A LongTerm Scenario for Carbon Capture in Fossil Power Plants

1
A Long-Term Scenario for Carbon Capture in Fossil
Power Plants

• Keywan Riahi, Leonardo Barreto, Shilpa Rao
• Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis
• IEW, IIASA, June 23, 2003

2
Outlook

• The A2-CCT scenario
• Illustrative carbon capture policy
• Carbon capture clusters
• Endogenized learning
• Carbon capture mix
• Investment requirements
• Concluding remarks

3
Recent Studies on CO2 Capture and Sequestration
(CCT)

• IIASA-TEPCO 2002/03
• Hydrogen Production Systems including Carbon
  Capture (fossil biomass technologies)
• Energyplexes including Carbon Capture
• CMU-IIASA 2001/03
• Long-term Perspectives of CCT in Climate
  Mitigation Scenarios (sponsored by US DOE)
• Technology Policies fostering the penetration of
  CCT (sponsored by US DOE)

4
The A2-CCT Scenario

• Based on the IPCC-SRES A2 Scenario
• High population growth
• moderate economic growth with modest catch-up
  of developing regions
• High growth of fossil electricity
• Quantification with the MESSAGE model

5
Technology Policy in A2-CCT

• A technology policy is imposed that requires over
  time an increasing share of the fossil power
  capacity to use CCTs
• Different schedules for industrialized and
  developing countries
• In the long term this leads to a virtually (90)
  carbon-free electricity sector
• Cases are examined with and without endogenized
  learning for CCT technologies

6
Penetration of CCTs
7
Technology Clusters

• Clusters groups of related co-evolving
  technologies
• Within a cluster, technologies reinforce and
  cross-enhance each other (learning spillovers)
• Three aggregated clusters for six capture
  technologies
• CCT_Coal Coal Conventional (sub-critical,
  supercritical)
• CCT_Gas Gas Conventional, NGCC
• CCT_IGFC IGCC, Gas Fuel Cell, Coal Fuel Cell

8
Carbon Capture Clusters
9
Estimation of Learning Curves for Carbon Capture
Technologies
Learning rate 12
Source Rubin et al., 2002
10
Electricity Generation Mix
11
A2-CCT ScenarioCaptured CO2 in Electricity Sector
12
Sequestered CO2
Potentials from IEA (2001, 2002)
13
CO2 Mitigation - 2100
14
Investment Requirements for the A2-CCT Policy
15
Concluding Remarks

• A2-CCT illustrates the potential of carbon
  capture in power plants as a mitigation option
  (about 25 of total emissions)
• The decarbonization of the electricity sector is
  possible at modest costs (3 of total costs)
• Enforcing carbon capture in fossil power plants
  favors advanced technologies (IGCC, NGCC) in the
  long-term
• Results depend on the choice of clusters and
  learning parameters (from both capture and power
  technologies)