A Systems Engineering Approach for Global Fleet Station Alternatives in the Gulf of Guinea Systems E


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A Systems Engineering Approach for Global Fleet
Station Alternatives in the Gulf of
GuineaSystems Engineering Analysis (SEA-12)

• Brief to N8F
• 10 Dec 07

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Systems Engineering AnalysisCurriculum

• Navy URL focused curriculum From Maxwell to
  Mahan
• Three education skills threads with JMPE
• Systems Engineering
• Technology
• Analysis
• Integrates cross campus Navy study in lieu of
  thesis

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SEA-12 Who We Are
Project Manager (Report) LCDR John Montonye
Project Manager (Process and Integration) LCDR
Nagel Sullivan
Peacetime Engagement Capt Brian Hans LT Frank
Axiak LCDR Nagel Sullivan LT Matt McKenna
Team Leads
HA/DR LT Shipor Tsui LT John Rummel LT Kate
Ottersberg LT Jennifer Delaney
Writers
Interagency/NGO Coordination LT Brian Crosby LT
Justin Jomoto LCDR John Montonye LT Christian
Hansen
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Interactions
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Bottom Line Up Front
Top Solution Alternatives
or
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Research Process Model Modified JCIDS
Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
Strategic Guidance
Functional Solutions Analysis (FSA)
Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
CISD Concept Design
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Our JCIDS processProject Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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Defining GFS Different Perspectives
A hub where all manner of joint
interagency international organizations navies
coast guards and non-governmental organizations
could partner together as a force for good.
- ADM Mike Mullen (CNO) GFS is
a persistent sea base of operations from which to
coordinate and employ adaptive force packages
within a regional area of interest.
- SOUTHCOM Website The Global
Fleet Stations (GFS) pilot program will serve as
a regional cornerstone for phase 0 Shaping and
Stability Operations. GFS supplies an adaptive
force package that supports the 1000-ship Navy
with a persistent presence. -
Dept of Navy Office of Information (CHINFO)
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Scoping the Project by Region Gulf of Guinea

• - Vast expanse of ocean
• Navies and Coast Guards span a wide range of
  capabilities and needs
• Varied political/cultural/socio-economic
  environments and situations per country offering
  a broad spectrum of government non-government
  and military assistance opportunities.
• Past and future pilot/HADR programs
• Opportunities for cross-campus integration

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Output of Strategic Guidance Definition and
Problem Statement
Definition
Problem Statement
Evaluate Global Fleet Station system alternatives
to provide the most effective solution to execute
Maritime Security and Influence Operations in the
Gulf of Guinea projected to 2012.
A sea base of operations from which to coordinate
and launch a variety of missions within a
regional area of interest focusing primarily on
Phase 0/Shaping and Stability operations to
include Theater Security Cooperation Maritime
Domain Awareness and tasks associated with the
war on terror.
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Project Evolution

• Background
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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FAA Breaking Into Teams to Develop Attributes

• Determine Capabilities and Requirements for
  GFS Based on Strategic Guidance via Mission Areas
• Peacetime Engagement
• Military to Military
• Humanitarian Assistance / Disaster Relief
• Crisis Response Short Term Solutions to Regional
  Issues
• Interagency NGO Coordination
• Long Term Influence/Solutions to Regional Issues

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FAA GFS is a Complex System
Shaping and Stability Operations
GFS
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FAA Attribute Definition and Example
Example
Definition
1.0 Peacetime Engagement (all sub-missions)
Mission

• Attribute
• A Quantitative or Qualitative Characteristic of
  an Element or its Actions (CJCSM 3170.01C)
• Specific Capabilities
• What GFS Does

