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COLLABORATION in the IFPS Era Paul Howerton Wichita, KS

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Title: COLLABORATION in the IFPS Era Paul Howerton Wichita, KS


1
COLLABORATIONin the IFPS EraPaul Howerton -
Wichita, KS
2
Outline
  • Reasons for collaboration
  • Influences on collaboration
  • Tools
  • 12Planet
  • ISC
  • Collaboration dos and donts
  • Collaboration experiences during NDFD prototype
  • Unresolved issues

3
Collaboration vs.Coordination
  • Collaboration - exchanging ideas to reach a
    common forecast solution
  • Coordination - notifying surrounding offices of
    your forecast

4
My forecast vs. NWS forecast
5
How Good is Good Enough?Initial Collaboration
Triggers
  • MaxT/MinT/T/Td - 5 deg (7 deg where elev. diff.
    500 ft.)
  • PoP - 20
  • Sky - 25 (40 where elev. diff. 500 ft.)
  • Wind - 10 kts (15 kts where elev. diff. 500
    ft.)
  • QPF - 0.25/6 hr
  • Snow - 2 inches (only for homogenous situations)
  • Free Air Wind - 15 kts
  • Snow Level - 1000 ft
  • Wx - Liquid/freezing/frozen (cannot check in ISC
    Discrep)
  • http//www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/IFPS/ISC.htm

6
Influences on Collaboration
  • Schedules/duties
  • Order and method of weather element production
  • Forecaster philosophy
  • Office philosophy
  • The forecasters knowledge of meteorology and
    his/her ability to communicate it

7
Schedules/Duties
  • How an office breaks down duties matters
  • Routine/Update vs Short/Long term vs
    Public/Aviation
  • Adding new day 7 deadline of 1745Z
  • Doing days 4-7 at same time is efficient
  • Pertinent model data available
  • If ensembles later show a change in forecast is
    needed, then collaborate on those aspects
  • Need to start at about the same time for most
    effective collaboration
  • Everyone working on a subset of entire database

8
An Extended Forecast Timeline
  • 13-16z Collaborate major issues and edit grids
  • HPC currently experimenting with preliminary
    extended discussion
  • 16-17z ISC grid comparisons and final tweaking
  • Subject to change, based on availability of
    guidance and customer demands

9
Weather Element Productionand the Impact on
Collaboration
  • Edit grids to optimize meteorological reasoning
    and internal consistency
  • PoP ? Wx ? Sky ???
  • Common smart tools facilitate collaboration
  • Using diurnal curve tools for T from MaxT/MinT,
    weather from pop, etc.
  • Use lapse rate tools to account for terrain

10
Philosophy
  • The emphasis an office places on a well
    collaborated forecast makes a difference
  • Management team leads the way
  • Attitude towards collaboration can differ from
    forecaster to forecaster in an office
  • More work for other forecasters - if one
    forecaster does not collaborate then others have
    to fix forecast to be well collaborated
  • The forecast style (aggressive or conservative)
    of each forecaster will impact collaboration

11
Tools
  • 12Planet
  • Intersite Coordination of Grids (ISC)
  • Telephone

12
12Planet
  • Each office has standardized IDs
  • WFOs are XXX_short, XXX_long, XXX_3, XXX_4
  • HPCs are hpc_MDLDIAG, hpc_MEDR, hpc_QPF1,
    hpc_QPF2
  • RFCs are XXX_1, XXX_2, XXX_3
  • SPCs are SPC_Outlook1, SPC_Outlook2,
    SPC_Outlook3, SPC_Watch, SPC_Meso, SPC_Fire
  • Can block all but your surrounding offices and
    NCEP
  • Can talk to all on your subscribe list at once as
    well as just a select few (whisper/private chat)

13
12Planet
  • You can set up a word list on which to receive
    audio alarms
  • By choosing _ as a word, you will receive an
    audio alarm on each message posted by someone in
    your subscribe list
  • You can set up a temporary chat room to talk to
    a few offices or for a regional meeting

