Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Africa Region - Integration and Communication of V

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Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentHands-on
Training Workshopfor the Africa Region-
Integration and Communication of VA Analysis
-Maputo, Mozambique18-22 April 2005

• Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group
• Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.

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Outline

• Integration of Results
• General Points
• Cross sector and multi-sector integration
• Setting priorities
• Vulnerability
• Adaptation
• Communications
• Conclusions

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Why is Integration Important?

• Necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and
  adaptations
• Impacts do not happen in isolation
• Impacts in one sector can affect another
• Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
• Others just indirectly
• Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the
  affect of climate change in another sector

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Integration of Impacts

• Two Main Types
• Cross-Sector Integration
• Link related Sectors
• Multi-Sector
• Economy or System wide
• Integrated Assessment Models
• Economic Models

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Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct
Climate Effect

• In a recent study, crop yields in California were
  generally estimated to increase with climate
  change
• In one scenario, a 25 reduction in water supply
  results in a net loss of 1 billion/year to
  California agriculture

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Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CERES Crop water demand
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
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Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
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Multi-Sector Integration
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IMAGE Model
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Regional/National Economic Models

• Quantitative way to examine climate change market
  impacts throughout an economy
• Problem with non-market impacts
• Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium
  models
• Require a lot of data
• Can be expensive
• Can be complex
• Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

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An Example of a Regional Model
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A More Simple Approach

• Add up results sector by sector
• Limited by what is known within sectors
• Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
  points
• Need to account for a lot of sectors
• Does not capture sectoral interactions

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Estimates of Damages for India by Mendelsohn
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -0.1
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Can Also Measure of People Affected

• Millions at Risk study did this
• Global burden of disease

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At a Minimum

• Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
  and possible direction of impacts
• If only can examine crops, not water supply, then
  identify how change in water supply could affect
  agricultural production

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Setting Priorities

• Vulnerability
• Adaptation

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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities

• It can be quite useful for
• Focusing adaptation measures
• Monitoring
• Adaptation

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Process is as Important as Outcome

• This is an expression of values, not a purely
  analytic exercise
• Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
• The following are tools that can be useful in
  setting priorities
• Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
  approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

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NAPA Process
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Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
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OECD Method
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Ranking Adaptations

• Screening
• Multi-criteria assessment
• Benefit-cost analysis

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Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
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Multi-Criteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
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Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in
Kazakhstan
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Ranking Based on Scenario
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Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
  metric to determine whether benefits gt costs
• Monetary values often used
• Difficulty what to do about non-market benefits
  or uncertainties
• Difficulty requires a lot of data and analysis

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BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
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What to Use
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Presenting Resultsin Your National Communication
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UNFCCC Decision 17/CP.8

• . . . non-Annex I Parties should provide
  information on their vulnerability to the adverse
  effects of climate change, and on adaptation
  measures being taken to meet their specific needs
  and concerns arising from these adverse effects.

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Communication

• The National Communication (NC) needs to clearly
  communicate vulnerability and adaptation findings
• Fine to describe methods and results of analyses
• But, needs to synthesize and integrate results
• The NC needs to clearly communicate
• Who and what is vulnerable
• How that may vary across time and geographic
  region
• What is needed to be done to adapt
• Where and when

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First Thing Remember Purpose

• Who is the audience for the NC?
• What kind of information do they need?
• How can it most effectively be presented to them?

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Presenting Vulnerabilities

• Well cover two things
• Clearly presenting results
• Presenting who and what is most vulnerable

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Clearly Presenting Vulnerability Findings

• The key is
• Organization
• Clarity
• Simplicity

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Seychelles First NC
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Tanzanias First NC
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From Users Manual
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Relative Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of
Impacts
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Presenting Adaptation Results

• Present identified adaptations in a clear manner
• Evaluate or rank adaptations
• Consider possible effectiveness within your
  country

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Seychelles Adaptations
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South Africa Evaluation
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Conclusions

• Integration is important to at least identify
  related impacts
• Analysis is desirable because there can be
  surprises
• Integration can also be useful for examining
  total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities
• Clear synthesis and reporting of results is
  important
• Analytic methods exist for analyzing and ranking
  adaptations

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Some Final Thoughts
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To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail

• Methods or models are a means to get an answer
• Before addressing the answer, we must consider
  the question(s) being asked

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These Questions are Key Factors in Determining
How to Conduct Your Study

• You should not begin with the methods or models
  you have in hand, but with these questions
• Select methods and models that best help you
  answer the questions