1.0.1 Command Control Coordination (C3) - The
ability to exercise authority and direction by a
properly designated commander
Capability/Function/ Mission
1.0.1.2 C3 Integration. GFS shall have computing
capabilities that integrate sensors
communications and self-protection weapon
systems into a single command and control system.
Attribute
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a Possible Global Process with Regional
Application
Global Model Application
Regional Application
Peacetime Engagement
Inter-Agency / NGO Coord
Environment
MISSION
EMIO
C.P.
MSOC
FNCB
Canal Security
Support Embarked Orgs
COUNTRY NEEDS
FUNCTION
C3
OOT
MDA
VBSS
Training
CAPS
ATTRIBUTES (What GFS DOES in Specifics)
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Project Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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FNA Scenarios by Mission
ATTRIBUTES
ATTRIBUTES
ATTRIBUTES
Resource Management
Peacetime Engagement
HA/DR
Interagency/NGO Coordination
Fisheries Enforcement
ScenarioHealthcare
ScenarioCounter Piracy EMIO
ScenarioFlood
Infrastructure
SLOC Protection
Weight Attributes
Weight Attributes
Weight Attributes
Tsunami
Platform Alternatives
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FNA Analysis of Current Alternatives
Six Platform Alternatives
CG
AS
HSV
LPD-17
FFG/LHD
RO-RO/HSV
Performance Cost and Risk
Best System Alternatives
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Project Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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Scenario Weights

• Weight How Important an Attribute is
• The Same for All Ships
• Develops an Attribute Hierarchy and Global Weight
  (GW)
• GW Individual Weight/Sum of all Weights
• Means of Quantifying Attributes via Weights

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Value Scores

• Value Score How Well a Current Capability
  Platform Fulfills an Attribute.
• Some Scores are Quantitative
• Some Scores are Qualitative
• All are Objective
• Used Utility Theory
• Measured in Percentages

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Peacetime Engagement Scenario

• Context GFS conducting training with the
  Nigerian Navy for maintenance security of
  petroleum infrastructure boarding operations
  fisheries protection border dispute resolution.
• Threat Movement for the Emancipation of the
  Niger Delta (MEND) militia boards a Nigerian
  Shell Oil platform near Bonny Island (littoral)
  steals 100s of barrels of petroleum with a small
  coastal tanker (200-300 ft) and a swarm of 5 fast
  boats with small arms/RPGs 3 Shell hostages
  taken.
• In cooperation with the Nigerian Government GFS
  is tasked by AFRICOM to lead the ensuing
  operation in support of the Nigerian Navys
  constitutional role.
• Why
• International training and exercises are
  fundamental parts of GMP and GFS mission
• Similar attacks are a recurring threat
• Bonny River and littoral waters are
  representative of critical traffic ways
• Negligible offshore capability is endemic to the
  region

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Peacetime EngagementKey Attributes Results
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Peacetime EngagementNSS Simulation

• Regional Situational Maritime Awareness Attribute
  Derived from Naval Simulation System (NSS)
• Inputs Small Fast Craft HSV RORO AS LPD-17
  Oil Platform RPG 50 cal Snake Eyes MK-96 Pk
  Tables Phit/Pkill Tables Tracks Helicopter
  Flight Plans MOEs Tactics Tables
• Measures
• Time to Detection (Ship/Helo)
• Range to detection (Ship/Helo)

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Peacetime EngagementNSS

• Simulation run 70 times
• Ensured
• RMSA Calculation
• Score(2/3) Ship Score (1/3) Helo Score

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HA/DR Scenario

• Description
• Northern Ghana and Ashanti have experienced
  unusually vast amounts of rainfall resulting in
  severe flooding throughout the region. The
  ramifications of this flooding have left 250000
  Ashanti people affected 250 killed and 45000
  homeless.
• GFS is operating IVO the Gulf of Guinea and has
  been tasked to support HA/DR operations.
• Why
• Historical trends
• Flex all key attributes

2002-2007
Ghana
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HA/DR Key Attributes Results
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Interagency/NGO Coordination Scenario

