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Managing in a variable and changing climate Peter Hayman South Australian Research and Development I

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Bureau of Meteorology 'Water and the Land' Goyder's Line '1860s - line between sown and desert' - We all live on a boundary. Minnipa ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Managing in a variable and changing climate Peter Hayman South Australian Research and Development I


1
Managing in a variable and changing
climatePeter HaymanSouth Australian Research
and Development Institute
2
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3
World food shortage. Australian Agricultural
production reduced 25 by 2080. Four degrees
warming
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Indian Ocean Dipole
ENSO
Bureau of Meteorology Water and the Land
Southern Annular Mode
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10
Goyders Line
We all live on a boundary.
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Minnipa
Drought is a mismatch between agriculturalists
expectations of climate and what is happening
13
Is this drought or aridity drought or drying
variability or change cycle or shift.
14
What destroyed the sand castle? The wave or tide?
15
What destroyed the sand castle? In a variable and
changing climate it will always be hard to
distinguish between extreme events (wave) and
trends (tide)
16
Minnipa

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Challenge of a non stationary climate
19
National Rainfall change 2030 Annual
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5 decline in rainfall
10 decline
20 decline
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David Cash William Clarke JFK school of
Government, Harvard.
  • Salience is the climate information relevant to
    my decision context
  • Credibility does the information have
    credibility- would peer climate scientists agree.
  • Legitimacy whose interests were at the table
    when information was developed and communicated
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