Energy, wind farm performance and how to save Berrier Hill

1
Energy, wind farm performance and how to save
Berrier Hill
2
Programme

• Introduction
• UK Energy a brief history
• An objective look at wind farm performance
• Questions
• Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to
  fight it
• Questions and Open
  Forum.

3
Programme

• Introduction
• UK Energy a brief history
• An objective look at wind farm performance
• Questions
• Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to
  fight it
• Questions and Open
  Forum.

4
Wharrels Hill, Cumbria
5
Wharrels Hill, Cumbria
6
Wharrels Hill, Cumbria
7
BLACK LAW, Forth, Scotland Opened January 2006
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Black Law wind farm Scotland
9
Crystal Rigg w/f in winter
10
Programme

• Introduction
• UK Energy a brief history
• An objective look at wind farm performance
• Questions
• Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to
  fight it
• Questions and Open
  Forum.

11
Power generation in the UK

• 1964 2007
• Central planning by CEGB No central
  planning
• Government funded Equity
  debt funded
• Public sector monopoly
  Fragmented industry
• Prices incomes policy Asset
  sweating industry
• Fuel self-sufficiency UK
  import-dependent
• Climate change not an issue Climate
  change central

12
18
AVERAGE INSTALLED CAPACITY NUMBER OF PLANTS IN
THE UK DTI data, May 2006
11
36
73
152
CHP, imported electricity other burned excluded
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15
Where will the gas come from? Russia, Ukraine,
Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela
16
GOVERNMENT TARGETS

• ELECTRICITY
• 10 FROM RENEWABLES BY 2010
• -----------------
• RISING TO 20 BY 2020

Created the Renewable Obligation Certificate
system in 2002 (ROCs) to stimulate the renewables
market This is a covert subsidy that more than
triples the price a wind farm gets for each unit
of electricity produced
17
Programme

• Introduction
• UK Energy a brief history
• An objective look at wind farm performance
• Questions
• Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to
  fight it
• Questions and Open
  Forum.

18
Frequency of wind speeds in the UK (Met Office
data)
73 below 18mph
19
TYPICAL POWER CURVE OF A WIND TURBINE
85 above 18mph
20
WIND SPEED POWER CURVE MIS-MATCH
73 below 18mph
85 above 18mph
21
LOWCA
OLDSIDE
SIDDICK
GREAT ORTON
LOAD FACTORS FOR 4 LOCAL WINDFARMS (2003-2005)
Ofgem data
22
Region 4 Cumbria
2005 Cumbria Capacity Factor 25.9 Total IC
for Cumbria 50 MW
2005 UK Capacity Factor 28.4 Total UK
installed capacity 902 MW
Best site Lowca
Worst, Lambrigg
Source Oswald Consulting, 7/2006
23
70 rise fall in 25 hours
97 CHANGE
24
Summary of power changes in a 25GW wind carpet in
the UK

• 10 of the last 12 months of January experience a
  power fall exceeding 92 of installed wind
  capacity. This means only 2GW was being generated
  from 25GW of wind capacity in nearly all months
  of January

Data from Oswald Consulting Ltd, August 2006
25
WHY WIND NEEDS BACK-UP
Trend in demand for electricity
W
W
N
W
W
N
W
N
N
C
C
C
C
C
C
G
G
G
G
G
G
2020
2015
2020
2010
2005
2000
26
WIND vs NUCLEAR At nuclear LF of 85 and wind LF
of 30 it would need 12,804 x 2.5MW turbines
to generate the same amount of power as present
nuclear fleet.
My Lords, the figures I have already given
demonstrate that we would require between 10,000
and 15,000 wind turbines to fill the gap left by
nuclear power generation Lord
Sainsbury of Turville, Lords Hansard, 18/11/2003
ref 231118-02)
27
Base load and demand
BASE LOAD MAINLY NUCLEAR
Maximum ever UK demand was for 54,431 MW on
December 10th 2002
28
Longannet, COAL 2304 MW _at_ 70 LF
Peterhead, COAL 1,550 MW _at_ 70 LF Torness,
NUCLEAR 1,250 MW _at_ 85 LF Hunterston B,
NUCLEAR 1,190 MW _at_ 80 LF
CONCLUSIONS

• TO REPLACE THESE WOULD REQUIRE 15,499 x 2 MW
  WIND TURBINES AT A 30 LOAD FACTOR
• -----------------------------
• 2. and THEY WOULD ONLY PROVIDE POWER WHEN THE
  WIND BLEW