• Description
• Healthcare Scenario Selected with Particular
  Focus on HIV/AIDS Epidemic
• Why
• - Information Readily Available (AIDS Rates)
• Pertinence to Shaping and Stability in Region
• Project Hope Representative Cooperative
• Flex the Ability of GFS to Support a NGO

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Interagency/NGO Coordination Scenario

• Context. GFS is commencing her maiden deployment
  to the GoG Area of Operations (AO). One of the
  primary mission areas of GFS Interagency/NGO
  integration is being conducted by a NGO Project
  Hope. GFS is supporting Project Hope in combating
  the HIV/AIDS epidemic through prevention care
  treatment and support in three countries
  Liberia Cameroon Angola. GFS unique
  capabilities enable her to deliver house store
  and support Project Hope in their mission.
• Assumptions
• GFS will not provide security to personnel
  associated to the NGO while ashore.
• The duration of logistical support to the NGO is
  6-months.
• There is no direct threat to the security of NGO
  personnel and equipment during the initial
  deployment of Project Hope personnel in country.

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Interagency/NGO Coordination Key Attributes
Results
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Project Evolution

• Background
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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Summary of Platform Performance
Mission weighted PE- .5 HA/DR- .2 NGO- .3
(example (.5.97)(.2.59)(.3.36)) .71 Cost
used VAMOSC and MSC OS costs for a 6 month
on-station time
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Project Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Methods of Analysis
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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Cost Benefit Curve Missions Weighted
Knee in the curve
Not Cost Effective
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Project Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Methods of Analysis
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis

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Risk Analysis
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Highest Risks Assume Control or Transfer
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Project Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Methods of Analysis
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Risk Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis
• Conclusion

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FSA Notional NAVSEA Station Ship
Applied all three mission area attributes to
NAVSEA 05D1 concept platform designed
specifically for GFS.

• Using same weights NAVSEA ship scored an 85
  (tied with HSV/RORO combination for third
  highest)
• Outperformed one of the cost-effective platforms
  (the HSV)
• Pros Small size cargo carrying capacity
  aviation and small boat capability
• Cons Speed and communication/C2 equipment

CISD Concept Design
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DOTMLPF Focusing on Doctrine Materiel Personnel

• If Changes Were Made New Expected Value
  Performance (EVP)
• No Costs Considered
• Key Attributes
• Communication/C2 Equipment Key Attribute for All
  Three Missions Areas
• Aviation Capability Helo Adds a Multitude of
  Services from EMIO to Transporting
  Personnel/Supplies
• For HA/DR and NGO Cargo Carrying Capacity and
  Ability to Off-Load/On-Load Equipment/Supplies in
  Austere Environment

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Project Evolution

• Strategic Guidance
• Functional Area Analysis (FAA)
• Functional Needs Analysis (FNA)
• Scenarios and Key Attributes
• Methods of Analysis
• Results/Decision Theory Analysis
• Cost Benefit Analysis
• Functional Solutions Analysis
• Conclusion

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Conclusions of Our Study

• The Best Option to Perform GFS Mission is the HSV
  or LPD-17
• Process is a Result
• Sound Objective Process Methods
• Global Process Model has Regional Applications
• DMP Applications
• Revealed Complexities of Shaping and Stability
  Allowing for Better Decisions

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Questions
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Backups
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Bottom Line Up Front

• The Process
• Project Framework set with JCIDS Architecture
• An Element of Value Engineering
• Our First Result Global Process Model with
  Regional Applications for the Gulf of Guinea
• Mission Oriented Teams Scenario Based
  Evaluations
• Transitioning from Qualitative to Quantitative
  via Attributes
• Achieving Results Decision Theory Cost
  Analysis Risk Analysis

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Bottom Line Up Front

• The Results
• LPD-17 or HSV Most Cost-Effective Current Assets
• Notional NAVSEA Station Ship a Possibility
• Application of DMP (Doctrine Military
  Personnel) Improved Performance Minimal Change
  in Relative Rank

