Analyse av skipsfartsmarkedene i lys av finanskrisen HAUGESUNDKONFERANSEN Rica Maritime Hotel 10. fe

1
Analyse av skipsfartsmarkedenei lys av
finanskrisenHAUGESUNDKONFERANSENRica Maritime
Hotel10. februar 2009
2
Any hopes for shipping?
 
 
 
Singapore, December 28 2008
3
Freight rate developments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4
Table of content

• World economic outlook
• Impact of financial crisis
• Containership market
• Dry bulk shipping market
• Oil tanker market
• Future trends in shipping

 
 
 
5
Table of content
World economic outlook
 
 
 
6
World economic outlook
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
International Monetary Fund
 
 

• Financial markets in turmoil
• Developed economies stagnant or in recession
• Emerging economies slowing down markedly
• Prospects of US-led recovery in 2010-onwards

7
US housing crisis only tip of the iceberg

• US subprime crisis revealed larger credit bubble
• Rooted in international trade and financial
  relations

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8
China foreign exchange reserves

• Chinas trade surplus and foreign direct
  investment boosted foreign exchange reserves
• Approaching USD 2000 bn
• 70 in US dollar-denominated securities
• Lent to the US against low interests

 
 
 
 
9
US dollar under pressure

• Because of the lower interest rates, US dollar
  was weakened
• Strengthened purchasing power of European and
  Asian buyers

 
 
 
 
10
Driving commodity prices

• Depreciated dollar helped drive commodity prices
• Investors seeking higher returns in the
  commodity market
• Liberalized regulation attracting hedge funds

 
 
 
 
11
US economy deteriorating

• US trade and budget deficits deteriorated
• Credit bubble bursted
• Unemployment rising sharply
• Consumer confidence and spending down

 
 
 
 
12
OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK
13
US stimulus package must work

• US economic stimulus package must work
• Approved stimulus package of USD 800 bn
• Combination of spending and tax cuts

 
 
 
 
14
Confidence in credit market must improve

• TED-spread measures difference in Treasury Bills
  and the Eurodollar Bills
• Price discrepancy is an indicator of credit risk
• Decreasing TED-spread indicates decreasing risk

 
 
 
 
15
Confidence in credit market must improve
Containership market

• TED-spread measures difference in Treasury Bills
  and the Eurodollar Bills
• Price discrepancy is an indicator of credit risk
• Decreasing TED-spread indicates decreasing risk

 
 
 
 
16
Trade slowing down fast

• Trade growth is falling to zero
• World economic recessions means less growth

 
 
 
 
17
Dramatic drop in trade from China
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

• China-Europe WB is 70 percent of all Asia-Europe
  trades
• China-US EB is 77 percent of all Transpacific
  trades
• Intra-Asia slowing because of less Western sales

18
Orderbook skewed towards larger vessels

• Most orders for Post-Panamax vssls
• Fewer than 10 Handy and feeders
• Lacks 1 mill. TEU of small vessls
• 1000 vessels of 1000 TEU

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
19
Fixture activity reinvigorated
Dry bulk market
Dry bulk market

• Flurry of fixtures for Capesize and Panamax bulk
  carriers
• Reinvigorated activity in the Pacific, extending
  into the Atlantic basin
• Freight rates moving upward on the bolstered
  activity
• Burst before Lunar New Year holidays

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20
Steel and iron ore stocks

• Fixture activity to replenish stocks
• Iron ore stocks will rise from Feb/Mar 2009 to
  about 70 mill.
• Stock build-up and more available vessels for
  charter
• Ramp-up in steel production will absorb vessel
  glut

21
Steel production bottoming out in Q2 2009
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

• Chinas steel industry has reduced production to
  70-80 of capacity
• Expect steel mills to ramp up production to over
  500 million tons p.a. in 09

22
Iron ore imports will surge in 2009
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

• Chinas iron ore imports are likely to exceed 440
  million tons in 2009
• Represents an increase of 6 year-on-year

23
Scheduled newbuilding deliveries

• Newbuilding deliveries will come in big numbers
  from 2H 2009 and in 2010/11
• Based on the scheduled deliveries, the influx
  will be as follows
• 2009 Abt 70 mill. dwt
• 2010 Abt 110 mill. dwt
• 2011 Abt. 76 mill. dwt
• 2012 Abt. 30 mill. dwt

24
Newbuilding deliveries, breakdown by yard
25
Fixture activity reinvigorated
Oil tanker market

• Flurry of fixtures for Capesize and Panamax bulk
  carriers
• Reinvigorated activity in the Pacific, extending
  into the Atlantic basin
• Freight rates moving upward on the bolstered
  activity
• Burst before Lunar New Year holidays

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
26
World oil demand

• Oil demand growth is expected to be negative in
  2009
• Rebound with US-led economic growth in 2010
• Moderate growth potential in developed economies
• Strong growth in emerging economies China and
  India

27
Non-OPEC and OPEC production
28
Non-OPEC Depletion accellerates
Source KBC
29
Untimely fleet growth
30
Total exports
 
 
31
New orders
32
Delivery of new orders
33
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