29
GOVERNMENT TARGETS

• GHGs
• 12.5 REDUCTION OF GHGs by 2010
• ( 9.2 million tonnes of CO2)
• ------------------------------
• GOAL TO REACH 20 2010

30
Sources of Britains carbon dioxide
emissions Total 560 million tonnes CO2 /year
DEFRA data
44
118
84
Only 20 due to electricity generation
(112)
213
101
31
Annual carbon dioxide emissions
32
The global perspective

• Tony Blair said this year that if Australia
  stopped its CO2 emission ENTIRELY today the
  savings would be overtaken in 10 months by
  Chinas growing emissions
• China are opening a new coal fired power station
  every 5-8 days and intends to build 550
  coal-fired power stations by 2010

33
How much CO2 is saved?

• Wind industry use 0.86 tonnes per megawatt hour
  (MWh)
• Ian Cawley MP for Humberside wrote to Mike
  OBrien the Energy Minister on 16th Feb 2005
  suggesting a fuel mix figure of not more than
  0.43 t/MWh was correct
• On March 15th OBrien replied, ..we agree that
  it would be appropriate to use an average
  electricity generation mix when calculating the
  current CO2 savings from a wind turbine

34
VANISHING CO2 SAVINGS
Dirty coal 1995
BWEA TODAY
OFGEM,DEFRA, CARBON TRUST GOVT TODAY
SDC 2020
GOVT 2010
SDC Sustainable Development Commission
35
Advertising Standards Authority ruling dated
21/12/2005

• Complaint from Denbrook Valley Action Group,
  Devon upheld against RES Energy
• The ASA consider that although the figure of
  0.86t/MWh may have been a reasonable figure to
  use at the present time, it was not a reasonable
  figure to use for calculating the reduction of
  CO2 over a period as along as 25 years

36
SUMMARY of Part 1.1

• Demand continues to rise
• Power stations are scheduled to close
• An electricity gap is looming
• Governments answer is all gas and wind
• Electricity generated by wind is overstated
• Carbon dioxide savings are greatly overstated
• Windfarms are only build to reap the subsidies
• They are driven by Government targets
• YET OUR COUNTRYSIDE IS BEING DESTROYED AS A
  POLITICAL GESTURE

37

• Questions discussion on Part 1

38
Programme

• Introduction
• UK Energy a brief history
• An objective look at wind farm performance
• Questions
• Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to
  fight it
• Questions and Open
  Forum.

39

• The Berrier Hill proposal and the
• local context
• Wind turbines size construction
• Cumbria under seige
• Local plans
• Landscape visual impact
• House values
• Tourism the local economy
• Environmental issues
• Any benefits?

40
How big are the Berrier turbines? - HUGE!
Clipper Windpower 623 ft
Berrier Hill 345 feet Tip speed 150-180mph
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Turbine base after pouring of concrete(note
person top left)
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Turbine sections on the road to Cefn Croes, Wales
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Turbines 330 feet to blade tip
45
KIRKBY MOOR
HARLOCK HILL
FAR OLD PARK (off screen)
Winds farms tend to breed like rabbits!
46
Challenge WCEs claims

• Berrier Hill will generate a lot of clean, green
  electricity
• Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help
  climate change
• Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated
• Will create jobs
• Will help the community financially

47
Already shown that

• The amount claimed is almost certainly
  exaggerated (30 LF should be nearer 25)
• BUT more importantly it will be intermittent and
  unreliable
• It will NOT serve local households

48
Typical developer claims

• Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity
• Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help
  climate change
• Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated
• Will create jobs
• Will help the community financially

49
The Berrier Hill claim
.there will be emissions savings of 1,271,295
tonnes of carbon dioxide in the 25 year life time
of the w/f. (Data from Eden District
Council) HOW IS THIS FIGURE OBTAINED?

