Bhutan political crisis, Debt scenario and International Financial Institution Presented by : Mohan

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Bhutan political crisis, Debt scenario and
International Financial InstitutionPresented by
Mohan TamangDemocratic Youth of Bhutan15th
Jan 2009
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Bhutan at a glance
Area-46,000 sq km Districts20 Population
700,000 GDP-3.359 billion US Per Capita income
US1400
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Development activities-1965

• First Five year plan 1965-70 (India, 60 of the
  aid)?
• Agriculture
• Infrastructure, Roads, Hydro power, Educational
  institution
• Annual budget 23,072 (11,500 million as current
  expenditure and Nu 11,571 m as capital
  expenditure 2008-2009).
• Primary focus-service sectors, health/Education.

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Economic performance

• GDP growth double to 17 (GDP (PPP)-US 3.359
  billion estimate
• Tala hydropower generation-tripled generation
  capacity doubling
• 460 MW1,020 MW1480 MW. Commissioned in 2006.
• BoP improved in FY2007 (power and non power
  sector exports shot up 76.6 and 63.7
  respectively)?
• Tourism-21.6 visitors 24.2
• Target visitors 30,000/Nu 600. US, Europe, Japan
• Punatsangchu I-1,095 MW under construction-2014.
• Mangdechu-670 MW and Punatsangchu II- 990 MW
  2009-2016 (4,235)

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Employment

• Hydropower-creating few jobs
• Government encouraging privatization.
• Royal families taking over Schools.
• Gedu Plywood (Kuwait Fund)?

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Mining exploration/Privatization

• Massive exploration by Cos owned by Royal
  families
• Singye Construction, Lhaki groups, Tashi
  Commercials
• Pugli, khakara khola dolomite.500 Million Nu
• Kalapani-calcium carbonate.
• Immensely damaging Environment/ecology.

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Global financial crisis-1930s depression

• Ngultrum depreciated by 15-18 (one USNu
  49.30)?
• Constant decline-third country imports
  expensive-technology/raw material.
• Current Account surplus 10.1 of GDP.
• FY2009 construction phase/imports will lower
  current account surplus to 2.4 of GDP.
• Public sector debt to stay around 70 (IMF and WB
  debt sustainability analysis in 2007. Debt - Nu
  16.5 billion (excluding India)?
• Debt to development partners 10 m dollars 2008
  but when exchange rate was Nu41/dollar (excluding
  New Delhi). Debt is long term 12-30 yrs,
  concessional.
• India, JICA, Austria,DANIDA,Helvetas-10th five
  year plan. (GoI Nu.100 billion)?
• Aid wont affect-GNH

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IMF consultation report 200719th-31st July
2007,Thimphu.Art IV,AoA.

• Legitimizing Monarchy
• Report suggests that under the vibrant leadership
  of Jigme Khesar
• Tashi cho Dzong (Fort)?

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Pertinent threats in the pretext to eradicate
unemployment

• Education- market needs
• Liberalizing trade regime
• implementing financial sectors reforms
• Investing in lower non labor costs.

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Poverty Report

• RGoB Poverty analysis report 2004.
• 32 under poverty. Big gap between rich and
  poor. Nu 740/month) or US17.
• Constraints landlock, limited scope for
  diversification of production.
• So paradox is the Gross National Happiness

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Voices

• Continued movement
• Demystify GNH. Eco variables inevitable indexes
  for development.
• Set Human rights records as pre requisites for
  extending grants.
• Defense Expenditure 2002-9.3 million US
• 2007-13.7 million US.
• Ethnicisation of State Militia recruitment.

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Obstacles

• IFIs including neighboring countries-India,
  Nepal.
• International Communities
• USA, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Australia,
  Norway, Netherlands-Resettlement
• 8,500/1,08,000

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You and Imust stand to fight toEnd monarch and
cronies like IMF and WB.
JUSTICE
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The End