COASTAL CLIMATE EXTENSION AND WHAT IT MEANS TO COASTAL MANAGERS

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COASTAL CLIMATE EXTENSION AND WHAT IT MEANS TO
COASTAL MANAGERS
Gregory A. Zielinski North and South Carolina Sea
Grant
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WHAT IS CLIMATE EXTENSION?

• Development, interpretation, evaluation and
  distribution of information
• related to the past, present and future climate
  and weather events
• of a particular region (e.g., Southeast and
  Caribbean)

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WHAT IS CLIMATE EXTENSION?

• including the impact of those changes
• on the public, on stakeholders dependent on the
  resources of the region and on the environment as
  a whole (e.g., coastal ecosystems).

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HOW EXTENSION SPECIALISTS CAN WORK WITH COASTAL
MANAGERS?

• Both directly and as liaison with State
  Climatologists, Government Agencies
• SUCH AS

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TERMINOLOGY

• Weather vs Climate
• Normals
• Based on moving 30-year increments
• At present average for 1971-2000, will change in
  2011 to average for 1981-2010

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ROLE OF CLIMATE

• What is climate doing?
• What are the impacts?
• and, how we answer these questions

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CLIMATIC TRENDS
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CLIMATIC DATA

• Be aware! Not all data sets are created equal
• Data sets
• 1st order stations airports
• Co-op Network from National Weather Service
• Historical Climatology Network (HCN)
• Climate Reference Network (CRN)

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FUTURE CLIMATE

• Models temperature vs precipitation
• More Important Regional Changes!

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REGIONAL CLIMATE

• Compared to global?
• Influence of teleconnections and cycles
• Phase of cycle
• Impacts also may differ within the region
• Idea of new environmental gradients across the
  Southeast
• Critical teleconnections

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ENSO

• El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 3-7 yr
  cycle
• End members El Niño vs La Niña

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NAO

• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 20-yr cycle
• End members and winter impact

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AMO

• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
  20-30-yr cycle in SST
• Impact on hurricane numbers and intensity

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IMPACTS (Interrelated)

• Sea Level Rise
• Precipitation and Stream Runoff/Water Quality
• Marine Fisheries/Estuaries (Shellfish) and Sea
  Surface Temperatures
• Vegetation/Agricultural Changes
• Biological Changes/Habitats/Wetlands
• Air Quality
• Extreme Events Storms!!!!

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SEA LEVEL RISE

• Projected global sea level rise 40-50 cm (1.5
  ft) by 2100
• Southeast U.S. Average rates of 0.3 to gt 3
  inches/decade as of 2000

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SEA LEVEL RISE TRENDS

• Tidal gauges Problems/Relative rates

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IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

• Erosion and land loss
• Salt water intrusion
• Salinity gradients in estuaries
• Storm impacts (damage) more effective?

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OTHER CONCERNS

• Agriculture
• Less irrigation overall if wetter, but more
  droughts (variability)?
• Biological concerns
• Habitat changes, warmer waters?
• Water quality, droughts?
• Air quality
• Warmer conditions, more ozone?

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EXTREME EVENTS

• Types and impacts
• Function of time and space
• Long-term gradual (droughts) vs
• Instantaneous and episodic (storms)

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HURRICANES

• Impacts
• Wind
• Storm surge
• Rain/flooding
• Controls on impact
• Intensity
• Track
• Timing related to tide level
• Storm motion

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LANDFALL CONTROLS

• Strength and position of Bermuda High
• Whats happening across U.S.

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NOREASTERS

• Impacts
• One exception 93 Superstorm w/9-12 ft. storm
  surge in FL
• More erosion year-to-year (Atlantic Coast vs
  Gulf) than hurricanes

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IMPACT OF WINTER STORMS

• Categorize winter storms based on intensity and
  duration
• Relate to coastal processes specific to Atlantic
  Coast

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WAVE CLIMATE

• Circulation patterns
• Wind patterns
• Orientation of shoreline

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INSURANCE!

• Example in SC Wind pool
• Rates increased by 35 in October along with
  increase in deductibles
• 3 in tier 1 closest to coast and 2 in tier 2
• With future climate and increased sea level?

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DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION

• e-Newsletter
• Web site
• Archive of e-newsletters
• Lectures Schools, organizations, government
  agencies/meetings
• Workshops (participate and convene)

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APPLIED RESEARCH

• Fresh water discharge and salt-water intrusion
  within the Yadkin-Pee Dee River system, SC/NC
• Relate storm types and circulation patterns to
  coastal erosion and sediment transport

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