Title: Analysis of Solar Resource Potential and Siting Opportunities for the State of Arizona Presentation
1Analysis of Solar Resource Potential and Siting
Opportunities for the State of Arizona
Presentation to Arizona Corporation
CommissionOctober 6, 2006
- Mark S. Mehos
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory
2Summary
- Rigorous analysis of CSP potential demonstrates
that significant resources exist in Arizona for
economic development of CSP within the State - CSP resources are located near existing
transmission and near existing and growing loads - NREL and Sandia are committed to working with
Arizona utilities, project developers, and other
stakeholders to identify opportunities for more
detailed analysis of large-scale deployment in
the state.
3U.S. Southwest GIS Screening Analysis for CSP
Generation
Screening Approach
- Initial GIS screening analysis used to identify
regions most economically favorable to
construction of large-scale CSP systems. - GIS analysis used in conjunction with
transmission and market analysis to identify
favorable regions in four southwest states.
4Southwest Solar Resources - Unfiltered Data
5Southwest Solar Resources Transmission Overlay
6Southwest Solar Resources 6.75 kWh/m2/day
7Southwest Solar Resources with Environmental and
Land Use Exclusions
8Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope 3
9Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope 1
10(No Transcript)
11Additional Tools for More Detailed Siting Studies
- PC-based tool for supporting detailed siting
analysis for CSP stakeholders allows - Solar resource by resource class
- Federal and state land ownership and designations
- Utility data (transmission, generation, utility
service areas, etc) - Topography
- Any additional GIS-based data (townships,
sections, etc)
12Slope Filtered Resource and Topography
13Land Ownership, Utility Service Areas
14Summary
- Rigorous analysis of CSP potential demonstrates
that significant resources exist in Arizona for
economic development of CSP within the State - CSP resources are located near existing
transmission and near existing and growing loads - NREL and Sandia are committed to working with
Arizona utilities, project developers, and other
stakeholders to identify opportunities for more
detailed analysis of large-scale deployment in
the state.
15Current and Projected Costs of CSP Presentation
to Arizona Corporation CommissionOctober 6, 2006
- Mark S. Mehos
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory
16CSP Technologies
17CSP Reference Plant
- Parabolic Trough Technology as Proxy for CSP
- Current solar technology
- Rankine cycle plants
- 6-hours of thermal energy storage
- Finance Assumptions
- Analysis based on IPP financing
Breakdown of LEC for 100 MWe Reference System
18Current and Projected Costs of CSP
- Cost Reductions to Bridge the Gap
- Plant Size
- Deployment
- Financing
- RD
Current Technology Cost .11/kwh (real) .16/kwh
(nominal)
Goal .05-.07/kwh (real) .08-.10/kwh (nominal)
Source WGA Solar Task Force Summary Report
19Relative Cost of ElectricityPlant Size
Parabolic Trough Plant 6-hours Thermal Energy
Storage IPP Financing, 10 ITC
2006 Nexant Study Optimum Size 250MWe For
Current Technology
20Relative Cost of ElectricityIncentives (IPP
Financing)
21Effect of DeploymentBased on Experience from
Existing Plants(354MWs in California)
22Summary
- Data collected from existing parabolic trough
plants provide a verifiable baseline for
projecting the performance of current systems - Analysis performed by NREL for DOE and the WGA
projects a nominal levelized cost of electricity
of .16/kwh for a reference 100MW parabolic
trough plant with 6 hours of thermal storage
using current technology - The current cost of electricity can vary from
.12 to .16/kwh depending on the size of solar
plant, the solar resource, and mix of incentives - Additional cost reductions will be realized based
on further deployment in Arizona and other
southwest states