The Economic Outlook for Connecticut Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President Fede

1
The Economic Outlook for ConnecticutRae D.
RosenSenior Economist and Assistant Vice -
President Federal Reserve Bank of New
YorkDecember 7 2005
2
Key Points

• Connecticuts economy is growing but the recovery
  in employment continues to lag the pickup in
  output.
• The pace of recovery in employment is on par with
  the expansion of the 1990s.
• Nominal job growth less than one percent is
  likely this year.
• In an era of slow job growth attention to
  infrastructure and issues that affect corporate
  retention could help the region maintain its
  competitiveness and leverage the existing
  economic base.

3
Connecticut Expansion Patterns Increase from
Employment Trough to Peak
Percent
Feb. 1983 Feb. 1989
Dec. 1992 Dec. 2000
Apr. 2004 Oct. 2005
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
calculations.
4
Labor Force Growth Slows
Percent
Percent
United States
New York
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
calculations.
5
Second District Unemployment Rates
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
calculations data as of September.
6
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent
change from 12 months earlier
Percent
Percent
United States
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
calculations.
7
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent
change from 12 months earlier
Percent
Percent
Massachusetts
Connecticut
US
Hartford
Stamford
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
calculations.
8
Growth in Service Jobs change October 2005 /
October 2004
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
Calculations.
9
Wages and SalariesPercent change from 4 quarters
earlier
Percent
Percent
Massachusetts
United States
Connecticut
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY
calculations.
10
Personal IncomePercent change from 4 quarters
earlier
Percent
Percent
Massachusetts
United States
New York
Connecticut
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis FRBNY
calculations.
11
Home PricesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier
Percent
Percent
New York
Massachusetts
United States
Connecticut
Source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight.
12
Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with
Installments 90 Days Past Due
Percent
Percent
United States
Connecticut
New York
Source Mortgage Bankers Association.
13
Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in
Foreclosure Started During the Quarter
Percent
Percent
Connecticut
New York
United States
Source Mortgage Bankers Association.
14
Office Vacancy Rates
Percent
Percent
Metropolitan Stamford
Hartford
United States-Metropolitan
Metropolitan NYC
Source Coldwell Banker Cushman and Wakefield.
15
Connecticut Net Migration
Returns
Returns
12
Source Internal Revenue Service Statistics of
Income.
16
Connecticut Migration
Returns
Returns
Connecticut Out
Connecticut In
11
13
Source Internal Revenue Service Statistics of
Income.
17
Net Domestic and International Migration April
2000 to December 2004
Source Internal Revenue Service.