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Bottom Line Up Front

• Assumptions and Considerations
• GFS Alternatives Performing One Mission at a Time
• Single Data Point
• No Established CONOPS
• Time Constraints to Graduate

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Background of GFS A lot of ideas
Different views common threads an at sea
training platform that provides persistent
regional presence with a minimal footprint
ashore. CDR Mike Fulkerson U.S. Naval Forces
Europe The Navy envisages establishing as many
as five GFSs around the world each of which
might be built around a single amphibious ship or
high-speed sealift ship. CRS shallow draft
Navy ships and support vessels to operate around
rivers and littoral waters in key regions of the
world. Christopher J. Castelli
InsideDefense.com
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Initial Concept A Regionally Tailored Sea-Base
The GFS concept is based on the establishment
of a network of sea-based Fleet Stations
worldwide each one servicing specific regions
where the economic and national interests of a
globalizing world of nation-states converge.
Locations for the initial sea-based Global
Fleet Stations based on fleet demand and input
includes SE Asia Oceania East and West Africa
the Arabian Gulf and South and Central
America. Captain Wayne Porter USN
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Existing Efforts

• GFS Pilot Programs
• HSV-2 SWIFT (Apr-Sept 07)
• USS FORT MCHENRY (Oct 07 May 08)
• Associated Humanitarian Assistance
• USS EMORY S. LAND (Jan-Mar 05/ Feb-Apr 06)
• USNS COMFORT (Jun-Oct 07)
• USS PELILIEU (Jun-Sept 07)

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JCIDS Modified Our Process Up-Front
JCIDS
Tasks

Research National service and other
documents. Initial stakeholder solicitation.
Strategic Guidance
Problem Statement
Definition
Decide and Derive Primary Missions and Scope.
Functional Area Analysis
Focused research and stakeholder
solicitation. Derive requirements capabilities
or objectives.
Req/Cap
Identify requirements and capabilities by
mission.
Functional Needs Analysis
Compare current alternative with mission reqs and
caps. Determine what needs are left unfilled.
Candidate Alternatives
Merge and prioritize requirements and
capabilities. Revise list of alternatives.
Functional Solutions Analysis
Risk Analysis. Simulation and Scenarios. Optimizat
ion.
Capstone Project Report
Present research findings and GFS system
alternatives.
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FAA Original Approach
Peacetime Engagement
Infrastructure Coordination
Environment
HA/DR
Country Needs
C a p a b I l I t I e s
Metrics
MOEs
MOPs
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An ExampleMilitary Appearance
LPD
LW 1
Sh 0
HC 0
Appearance Grade .33
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty
With no idea of the future state of GoG- one can
use the Hurwicz Rule to help with combined scoring
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Peacetime Engagement
Defined Peacetime Engagements are those
operations that create an environment that
encourages peace discourages violence and
instability and builds confidence. At the same
time we also use resources to help diminish
threats counteract factors that lead to
instability and lessen the potential severity of
conflicts that may arise. Ref Secretary of
Defense William S. Cohen
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Disaster Relief
Defined An act of nature (such as a flood
drought hurricane earthquake volcanic
eruption or epidemic) or an act of man (such as
a riot violence civil strife explosion fire
or epidemic) which is or threatens to be of
sufficient severity and magnitude to warrant
United States foreign disaster relief to a
foreign country foreign persons or to an
international organization. Ref NWDC TACMEMO
3-07.6-05 HA/DR Operations Planning
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Humanitarian Assistance
Defined Programs conducted to relieve or reduce
the results of natural or manmade disasters or
other endemic conditions such as human pain
disease hunger or privation that might present a
serious threat to life or that can result in
great damage to or loss of property. The foreign
assistance provided is designed to supplement or
complement the efforts of host nation civil
authorities or agencies that may have primary
responsibility for providing humanitarian
assistance. Humanitarian Assistance operations
are those conducted outside the US its
territories and possessions. Ref NWDC TACMEMO
3-07.6-05 HA/DR Operations Planning
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Interagency/NGO Coordination
Defined Within the context of Department of
Defense involvement the coordination that occurs
between elements of Department of Defense and
engaged US Government agencies for the purpose of
achieving an objective. (This term and its
definition modify the existing term and its
definition and are approved for inclusion in the
next edition of JP 1-02.) Ref JP
3-0 Supporting non-military interagency NGO and
IGO entities that will serve as extensions of
GFS capability in influence operations. Ref
SEA 12
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Primary Stakeholders