Help can be accessed by clicking then Help in
12Planet or
www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/IFPS/12p/12Pl
anet.htm
14
12Planet is just the beginning
  • Provides initial method for widespread
    collaboration of meteorological thought
  • Collaboration strategies and chat tools are sure
    to evolve
  • May eventually find a method to enhance or
    replace chat capability

15
Chat Advantages
  • Efficient and less intrusive to forecast process
  • Focuses discussion on one topic at a time
  • Encourages conciseness
  • Allows everyone to use same mode of communication
  • Facilitates exchange of all viewpoints
  • Less potential for personalities to dominate
  • Allows earlier collaboration of potential
    headlines

16
Chat Advantages cont
  • Allows for continuous sharing of information
  • Quicker notification of changes in meteorological
    thinking
  • Can also relay technical issues or severe weather
    reports
  • Opportunity for science sharing
  • Increased interaction with surrounding offices
    and NCEP
  • Other uses of posts
  • Basis of AFD
  • Shift briefing
  • Subsequent forecasters can review evolution of
    forecast

17
ISC Grid Collaboration
18
Ways to Send ISC
Send your grids Early and Often!
Dont wait until all grids have been edited Also
do not send grids you intend to edit again
  • You can choose to
  • send ISC grids via the
  • Save Dialog This should
  • be the default

OR
Send ISC Grid option from Right Mouse Button over
a particular grid
19
Send ISC Dialog
  • Select Weather Elements you wish to send
  • Select the Time Period
  • Choose sites you wish to send to
  • So if you edited MaxT for Day 3 on the eastern
    boundary, you can just send that grid to the WFO
    that borders on the east

Can choose groups such as Public, Fire, etc.
20
Intersite Coordination Mode
  • How to find where forecast differences exceed the
    collaboration thresholds

You can set up a sample point set which will
allow forecasters to get a quick look at whether
ISC thresholds are being met
21
ISC Discrepancy Tools
  • There are three GFE tools to help identify
    discrepancies
  • Show_ISC_Highlights -- highlights grids that are
    discrepant. This is the tool called by the
    ISC_Discrepancies Procedure
  • Show_ISC_Grid -- creates a discrepancy grid to be
    viewed from the Grid Manager
  • Show_ISC_Area -- creates an edit area identifying
    where discrepancies were found

Complex Terrain Discrepancy Grid
22
Generating Discrepancy Grids
Via the Consistency Menu
Choose the elements and times to check
Grids with points exceeding the thresholds are
highlighted
23
Generating Discrepancy Grids
Show_ISC_Area
Creates edit areas where thresholds are exceeded
24
Generating Discrepancy Grids
Show_ISC_Grid
Creates grid showing differences between your
forecast at that point and your neighbors Those
exceeding the threshold are highlighted
25
Collaboration Dos
  • Collaborate potentially major issues before your
    mind is made up
  • Collaborate significant changes to going forecast
    and any potential headlines
  • Work to get everyone on board this is one time
    when peer pressure is a good thing!
  • Focus on the meteorology when chatting
  • Indicate why are you leaning in a particular
    forecast direction
  • Especially important in extreme events
  • Concentrate on meteorology, not zones or words
  • Minimize use of edit areas that conform to
    geopolitical boundaries

26
Collaboration Donts
  • No need to chat about minor tweaks if you are
    going to be within tolerances/thresholds
  • Open ended questions are often not as effective,
    need to be specific
  • SEW - concerned abt shrtwv on tues. May need
    pops. Whats your thoughts?
  • OUN/TUL - Eta a lot drier than GFS w/H85 mstr
    tngt? Which way are you leaning?
  • Dont neglect the chat that frustrates
    surrounding offices
  • Dont go with a particular forecast solution
    without backing it up (e.g. blindly going with
    model guidance)

