Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among

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Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability
and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change
Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina

• Project Coordinator Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de
  Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México DF
• Project Duration 3 years

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RESEARCH QUESTIONS

• How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of
  institutional change in Mexico and Argentina
  affecting the vulnerabilities of different types
  of farm systems and their capacities to adapt to
  climatic variability and change?
• Focusing on current adaptation and vulnerability
• Goal of identifying institutional constraints to
  adaptation

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Link between Institutional Change and Adaptation

• Represents an impact to farmers affects
  stability of livelihoods through time
• Circumscribes resource use and access, decision
  flexibility
• In context of Neoliberalism, markets play
  critical roles in opportunities and constraints
  for adaptation
• Institutions may facilitate adaptation via better
  use of climate information among other options

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Climate information
Impacts Exposure
Perceptions, impacts knowledge

Flexibility, Stability, Resource Access
Climate
Policy, Markets

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Vulnerability
Farm-level
Macro-level
Opportunities/ Constraints
Adaptation Capacity
Recommendations to facilitate adaptation
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RESEARCH SITES

• Small-scale export Veracruz and Córdoba
• Large-scale diversified export Tamaulipas and
  Córdoba

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Córdoba Province Argentina
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Climate Analysis

• Drivers of regional and local variability
• Trends in temperature, precipitation
• Extreme events
• Generation of climate change scenarios
• Downscaling to required spatial scale of analysis
  
• Sensitivity of crops and agroecosystem

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Institutional Analysismethods

• Review of policy and program documents
• Analysis of statistical data at for trends and
  access to key services and resources (1980
  2002)
• Trends in relevant output and input prices
• Structured interviews with stakeholders
• Stakeholder workshops
• Stakeholder climate information needs and use

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Farm Level Analysismethods

• Focus groups
• Participatory Rural Appraisal
• Impact matrix
• In-depth interviews
• Analysis of changes in livelihood strategies
• Household livelihood surveys

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Farm-level Analysisadaptative capacity

• Focused on three attributes of adaptation
• Flexibility
• Diversity of agricultural system ()
• Livelihood/Income diversity ()
• Resource base (endowments) (-/)
• Tendencies and changes in the above
• Stability
• Exposure to/ impact of market risk (-)
• Exposure to/ impact of climatic risk (-)
• Degree of variability/change in rural economy (-)
• Tendencies and changes in the above

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Farm Level Analysis adaptive capacity

• Resource Access
• Access to financial resources (credit) ()
• Participation in support programs ()
• Participation in social programs (/-)
• Irrigation access()
• Social organization and networks ()
• Market access (-/)
• Tendencies and changes in the above

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Methods still under consideration

• Establishing coping range and thresholds for each
  case study
• Application of option theory to understand
  decisions and risk perception
• Scenario construction (bottom-up storylines)