesting
• Better equipment and storage capacity
• Improved credit markets (to encourage storage to
  take advantage of better prices)
• Grow trees for shade, wood, fodder (womens
  suggestion)

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Polokwane, SA Water Supply

• Capital city of Limpopo Province and market and
  trading hub for surrounding rural areas
• Original Plan Construct a new dam and reservoir
  to supply Polokwane and agricultural areas
• GCC Risks
• Chronic water shortages
• Projections of rainfall for 2050 uncertain,
  depending on model
• Planned reservoir inadequate to capture high
  scenario runoff
• Planned reservoir ineffective with low scenario
  runoff

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Results of GCC assessment

• Stakeholder Engagement with DWAF enhanced
• Recommendations included
• Delay action on costly infrastructure
• Explore Demand Side Management
• Explore water recycling
• Chapter on climate change added to the DWAF
  Olifants Management Report, used by regional and
  national government and provides planning
  analysis for the next 50 years.

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Madagascar Protected Areas and Livelihoods

• Original Plan CI, WWF study climate impacts on
  protected areas and identify new areas for
  protection
• GCC role People Count -- Add livelihoods
  component
• Elucidate the role of climate change on people
• Elucidate role of people on protected areas
• Engage Government in process

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Results of GCC Engagement

• Stakeholders engaged in discussion of protected
  areas set-asides
• Recognition of conflicting goals of agriculture,
  protected areas, tourism
• Recognition of needs of people, role of
  livelihoods in successful environmental
  stewardship
• GOM, USAID, other donors looking to integrate
  climate change, livelihoods, environmental
  stewardship

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Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop
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Lower Songkram River Basin, Thailand

• Tributary of Mekong River in Northeast Thailand
• Climate-related issues include precipitation and
  length of rainy and dry seasons

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Lower Songkram River Basin, Thailand

• Case study added climate component to IUCN
  livelihoods study
• Climate scenarios and impacts simulated
• Stakeholders and regional representatives of
  National ministries prioritized adaptation
  measures in separate working groups

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Context for Freshwater Case Study

• Marshall Islands (RMI) freshwater resources and
  climate case study
• Follow-on activity to coastal VA training
  conducted by URIs Coastal Resources Center and
  IRG
• Freshwater case study selected because of level
  of interest/concern in workshop

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Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI)
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Marshall Island 29 atolls and 5 islands

• 70 square miles
• 7 feet average elevation
• 56,000 people, half living on Majuro
• Unemployment rate is 31
• Annual rainfall in Majuro is 130 inches

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• Step 1 Screening for climate sensitivity

• Initial screening for climate vulnerability RMI
  VA workshop
• Follow-up screening by project team
• Assessment of non-climate stressors on freshwater
  resources
• Revised vulnerability assessment

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Freshwater resources of Majuro

• Airport runway catchment and storage reservoirs
  (38 million gallons
• Rooftop rainwater collection houses,
  businesses, public buildings
• Desalination for bottled water (two companies)
• Emergency desalination equipment

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Freshwater resources of Majuro

• Freshwater lens at one end of the island
• Potential to supply 400,000 gallons per day
• Unknown number and condition of private wells

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Non-climate stressors (1)

• Water demand and access issues
• Pollution latrines, animal wastes, pesticides,
  co-disposal of hazardous wastes with solid wastes

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Non-climate stressors (2)

• Water management
• Excess evaporation
• Leaks in distribution network
• Overdrafting freshwater lens

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Non-climate stressors (3)

• Poorly-designed and maintained rainwater
  collection systems

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Climate Impacts on Freshwater Resources

• Climate impacts
• Drought
• Changes in precipitation
• Increased temperature
• Storms high winds and waves
• Sea level rise

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Vulnerability assessment

• For each climate impact, key assets (people,
  resources, infrastructure) were identified
• Each assets vulnerability to climate change was
  assessed in terms of
• Exposure and sensitivity
• Capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate
  change
• Handout provides a summary of the vulnerability
  assessment

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• Step 2 Identify adaptations

• Initial list of adaptations developed by small
  group participants in RMI workshop
• Project team revised the initial list

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Grouping of adaptations

• For initial listing, adaptation groupings were
• Policy, capacity building, infrastructure and
  best practices
• For the case study, adaptation groupings were
• Improved management of freshwater resources
• Preparing for drought emergencies
• Managing demand
• Outreach on water management and climate
• Handout provides a list of adaptations

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• Step 3 Conduct analysis

• Evaluation criteria
• Time period (to facilitate prioritization)
• Ease of implementation
• Costs
• Effectiveness
• Handout provides summary of evaluation for
  improved management of freshwater resources

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• Step 4 Select course of action

• Case study provides
• Short and medium term priorities for adaptation
  measures
• Recommendations to extend analysis and strategy
  to outer islands
• Ministry of Resources and Development (MRD) has
  endorsed the recommended measures

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• Step 5 Implementation Plan

• MRD is requesting Cabinet approval to prepare
  nation freshwater resource policy
• MRD has requested USAID support to implement
  selected recommendations

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Follow-up technical assistance to RMI

• National Freshwater Resources Policy and Action
  Plan
• Roll-out of freshwater resource audit in outer
  islands
• School Met in outer islands
• Rainwater harvesting systems
• Community water system pilot project
• Rooftop system audits and capacity building
• Outreach/awareness program

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Small Group Exercise Instructions

• To be added

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Thank you