Title: The Economic Outlook for Connecticut Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President Fede
1 The Economic Outlook for ConnecticutRae D. RosenSenior Economist and Assistant Vice - President Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkDecember 7 2005 2 Key Points
Connecticuts economy is growing but the recovery in employment continues to lag the pickup in output.
The pace of recovery in employment is on par with the expansion of the 1990s.
Nominal job growth less than one percent is likely this year.
In an era of slow job growth attention to infrastructure and issues that affect corporate retention could help the region maintain its competitiveness and leverage the existing economic base.
3 Connecticut Expansion Patterns Increase from Employment Trough to Peak Percent Feb. 1983 Feb. 1989 Dec. 1992 Dec. 2000 Apr. 2004 Oct. 2005 Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY calculations. 4 Labor Force Growth Slows Percent Percent United States New York Massachusetts Connecticut Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY calculations. 5 Second District Unemployment Rates Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY calculations data as of September. 6 Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent United States Connecticut Massachusetts Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY calculations. 7 Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier Percent Percent Massachusetts Connecticut US Hartford Stamford Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY calculations. 8 Growth in Service Jobs change October 2005 / October 2004 Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY Calculations. 9 Wages and SalariesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Percent Massachusetts United States Connecticut Source Bureau of Labor Statistics FRBNY calculations. 10 Personal IncomePercent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Percent Massachusetts United States New York Connecticut Source Bureau of Economic Analysis FRBNY calculations. 11 Home PricesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Percent New York Massachusetts United States Connecticut Source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. 12 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due Percent Percent United States Connecticut New York Source Mortgage Bankers Association. 13 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter Percent Percent Connecticut New York United States Source Mortgage Bankers Association. 14 Office Vacancy Rates Percent Percent Metropolitan Stamford Hartford United States-Metropolitan Metropolitan NYC Source Coldwell Banker Cushman and Wakefield. 15 Connecticut Net Migration Returns Returns 12 Source Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income. 16 Connecticut Migration Returns Returns Connecticut Out Connecticut In 11 13 Source Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income. 17 Net Domestic and International Migration April 2000 to December 2004 Source Internal Revenue Service.
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