Decision Making in Groups

1
The mob has no judgment, no discretion, no
direction, no discrimination, no
consistency. Cicero madness is the exception in
individuals but the rule in groups.

Nietzsche When "a 100 clever heads join a group,
one big nincompoop is the result.
Carl Jung
Decision Making in Groups

2
People often questions the value of groups

• Why do people so frequently use groups to make
  decisions?
• Are groups decisions superior to individual
  decisions?
• How do people, and groups, even make decisions
  are they rational or irrational?
• Should decisions be made carefully or
  intuitively?

3
Why Work in Groups?

• more people more information
• more people to do more work
• more people means people can do what they are
  best at
• groups can discuss, process information (check
  for errors, etc.)
• groups have standards for deciding (e.g.,
  majority rules)
• people are more likely to follow through if part
  of a group that decided

4
Why Not?

• sometimes the group doesn't recognize the correct
  problem, even if proposed
• groups oversample shared information
• sometimes work done by just a few
• discussion can be manipulated
• groups sometimes make riskier decisions
• groups sometimes make horrible decisions when
  very cohesive (groupthink)

5
Functional Model of Decision Making
Orientation

• Orientation
• Development of shared mental model
• Tendency to skip this step

6
Remembering Information
Discussion
Exchanging Information
Processing Information

• Remembering information
• collective memory Cross-cueing and transactive
  memory
• weakness in group memory Importance of keeping
  records
• Exchanging information Acquiring and sharing
  data
• Processing information Collective review of
  information

7

Decision

• Decision Social decision schemes
• Delegation
• Statistical aggregation
• Voting
• Consensus (discussion to unanimity)
• Random choice

8
Decision Reached

• Implementation
• Evaluating the decision
• Adhering to the decision Coch and French (1948)
• Vrooms normative model of decision making
• Types of procedures Autocratic, consultative,
  group
• Procedure must fit the problem to be solved and
  the decision to be made

Implementation
Evaluating the Decision
Adhering to the Decision
9
Denver Airport
Enron
Abilene paradox
1.7 billion 300 million
Which is not to say that groups always make good
decisions
10
What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of
Decision-Making Groups?

• Group discussion pitfalls
• Group discussion pitfalls
• Information processing limitations leveling,
  assimilation, sharpening
• Poor communication skills
• Decisional avoidance (procrastination,
  bolstering, satisficing)

11
What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of
Decision-Making Groups?

• Shared information bias
• Oversampling shared information leads to poorer
  decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed
  by considering the unshared information more
  closely.
• Factors that increase (leadership style) and
  decrease (using a GDSS) the bias
• Judgment errors and heuristic biases
• Sins of omission and commission
• Sins of imprecision Heuristics

12
Polarization and Risk

• Group polarization A shift in the direction of
  greater extremity in individuals' responses

13
Why Do Groups Make Riskier Decisions than
Individuals?

• Social comparison theory
• Persuasive-arguments theory
• Risk-supported wins social decision scheme

14
Groupthink

• Janiss theory of groupthink
• Example Kennedys advisory group planning the
  Bay of Pigs covert op

15
Groupthink

• The theory identifies symptoms, causes, and
  possible cures

Symptoms
Causes Cohesion, etc
Concurrence Seeking
Defective Decision Making Strategies
Fiasco
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Symptoms

• Overestimation of the group (illusions of
  invulnerability, illusions of morality)
• Close-mindedness (rationalizations, stereotypes
  about the outgroup)
• Pressures toward uniformity (self-censorship, the
  illusion of unanimity, direct pressure on
  dissenters, self-appointed mindguards).
• Pluralistic ignorance and the Abilene Paradox
  (Harvey, 1988)
• Entrapment and sunk costs
• Defective decision-making processes

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Causes
18
How Can Groupthink Be Prevented?

• Limiting premature seeking of concurrence
• Open style of leadership
• Devils advocate, subgroup discussions
• Correcting misperceptions and biases
• Using effective decision-making techniques