Title: Emerging issues in Vocational Education and Training: Impact of Globalisation on Tertiary Education
1Emerging issues in Vocational Education and
TrainingImpact of Globalisation on Tertiary
Education
Presentation to VISTA forum Angel
Calderon Angel.Calderon_at_rmit.edu.au Melbourne,
November 2008
2About this presentation
- Context of globalisation - Phases
- Trade liberalisation
- Challenges
- Trends
- Australias relative standing
- Economic / social challenges
- Education
- Global and domestic educational challenges and
emerging issues
3Globalisation in context
Global trade flows
Global mobility of people
Internationalisation of market for goods,
production and services
Sustainability
Global mobility of capital
Global diffusion of knowledge
Education is a service industry, open to
competition in Australia
Borderless production chains
Not covered partially covered in this
presentation
4Globalisation
- The term globalisation is generally used to
describe an increasing internationalisation of
markets for goods and services, the means of
production, financial systems, competition,
corporations, technology and industries. - In turn, this gives rise to increased mobility of
capital, faster propagation of technological
innovations and an increasing interdependency and
uniformity of national markets. - Source OECD dictionary of terms.
5Phases of globalisation
- Increase in trade flows (mobility of goods and
services) - Mobility of capital
- Mobility of people and skills
- Borderless diffusion of knowledge
- Borderless production chains.
6Globalisation and Education
- Inclusion of trade in educational services in the
General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in
2000 generated an impetus for internationalising
education on a new un-chartered path - Provide market access.
- Non-discrimination once a provider is in the
market (National treatment principle). - No discrimination between the treatment of member
countries. - Source Calderon and Tangas, OECD, 2006.
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8Trade flows - Australias Trade Policy
- Howard and Rudd governments have actively pursued
bilateral and multilateral relations in light of
slow progress in GATS. - Australias two way trade in goods and services
was worth A488billion in 2007/08. - Australias trade services rose 47 to A17.9b
deterioration of deficit over the past year
reflects stronger growth in imports relative to
exports.
9Australias trade policy
10Multi- or bilateral agendas
- Australian government has supported GATS round of
negotiations, Doha (multi lateral approach). - Recognising slow progress in Doha, the Australian
government has moved swiftly to negotiate
bilaterals. - GATS is the lesser devil in trade liberalisation.
- Problem with bilateral and regional agreements is
that entrenches some level of protectionism and
partner preference.
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12Trade flows global trends
Does increase in imports and exports suggest
integration into global trade?
- In terms of imports (1953 to 2007)
- Increase
- USA (13.9 to 14.5).
- Asia (15.1 to 25.3).
- China (1.6 to 6.8).
- Japan (2.8 to 4.4)
- Increase
- Australia and NZ (2.3 to 1.4).
- South and Central America (8.3 to 3.3).
- Africa (7.0 to 2.6).
- In terms of exports (1953 to 2007)
- Increase
- Asia (13.4 to 27.9).
- China (1.2 to 8.9).
- Japan (1.5 to 5.2)
- Europe (39.4 to 42.4).
- Decrease
- USA (18.8 to 8.5).
- Australia and NZ (3.2 to 1.2).
- South and Central America (9.7 to 3.7).
- India (1.3 to 1.1 - fluctuated).
13Trade flow Intra- and inter-regional trade 2007
14People mobility Migration
- Number of immigrants worldwide 190.6 million or
3.0 of population (UN). - Over 47 of the migrants from developing
countries are believed to be residing in other
developing countries. - Migration flows in recent years, relative to
population, are weaker than during the last
decades of the nineteenth century. However it may
change given current global economic turmoil.
15People mobility Flow of migrants
Source
16People mobility Migrants East Asia Pacific
- Emigration
- Number of emigrants 19.3 million or 1.0 of
population. - Top 10 emigration countries China, Philippines,
Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Dem. Rep.
of Korea, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Cambodia. - Identified destinations high-income OECD
countries (50.0), high-income non-OECD countries
(27.3). - Immigration
- Number of immigrants 4.4 million or 0.2 of
population (compared to 190.6 million or 3.0 for
the world). - Top 10 immigration countries Malaysia, Thailand,
China, Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar,
Dem. Rep. of Korea, Papua New Guinea, Lao PDR.
17People mobility Migrants South Asia
- Emigration
- ?Number of emigrants 22.1 million or 1.5 of
population - Top 5 emigration countries India, Bangladesh,
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka. - Identified destinations high-income OECD
countries (20.3), high-income non-OECD countries
(25.3), intra-regional (34.5), other developing
countries (11.4) unidentified (8.5). - ?Emigration rate of tertiary educated (top 5
countries) Sri Lanka (27.5), Afghanistan
(13.2), Pakistan (9.2), Bangladesh (4.7),
India (4.2). - Immigration
- Number of immigrants 11.2 million or 0.8 of
population (compared to 190.6 million or 3.0 for
the world). - Top 5 immigration countries India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka.
18Mobility of capital Foreign direct investment
(FDI)
- Foreign direct investment inflows raise to 1,833
billion in 2007 an increase of 30 from
previous year. - Over the past 20 years annual growth has been in
exceed of 20 pa. - Financial and credit crisis will have a dampening
effect on FDI in coming years. - FDI inflows into developed countries grew faster
than any other region. - 68 of FDI inflows occurred in developed
countries compared to 27.3 for developing
economies (14 SEA and Oceania).
19Mobility of capital - Remittances
- The total value of workers remittances in 2007
was estimated to be US318 billion. - Remittances represented 0.7 of total global GDP
in 2006. - Inward remittance flows doubled between 2002 to
2007. - The true size of remittances, including
unrecorded flows through formal and informal
channels, is believed to be larger.
