Analysis of Solar Resource Potential and Siting Opportunities for the State of Arizona Presentation

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Analysis of Solar Resource Potential and Siting
Opportunities for the State of Arizona
Presentation to Arizona Corporation
CommissionOctober 6, 2006

• Mark S. Mehos
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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Summary

• Rigorous analysis of CSP potential demonstrates
  that significant resources exist in Arizona for
  economic development of CSP within the State
• CSP resources are located near existing
  transmission and near existing and growing loads
• NREL and Sandia are committed to working with
  Arizona utilities, project developers, and other
  stakeholders to identify opportunities for more
  detailed analysis of large-scale deployment in
  the state.

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U.S. Southwest GIS Screening Analysis for CSP
Generation
Screening Approach

• Initial GIS screening analysis used to identify
  regions most economically favorable to
  construction of large-scale CSP systems.
• GIS analysis used in conjunction with
  transmission and market analysis to identify
  favorable regions in four southwest states.

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Southwest Solar Resources - Unfiltered Data
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Southwest Solar Resources Transmission Overlay
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Southwest Solar Resources 6.75 kWh/m2/day
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Southwest Solar Resources with Environmental and
Land Use Exclusions
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Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope 3
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Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope 1
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(No Transcript)
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Additional Tools for More Detailed Siting Studies

• PC-based tool for supporting detailed siting
  analysis for CSP stakeholders allows
• Solar resource by resource class
• Federal and state land ownership and designations
• Utility data (transmission, generation, utility
  service areas, etc)
• Topography
• Any additional GIS-based data (townships,
  sections, etc)

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Slope Filtered Resource and Topography
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Land Ownership, Utility Service Areas
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Summary

• Rigorous analysis of CSP potential demonstrates
  that significant resources exist in Arizona for
  economic development of CSP within the State
• CSP resources are located near existing
  transmission and near existing and growing loads
• NREL and Sandia are committed to working with
  Arizona utilities, project developers, and other
  stakeholders to identify opportunities for more
  detailed analysis of large-scale deployment in
  the state.

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Current and Projected Costs of CSP Presentation
to Arizona Corporation CommissionOctober 6, 2006

• Mark S. Mehos
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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CSP Technologies
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CSP Reference Plant

• Parabolic Trough Technology as Proxy for CSP
• Current solar technology
• Rankine cycle plants
• 6-hours of thermal energy storage
• Finance Assumptions
• Analysis based on IPP financing

Breakdown of LEC for 100 MWe Reference System
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Current and Projected Costs of CSP

• Cost Reductions to Bridge the Gap
• Plant Size
• Deployment
• Financing
• RD

Current Technology Cost .11/kwh (real) .16/kwh
(nominal)
Goal .05-.07/kwh (real) .08-.10/kwh (nominal)
Source WGA Solar Task Force Summary Report
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Relative Cost of ElectricityPlant Size
Parabolic Trough Plant 6-hours Thermal Energy
Storage IPP Financing, 10 ITC
2006 Nexant Study Optimum Size 250MWe For
Current Technology
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Relative Cost of ElectricityIncentives (IPP
Financing)
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Effect of DeploymentBased on Experience from
Existing Plants(354MWs in California)
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Summary

• Data collected from existing parabolic trough
  plants provide a verifiable baseline for
  projecting the performance of current systems
• Analysis performed by NREL for DOE and the WGA
  projects a nominal levelized cost of electricity
  of .16/kwh for a reference 100MW parabolic
  trough plant with 6 hours of thermal storage
  using current technology
• The current cost of electricity can vary from
  .12 to .16/kwh depending on the size of solar
  plant, the solar resource, and mix of incentives
• Additional cost reductions will be realized based
  on further deployment in Arizona and other
  southwest states