• 22.5 MW wind farm 8760 hrs/year 30
  load factor
• SO
• 22.5 X 8760 X 30 59,130 MWh
• 59,130 X 0.86 tonnes/MWh 50,852 tonnes/yr
• 1,271,295 tonnes in 25 years

BUT IS IT JUSTIFIED?
50
CO2 SAVINGS BY BERRIER HILL WIND FARM
IS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERSTATED
Savings likely to be 3.1 times less than claimed
51

• Quotation from the UKERC Report, The Costs and
  Impacts of Intermittency , March 2006
• Actual CO2 savings are dependent on what fossil
  fuel plant is displaced, reduced by efficiency
  losses in thermal plant
• --------------------------------------------------
  -------------------------
• Seimens, Science in Parliament 60/2, April 2003
• A 2 loss of efficiency in a coal-fired power
  station can increase CO2 emissions by 10

52
So WCE are already in breach of the ASA ruling on
CO2 savingsAND

• homes produce 84 million tonnes of CO2 per year.
  If every home in the UK saved 10 of its
  electricity it would reduce this by 8.4 million
  tonnes.
• By 2010 the Government expects ALL RENEWABLES to
  be saving 9.2 million tonnes

53
Typical developer claims

• Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity
• Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help
  climate change
• Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated
• Will create jobs
• Will help the community financially

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• Challenge this using Government, Regional and
  County guidance and Public Inquiry results
• Planning Policy Statement 22 (PPS22) and
  landscape legislation
• Regional Spatial Strategy
• Cumbrias targets for wind energy generation
• CCC Wind Energy SPD
• Local Plans

55
CPRE Tranquillity Map NW Region
TRANQUILLITY is the quality of calm experienced
in places with mainly natural features and
activities, free from disturbance from
man ______________________________ Tranquil
areas are places where a quality of calm can be
experienced. Tranquillity is one of the
countrysides most valued assets and an important
indicator of countryside quality
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CUMBRIAS LANDSCAPE DESIGNATIONS NP 35.0 AONB
9.7 Heritage Coast 2.7 Under review
7.1 ------------------------------------------- U
ndesignated 45.5
Cumbrias designated areas
so Cumbrias targets are not reasonable
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Landscape Character Types CCC Wind Energy SPD
Lowland
Coastal margins, estuary marsh
Higher limestone
60
CCC Map of Landscape Capacity
Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning
Document (Consultation Draft) - 2006
LANDSCAPE CAPACITY
LOW all scales generally inappropriate
LOW/MODERATE small group (1-5 turbines)
MODERATE small group, exceptionally a large
group (9)
MODERATE to HIGH up to a medium w/f (16-25)
61
Visual Impact of wind turbinesCriteria of the
Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning
Document, August 2006

• Dominant up to 2.4km
• Prominent 2.4 to 6km
• Conspicuous 6 to 12 km
• Apparent 12 to 18 km
• Inconspicuous 18 to 30km

62
Use Appeal decisions such as that at Tallentire
Hill wind masts

• In paragraph 13 the Inspector said
• This proposal would, I conclude, result in
  unacceptable harm to the local landscape in terms
  of its intrinsic quality and local
  distinctiveness, contrary to the objectives of
  the CLDJSP Policy 36

63
Inspectors Report on the Whinash Public Inquiry
says

• 3.29, p.34 - As a whole, the Howgills provide
  expansive views across the most stimulating
  landscape in NW England with dramatic mountains
  of the Lake District forming a continuous skyline
  to the west
• 3.25, p33 - These impacts are not only the
  physical presence of the turbines but also their
  appearance, scale and materials of construction.
  The natural inclination of the eye is to focus on
  discordant, moving features when scanning the
  landscape

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• Cumulative Impact

65
Cumulative impacts

• Berrier Hill (9)
• Lamonby (5)
• Grise (9)
• TOTAL 23 turbines in the prominent to
  conspicuous range
• Each 100 metres ( 328 feet) high
• Will dominate many local villages (Graystoke,
  Penruddock, Newbiggin, Stainton, Blencow,
  Skelton, etc)
• as well as the iconic landcape of the Blencathra
  range

66
Three types of cumulative impactCCC Wind Energy
Supplementary Planning Document, August 2006

• Simultaneous combined visibility when two or
  more schemes are visible from a viewpoint at the
  same time
• Successive combined visibility where the
  observer has to turn to see the successive
  schemes from the same viewpoint
• Sequential visibility where different schemes
  are seen as the observer moves through the
  countryside

67
CUMULATIVE IMPACT
68

• In other words there will be
• significant simultaneous, successive,
  sequential cumulative impacts

69
What the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary
Planning Document says about Cumulative Impact

• Para 4.1, page 11 It is likely that
  increasing significance will be attached to
  cumulative effects in the future.
• Para 4.3, page 12 unacceptable cumulative
  effect may on its own provide sufficient
  justification to oppose a scheme which was
  otherwise acceptable.