• Navy
• CNO (ADM Mullen)
• NAVEUR (ADM Ulrich)
• N8F (RADM Clingan)
• AFRICOM
• NAVSEA
• USMC
• MARFOREUR
• USCG
• LANT Area External Affairs
• Office of Security and Defense Operations
• State Department
• Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
  (S/CRS)
• GoG Countries

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Background of GFS A lot of ideas
Different views common threads an at sea
training platform that provides persistent
regional presence with a minimal footprint
ashore. CDR Mike Fulkerson U.S. Naval Forces
Europe The Navy envisages establishing as many
as five GFSs around the world each of which
might be built around a single amphibious ship or
high-speed sealift ship. CRS shallow draft
Navy ships and support vessels to operate around
rivers and littoral waters in key regions of the
world. Christopher J. Castelli
InsideDefense.com
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JCIDS Analysis
Strategic Policy Guidance
Joint Operations Concepts
Joint Operating Concepts Joint Functional
Concepts Integrated Architectures
Functional Area Analysis
CPD
Functional Needs Analysis
CDD
Post Independent Analysis
Materiel Changes CJCSI 3170 process
Alternative N
Ideas for Materiel Approaches
Analysis of Materiel Approaches
DOTMLPF Analysis
ICD
Alternative 2
Alternative 1
DOTMLPF Change Recommendation
DOTMLPF Changes CJCSI 3180 Process
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Strategic Guidance CNO
Part of the Navys overarching Seabasing CONOPS
a GFS is a persistent sea base of operations
focusing primarily on Phase 0 (shaping)
operations theater security cooperation and
global maritime awareness. GFS offers a means to
increase regional maritime security through the
cooperative efforts of joint interagency and
multinational partners as well as
non-governmental organizations without imposing a
footprint ashore. - CNO (CNOG Feb 2007)
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Strategic Guidance Other Sources

• U.S. Coast Guard Strategy for Maritime Safety
  Security and Stewardship
• Issues
• Increasing complexity of maritime domain as well
  as vulnerabilities to transnational threats
• Increasing scale of catastrophic incidents
• Limited governance of maritime domain
• Priorities
• Awareness in the Maritime Domain
• Unity of effort in maritime planning and
  operations
• National defense in support of NSMS
• Continuity of commerce and maritime activities
• Focus international engagement on improving
  maritime governance

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Strategic Guidance Other Sources

• Naval Operations Concept 2006
• Traditional Missions
• Forward Naval Presence
• Crisis Response
• Expeditionary Power Projection
• Maritime Security Operations
• Sea Control
• Deterrence
• New Missions
• Security Cooperation
• Civil-Military Operations
• Counter-Insurgency
• Counter-Terrorism
• Counter-Proliferation
• Air and Missile Defense
• Information Operations

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Interactions so far

• CNO Office
• N8FB Mr. James McCarthy
• N00K CAPT Van Hook CAPT Wayne Porter (former)
• N3/5 CAPT Rick Low
• N5 LT Dennis Wischmeier Melissa Copp
• N81 CAPT Andrew King LCDR Eric Williams LCDR
  Mo Efimba
• N421 CAPT Jim Stewart
• NAVWARDEVCOM HA/DR CONOPS
• Sea Basing Pillar- CDR Mark Becker
• NWDC Norfolk
• Medical Capabilities Development CDR Debra
  Duncan
• CNE-C6F
• Senior Naval Analyst- Mr. Jed Snyder
• Operational Net Assessment- LT Peter Ojinaga