27
What if You Do Not Agree?How to Work Around a
Potential Conflict
  • If after stating your science and experience you
    still cannot come to a consensus, then try these
    workarounds
  • Agree to wait for more data which helps to
    clarify the meteorological situation
  • For the time being, agree to keep any changes
    closest to what is currently forecast until new
    data can support a particular solution
  • Have an impartial third office or HPC break the
    tie
  • If this is a recurring issue (e.g. temps on a
    particular boundary), conduct a local study or
    have a multi-office meeting on the matter

28
Collaboration Experiences during NDFD Prototype
29
Collaboration Successes During the NDFD Prototype
  • Summer 2002 during significant cold frontal
    passage, HPC provided specific ECMWF sfc data
  • HPC occasionally provided web addresses to
    datasets they were using along with additional
    explanation
  • Collaboration makes offices focus on edges of CWA
    which can improve service to those areas
  • Several occasions when ICT CWA corner forecasts
    were improved via ISC grids
  • RLX forecasters benefited from RNK forecasters
    expertise in a border valley which improved
    service to that area

30
Problems Encountered During the NDFD Prototype
  • Numerous cases where offices
  • Waited until the last minute to send any ISC
    grids
  • Werent in chat room or never responded to
    specific inquiries
  • Forecasters who insist on forecasting a seemingly
    small chance event, refuse to give some to
    consensus yet they failed to justify their
    solution well enough to persuade others
  • Seen particularly in the medium range
  • Forecasters who wont stray from guidance

31
More Problems Encountered During the NDFD
Prototype
  • Cases where HPC
  • Medium range models were stratified into two
    clusters yet when asked which one they favored,
    HPC responded, Both solutions are equally
    likely
  • Would be better to know their gut feeling as to
    which would verify
  • Ignored several WFOs who differed on
    location/timing of nocturnal convection in Plains

32
Collaboration from January 2002
  • ictisc - main concern though for sgfnt accums
    would be acrs central ks on fri
  • ictisc - in this regard...the eta looks best with
    lo lvl mstr return/critical mean thkns
  • sgfisc2 - Are you thinking about a watch?
  • ictisc - at this time my main concern for a posbl
    watch would be acrs central ks (bordering DDC/TOP
    CWA), not SGF.
  • ictisc - just initial impressions though, am open
    to coord/changes
  • sgfisc2 - Is EAX considering a watch?
  • ictisc - that seems rsnbl further north, and
    would fit with any watch we might have to the
    north
  • ictisc - does topeka have any thoughts as of yet?
    or too early?
  • tulisc - Well, for our CWFA our only main concern
    is across far nrn tier. Looks like most of the
    qpf will shift east before soundings support too
    much SN.
  • topisc - from what I have looked at...some large
    snow amounts could be possible and I am not
    against issuing a watch. Will have to check with
    Hastings.
  • oaxisc - oax is running backup for Hastings today
  • eaxisc2 - I apologize for entering this
    discussion late. It looks like light snow could
    begin in our CWA early Friday morning. That would
    be late in the fourth period.
  • eaxisc2 - Snow looks likely, but I am unsure
    about issuing a watch this early. I plan on
    using strong wording in our Hazardous Weather
    Outlook, but am hesitant for a watch now.
  • oaxisc - oax agrees with eax concerning
    watch...also plan on holding off
  • ictisc - it is late 3rd/mainly 4th pd event for
    ICT. Can go either way, but current thinking is
    a Watch is probly warranted if surrounding WFO's
    lean that way. KED
  • ictisc - again for cntrl Ks (north of ICT) right
    now
  • topisc - I was leaning towards a watch but can
    also go either way.
  • sgfisc2 - For now...will plan to hold off on the
    watch also.
  • ictisc - after coord with Topeka. current
    thinking is to go with a 4th pd (FRI) Watch for
    Central KS counties

