Lesson 3: Types of weather forecasting

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Module 6 Weather Forecasting
Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics
Modules
Lessons

Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• After completing this Lesson, you have learned
  to answer
• How reliable is this weather forecasting?
• What is the time span for forecasting different
  weather elements?
• What types of weather forecasting exists?
• What is 24 to 48 hours forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• What is 5-days forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• What is 30-days forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• What is season weather forecast for agricultural
  operations?

Course on Crop-Weather Relationships
2
Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• How reliable is this weather forecasting?
• Weather forecasts are usually
• Fairly accurate for the coming 1 to 2 days
• Accuracy of weather forecasts decreases as the
  lead-time increases to 3, 4, or 5 or more days
• A forecast for 4 days often needs to be revised
  as that day approaches, and in some cases the
  revision may be large.
• At lead-times of 5 to 7 days there is only a
  small amount of accuracy in weather forecasts.
• Over 7 days there is nearly none.

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is the time span for forecasting different
• weather elements?
• Weather element Forecast
• Heavy rainfall, Thunderstorms 24 hours in
  advance
• Wind velocity, Rainfall amount 36 hours in
  advance
• Occurrence of rainfall, Temperature
• intensity 5 days in advance
• Temperature departure, Rainfall
• departure 3 months in
• 
  advance

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What types of weather forecasting exists?
• Weather forecasts for can be grouped into
• Short range forecast up to 48 hours
• Extended forecast up to 5 days
• Long range forecast 30 days to the season
• Each type of forecasting has a role to play in
  farm
• operations and planning of agricultural
  activities.

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is 24 to 48 hours forecast for agricultural
• operations?
• Forecast emphasis is about
• High and low temperature
• Wind velocity and direction
• Sunshine duration
• Time and amount of rainfall
• Relative Humidity
• Forecast accuracy is 70 to 80

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is 24 to 48 hours forecast for agricultural
• operations?
• Agricultural applications
• Timing of field operations
• Soil workability
• Drying rate of soil
• Irrigation scheduling
• Spray applications
• Labor efficiency working hours
• Insect-disease effects
• Livestock protection from cold and heat.

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is 5-days forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• Forecast emphasis is about
• Change of weather type
• Sequence of rainy days
• Strong winds
• Extended dry or wet spells
• Forecast accuracy is 60 to 70

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is 5-days forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• Agricultural applications
• Determine depth of sowing for optimal seedling
  emergence
• Decide whether to sow or not to sow
• Plan irrigation based on the expected rainfall
• Ensure maximum efficiency of spraying
• Decide to harvest or not to harvest
• Management of labor and equipment
• Plan for animal feed requirement
• Livestock protection from cold and heat.

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is 30-days forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• Forecast emphasis is about
• Abnormalities in temperature and rainfall
• Forecast accuracy is 60

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is 30-days forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• Agricultural applications
• Soil moisture management
• Pasture management
• Determine irrigation frequency
• Short term storage after harvest
• Decide to store for short term or market
  perishable products after harvest
• Avoiding chemical sprays if insects or diseases
  are unlikely

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is season weather forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• Forecast emphasis is about
• Abnormalities in temperature and rainfall
• Forecast accuracy is 60

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Lesson 3 Types of weather forecasting

• What is season weather forecast for agricultural
  operations?
• Agricultural applications
• Crop planning marginal crops vs. normal crops
• Choose crop varieties to suit the expected
  weather
• Determine expected crop yield
• Plan area to be cultivated to get the required
  crop produce.

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Module 6 Weather Forecasting
Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics
Modules
Lessons

This concludes Lesson 3 Types of weather
forecasting - in this Module. Next Lesson is
about weather forecasting resources. Click
Lessons button to select Lesson 4
Course on Crop-Weather Relationships