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Interactions so far

• HSV-2 (GFS Pilot)
• Blue Crew Commanding Officer- CDR Charles Rock
• Blue Crew Operations Officer- CDR Lynn Oschmann
• State Department Liaison- Ms. Sarah Wolf
• NSWC-CD Bethesda
• NAVSEA GFS Study- Mr. Mark Campbell Mr. John
  Krempasky
• NSWC Dahlgren (NECC Riverine/GFS Study)
• Study Lead- Mr. Mike Mazzacco
• Center for Civil-Military Relations
• IDT Project Officer- Mr. Scott Moreland
• NAVEUR
• Plans- CDR Ken OBrien LCDR Mark Thompson
• Maritime Partnership/Interagency Coordination
  Mr. Dan Trott
• National Defense University
• LCDR Mitsu Binns

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Interactions so far

• CNO Strategic Studies Group
• ADM Hogg
• State Department
• Senior Naval Advisor CAPT Fernandez Ponds
• USCG HQ
• Chief Fisheries Marine Protected Species Law
  Enforcement LCDR Chris Barrows
• Training Manager Europe/Africa International
  Affairs Mr. Jeremy Cairl
• Naval Surface Warfare Group Four (NSWG-4)
• Science Advisor/Requirements Analyst Mr. Matthew
  Hawkins
• HQMARFOREUR
• Dep G3/5 Laura Falkenbach LCDR Chris Nelson
• Visibility and Management of Operating and
  Support Costs (VAMOSC)
• Program Manager Mr. Mike Carey
• IBM Deputy/Ships Ship Systems Ms. Virginie
  Collin-Banerji

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Interactions so far

• Naval Postgraduate School
• Prof. Wayne Hughes CAPT (Ret) (Chair Systems
  Engineering Analysis)
• Dr. Gene Paulo (Dept of Systems Engineering
  Advisor)
• Prof. Jeff Kline CAPT (Ret) (Operations
  Research Advisor)
• COL Andy Hernandez (Associate Dean Operations
  Research)
• CAPT Doug Otte (Chairman Warfare Innovation)
• Prof. Chuck Calvano CAPT (Ret) (Dept of Systems
  Engineering)
• Asst. Prof. Rachel Goshorn (Dept of System
  Engineering)
• Mr. Mitch Brown (Naval War College professor)
• Prof. Brian Steckler (Hastily Formed Networks)
• Dr. Letitia Lawson (National Security Affairs-
  Africa)
• Ibrahim Sani (Nigerian Foreign National)
• LCDR Sarah Dachos (National Security Affairs-
  Africa FAO Student)
• LT Christi Montgomery (METOC)
• LCDR Peter Ward (Strategic Studies Group
  student)
• LT Greta Spitz (Operations Research Thesis on
  Africa)

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Interactions so far

• Northrop Grumman
• Naval Architect (advanced Capabilities)- Mr.
  Christopher Hicks
• Engineering Supervisor- Mr. Christopher Brown
• Technical Director Mr. Bill Williston
• Inside the Pentagon
• Chris Castelli (Chief Editor)
• Military Sealift Command
• Mr. Keith Bauer (PM3 MSC HQ)
• Project Hope
• Col. Fred Gerber
• James Madison University (World Defense Review)
• Director Institute for International and Public
  Affairs- Dr. Peter Pham
• International Defense Transformation Seminar at
  NPS

70
The Road Ahead

• NAVSEA 05D1 GFS Team project
• Naval Postgraduate School
• SEA-13 Cohort project is Maritime Interdiction
  Operations in a Logistically Barren Region.
• Follow-on National Security Affairs (NSA) Global
  Maritime Partnership Thesis
• Total Ship System Engineering Project
• Aid CNE/C6F Strategy and Communication Plan
• Further Development of CARMA Mission Planning for
  executing Phase 0
• GFS CONOPS in work (due in March)