33
Evolution of CollaborationChat room excerpts one
year later
  • WFO SGF - with regard to the upcoming system wed
    nt into thursday...given the eta trend to sink
    500 mb height field....layer rh field...and vort
    track about 150 miles south over the last 2
    runs...think that a winter storm watch may be
    needed over the northern 2/3 of my cwa. initial
    proposed boundaries are in wwa
  • tsa_longTerm - Looking with each successive model
    run that impact will be greater over ne oklahoma
    and nw arkansas wed night as well...but
    preliminary thoughts would be low end advisory
    amounts along ks border. Will have to wait and
    see.
  • WFO SGF - if in fact we do get several inches of
    snowpack...fridays high temps may need to be
    trimmed back substantially as waa not really
    kicking in yet
  • eax-1 - all prelim grids have been sent. lowered
    max temps quite a bit friday for areas which
    should receive significant snow accumulations.
  • ICT (Routine) - 18z mesoeta is even stronger with
    isentropic lift...this fits the pattern of all
    models continuing to deepen the system every run.
    will extend the watch a bit more to the west
  • Topeka Long Term - Is anyone concerned with the
    clipper system progged to come across Iowa on
    Saturday? Models are fairly consistent with the
    short wave, but again moisture is the wild card.
  • ICT (Routine) - despite impressive forcing/lift,
    the antecedent dry air should preclude sgfnt qpf
    til 00z in sern ks.
  • Topeka Long Term - Was thinking that an advisory
    would be warrented in east central zones. Am not
    excited about warning criteria being met. The
    best lift is used to saturate the airmass and
    then scoots east pretty quickly with the best
    accumulation occurring between 00z and 08z.
  • ICT (Routine) - the limiting/troubling factor is
    wedge of drier air in the low lvls that seems to
    get wrapped up into sys acrs parts of the cwa.
  • eax-4 - quick look at 12Z initialization of ETA
    makes me think the ETA may be a little too far
    south with position of 500mb low, based on WV
    imagery and profiler data.

34
The New Forecast MethodologyCollaboration
Smoothes the Way
  • Only make changes where needed
  • Examine new information as though current
    forecast is good, until majority of data suggests
    otherwise
  • Enables forecasters to come to a synoptic scale
    understanding before making major changes to
    existing grids
  • Helps to avoid potential problems and wasted time
  • Allows forecasters to share scientific techniques
  • Use ISC to identify any boundary issues
  • Convergence toward a solution is better than
    yo-yo effect

35
What is More Credible?
36
Typical Forecast Shift
  • Shift briefing should mention potential problems
  • Meteorology and grids
  • If substantial changes could be needed, reach
    consensus on synoptic scale evolution first
  • Edit grids and share via ISC
  • Collaborate to resolve finer scale details

37
Ponder thisAs Yet Unanswered Questions
  • How do you do a rolling database over multiple
    offices?
  • Do you forecast/chase thunderstorm clusters and
    outflow boundaries and their effect on
    pops/temps/winds/sky etc.?
  • At what point do you update?
  • What is consensus according to our customers
    and partners?

38
Things to Keep in Mind
  • Extreme events continue to be the most important
  • Lets work together to nail them
  • Is latest model run always the best choice if
    large changes are indicated
  • Maybe trends are better
  • Consensus forecast has superior accuracy?
  • Consensus is not necessarily the most accurate
    forecast in a given situation, but over the long
    haul, consensus usually wins C. Doswell
  • But it is still important to have consensus as it
    affects NWS credibility
  • So to gain credibility as an agency, we must
  • have meteorological consistency in grids

39
Which Forecasts Are Most Credible?Imagine
Yourself as a Customer
40
Final ThoughtsKeys for Successful Collaboration
  • Discussion needs to begin early in the forecast
    process as new information (i.e. model data)
    arrives
  • Interaction needs to continue throughout the
    forecast process
  • Focus on the meteorology
  • In both chat and grids
  • Consensus is critical
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