20Global production chains
- Offshoring of goods and manufacturing
- Mexicos experience under NAFTA (shift to China
- Maquilas in the northern America corridor
(presence of Korea, China and Taiwan) - Offshoring of services (ICT)
- Outsourcing
- Multi national enterprises
- Re-exporting (Japan - China - USA).
21Global diffusion of knowledge
- Education flows
- Greater mobility of students across borders
- Relevant bloc models
- Bologna Process (Europeanisation of Education)
- MERCOSUR agreement
- APEC English language
- Country partnering to support VET development
- Australia VET model in China, India and Latin
America
22Global diffusion of knowledge
- Science, Technology and Innovation
- Encompassing international cooperation
- Research and Development
- Technology traffic
- Internet, Telephony, Mobile, ICT
- Patents
- High value trade
- ICT, Technology-value add
- Service expertise.
23Production chains changes in sectoral employment
24What is that? Changing the tune here Policy
changes have greater impact than macro economics
Responding to policy imperatives, reviews and
sectoral reforms.
25Growth in Australias tertiary education system
What do the numbers tell us about the Australian
education sector without the macroeconomic noise?
Changes in VET numbers also respond to State
policies
26Emerging VET Issues - Global
- Massification of education increased
participation in tertiary education - Business
- Engineering
- Technology, ICT
- Science.
- Development national systems retaining own
nationals and attracting students from
neighbouring countries - China (attracting from Asia-Pacific)
- India (attracting from Middle East)
27Emerging VET Issues - Global
- Pursuing domestic interests, emerging educ-hub
countries setting own regulation approaches. - Australia is a mature education market and seen
as aggressive marketer and the one to beat. - Maturing emerging markets (e.g. China and India)
are building own capability whereas new emerging
markets are seeking more refined partnerships.
28Emerging VET Issues - Global
- Target emerging educational markets
- Countries where rate of exports and imports are
growing faster than GDP - Countries where exports and imports are
considered high-value i.e. technology oriented
products. - Pakistan
- Sri Lanka
- The Philippines
- Vietnam
- Turkey
29Emerging VET issues - Australia
Trade flows
Mobility of capital
Mobility of people
Diffusion of knowledge
Borderless production chains
- Skill shortage in the immediacy short and long
term - Preparedness for workforce development
- Managing system reputation
- Growth in domestic and offshore participation
- Public and private financing
- Ageing infrastructure
- Governance and accountability
- Institutional capability
30Participation
- Proportion of the Australian population in the
principal age group for education (5-24 year
olds) has decreased from 36 in 1965 to 27 in
2006 (IGR 2007). - VET domestic participation rates are projected to
increase slowly (IGR 2007). - VET annual rates fluctuate so growth is likely to
be not greater than 2 per annum. - Balancing regional participation and provision of
education.
31Participation
- Growth in international numbers will depend on a
number of issues - External forces
- Government responses to financial crisis (e.g.
rescue package USA rebalancing trade deficit
with China policy responses (e.g. protectionism
of certain industries) - Australian policy changes
- Migration levels
- Review of Innovation, Manufacturing, Education
and Training, et al.
32Financing
- Australian government spending on education is
projected to grow in real per person terms but
overall spending is projected to fall slightly as
a proportion of GDP from 1.85 in 2006-07 to
1.78 in 2046-47 (IGR 2007). - Ageing of the population detracts from growth in
real education spending. - The driver of real per person growth is the
assumed indexation of costs per student by wages
and educational participation rates.
33People mobility - Skill migration
Does Australias skilled migration intake
inhibit, limit or represent an opportunity for
Australian providers to educate, skill or
up-skill people?
50
70
Source Immigration Department
34Financing
- Viability of VET providers may be affected by
factors, e.g. - State governments funding approaches to
domestic enrolments - International demand in a tighter and more
competitive environment. - Relative reputation strength of the system
together with pathways alternatives. (Australian
ranked 3).
35Expenditure on education as a of GDP
Aspiration reflects target we should aim for to
support Australias ongoing development and
investment in human force development.
36Infrastructure
- Expenditure on upgrading institutional facilities
is likely to decline if government infrastructure
programs are not specifically targeted to support
VET. - Under current economic conditions, new facilities
may not be built a compound effect likely to be
felt in years to come. - PPP the new building pathways.
To what extent education can leverage off Nation
Building projects to support further growth in
the sector given global competition?
37Governance and accountability
- Issues of structure and management
- Responding to (greater) public scrutiny
- Increase in legislative reporting requirements
- Availability of performance data across all VET
providers (both private and TAFE)
38Institutional capability
- Enterprise agreement
- Ageing workforce
- Workforce development return to learning.
- A new wave of productivity requirements.
- Language and communication skills in a globalised
education environment (cross cultural awareness)
39Take away messages
- Education is a truly globalised service
industry rapidly growing in developing and
emerging economies. - Implications of trade liberalisation in
educational services have been underestimated and
are not reversible. As a consequence changes are
yet to be completely felt. - Most countries entering into free trade
agreements are including educational services
into the mix, resulting in new entrants
characterised in niche and labor-market driven
markets. - Examine more closely trade data to assess extent
of emerging trends likely to have an impact on
vocational education and training. - Distinguish between training for the short to the
medium and long term. - Increased emphasis on service industries away
from secondary industries (ie manufacturing) and
primary (agriculture). This in turn result in
urban growth.
40Take away messages II
- Broadening of education into the trading mix of
developing nations (China, India, Middle East and
Gulf countries, Vietnam, Philipines, Central and
South America). - Deepening of education, ie market segmentation,
specific sustainable economic needs - PhDs in science, engineering and ICT,
- Postgraduate in certain fields secondary
education.
41Post data
- An updated version of this presentation will be
made available in December. This update will
contain list of references, data sources and
tables used to generate the charts.