Major Mail Users of Australia Limited The Big Shift: Australian Culture

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Major Mail Users of Australia Limited The Big
Shift Australian Culture
Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG
Australia 11 August 2004

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From the bush out with RM Williams in with
Billabong Rip Curl

• Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century
• Provincial coastal culture now ascendant
• Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers
• Edna Everage Neighbours 1985 Kath Kim 2002

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Were goina surf city gonna have some fun

• Gold Coast 16,099
• Casey 10,878
• Wyndham 7,298
• Brisbane SW 7,048
• Melton 6,927
• Brisbane NW 6,426
• Pine Rivers 6,208
• Wanneroo 5,545
• Maroochy 4,931
• Sydney 4,461

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Why population shifts are important to business

• 10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg
• 3,700 new suburban households, or
• 6,700 new inner-city households
• 70 million in new retail spending
• 25 million in new supermarket spending
• ½ a Kmart
• One cinema screen
• 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete

includes GST
Population loss reverses these markets
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Bleeding bush and the blooming beach
Palmerston
Port Douglas
Katherine
Broome
Townsville
East Pilbara
Whitsunday
Yeppoon
Ngaanyatjarraku
Hervey Bay
Wiluna
Noosa
Caloundra
Leonora
Gold Coast
Roxby Downs
Geraldton
Coffs Harbour
Port Macquarie
Port Stephens
Busselton
Nowra-Bomaderry
Augusta- Margaret River
Narooma
Denmark
Victor Harbor
Areas of population loss and growth between 1976
and 2003
Macedon Ranges
Sorell
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Aussies slide towards natural decrease
implications for immigration levels
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Recession
8.5
25.4
19.4
1988
Baby Boom
1975 crisis
Fertility decline
Boomers die off
2035 Natural decrease
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Mum-dad--the-kids are on the back foot and may
be extinct by mid century
2001 1991 Growth No. No. No.
Single 1,805 1,304 38 501 Couple 2,281 1,876 2
2 405 Mum, Dad Kids 1,340 1,331 1 9 Single
Parent 307 198 55 109 Group 1,084 945 15 139 Ext
ended 548 520 5 28 7,365 6,174 19 1,191
1991-2001 Net 1,191 or 19.3 Annual
Net 119 or 1.8
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Household formation, health beauty and
lifestyle are driving consumer spending
Y/E May 2004 1994/04 2003/04 b change
change Supermarkets, grocery convenience
stores 54.3 88 6.1 Take-away food
retailing 7.9 51 10.5 Other food
retailing 12.5 87 4.5 Total department
stores 15.6 44 6.1 Clothing retailing 8.5 50 7.
0 Other clothing related retailing 3.4 54 1.6 F
urniture floor covering retailing 6.2 82 10.7
Domestic hardware houseware 8.0 143 11.5 Domes
tic appliances recorded music 11.8 64 5.1 News
papers, books stationery retailing 5.1 44 11.0
Other recreational goods retailing 2.8 57 5.6 P
harmaceutical cosmetic retailing 8.7 103 16.4
Other retailing (includes musical
instruments) 11.0 109 8.5 Total
retail 155.6 77 7.4 Hotels and licensed
clubs 17.3 71 6.4 Cafes restaurants 11.7 120
18.4 Selected services 2.9 91 4.4 Total retail
hospitality 187.4 79 7.8
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Demographics shape spending behaviour
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Chic-house city living is changing consumer
culture and preferences

• Sydney 8,258
• Brisbane 6,684
• Melbourne 5,093
• Perth 1,467
• Canberra 877
• Adelaide 478
• Darwin 424
• Hobart -216
• Total 23,065

• Out with Neighbours in with Friends, Seinfeld,
  Sex and the City, The Secret Life of Us
• Out with the stubbie in with elegant longneck
  boutique beer bottles with a designer label

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The ageing of the average Aussie bride is
prompting three distinct phases in life
Bridegrooms
Xer brides 29 in 2001
Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971
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Women want to work and will make further gains
by 2016

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No real change to male participation rates

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Baby boomers just wont die!
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Population
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051
Year
Source ABS Censuses ABS Series B Projections
September 2003
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It doesnt get any better after 43-48
Boomers at their peak until June 2006 then the
slide begins
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Trendy to be fifty in 2026
20-something 50-something 2003 2.739m 2.464m
2026 2.938m 3.089m Change 7 25
Source ABS Project Series B September 2003 ABS
3101.0 December 2003
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The Shakira conspiracy
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Why is the average Aussie bride ageing and what
are her prospects?
25-34 never married 1991 2001
Males 537,000 727,000 Females 352,000 568,000 Rat
io 1.531 1.281

• Unattached blokes grew by 35
• Unattached women grew by 61
• Conclusion Australian women are raising the
  bar

Why are there so many eligible young bachelors in
Sydney?
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Pyrmont Sydneys Menopolis
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Further information contact

• The Big Shift 2 19.95rrp
• Bernard Salts column appears in The Australian
  every second Thursday (next 19 August)
• Bernard Salts column appears monthly in Property
  Australia
• Bernard Salts column appears monthly in
  MELBOURNE Magazine
• Australia 2025 by Bernard Salt, published SMH
  Spectrum, PDF available on request
• Contact Bernard Salt [phone]
  bsalt_at_kpmg.com.au www.thebigshift.com