70
The view of English Heritage

• SETTING. consideration should be given to the
  impact of wind energy developments on the wider
  landscape setting and visual amenity of historic
  sites
• Consideration of the historic environment should
  include World Heritage Siteshistoric buildings
  and areas designated landscapes and the
  historic character of the wider landscape.
• Wind Energy and the Historic Environment,
• English Heritage October 2005.
• CCC have recently voted to back the Lake
  District bid for World Heritage Site status

71

• Other Issues

Job creation House prices Value to the
Community Noise Wildlife Impacts Hydrology and
water courses History and local
culture Telecommunications Aircraft
72
Typical developer claims

• Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity
• Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help
  climate change
• Will create jobs
• Will help the community financially

73
JOBS developers often justify by their
proposals by quoting the Region Spatial Strategy,
thus..Rural diversification is needed in
upland areas and the more intensively farmed
lowlands to create employment and generate
economic prosperity
74
DO W/Fs GENERATE JOBS?

• May be limited opportunities during the
  construction phase (up to 12 months)
• Most wind farms remotely monitored and foreign
  owned
• Maintenance jobs/servicing less than 2 people per
  10 wind turbnies
• ANSWER THEREFORE IS NO

75
Typical developer claims

• Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity
• Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help
  climate change
• Will create jobs
• Will help the community financially

76
Do wind farms depress house prices?

• Contentious area with conflicting surveys
• Many anecdotal examples of sales falling
  through, etc
• Legal ruling in a case in Cumbria purchasers
  awarded 20 of the cost price in damages because
  they were not informed of a consent for a wind
  farm
• Reductions in Council Tax of one band has been
  agreed in several areas where properties have
  been affected by wind farms
• Results of the Royal Institution of Chartered
  Surveyors Report (2003) on the impact of wind
  farms on property values
• In Denmark compensation is being considered

77
RICS Survey some results
.60 of RICS members in the NW reported a fall
in house prices due to wind farm plans ..More
than half of those surveyors involved in
residential property transactions affected by a
wind farm..reported that values were lower than
for comparable properties that were
unaffected. The negative impact of wind farms
on property values appears to decline over
time. the three main reasons for this
negative impact on property values were, (i)
visual impact after completion, (ii) the fear of
blight, and (iii) proximity
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Report,
March 2004
78
Will it impact tourism?

• Report of the Small Business Council1 of the DTI
  says
• We argue that the current trend towards high
  levels of wind energy development onshore
  presents an unacceptable threat to rural
  businesses
• The effects on the rural economy of onshore
  wind development should be a material
  consideration in the determination of
  application(s) and should form part of the
  cost-benefit analysis
• Because the wind farm will dominate the area it
  seems inconceivable that it will not affect local
  tourism
• 1. UK Energy Policy The Small Business
  Perspective Impact on the Rural Economy (7/2006)

79
VISITOR OPINION SURVEYS
A who would not return to place where w/fs
are built
B Potential loss to the economy
C Potential loss of FTE jobs
Source UK Energy Policy The Small Business
Perspective the Impact on the Rural Economy.
DTI Small Business Council, June 2006, page 18
80
What about noise?

• ETSU-R97 is out of date
• --------------------------------------------
  
• The first recommendation of the UK
• Noise Association Report said
• It would be prudent that no wind turbines
  should be sited closer than 1 mile away from the
  nearest dwellings. This is the distance the
  Academy of Medicine in Paris is recommending
  until further studies are carried out
• Location, Location, Location An investigation
  into wind farms and noise by the Noise
  Association, July 2006

81
Do wind farms have any benefits?

• VERY FEW
• CO2-free at the point of generation
• The fuel is free
• Some people find them attractive
• May generate some income for the locality from a
  community fund

82
How much will Berrier Hill earn?

• At a load factor of 30 it would generate
• 22.5 X 8760 X 30 59,130 MWh per year
• --------------------------------------------------
  ----
• Wholesale price 30/MWh
  1,773,900
• ROCs are 48/MWh 2,838,240
• CCL payback fines is 5/MWh
  295,650
• TOTAL 4.91 millions/ year
• 122.75 million in 25 years
• Community fund is likely to be about 0.5 of
  income

83
Do we need wind farms? NO

• New nuclear build likely
• New clean coal power station announced this month
  on Teeside
• Govt now taking realistic action on energy
  efficiency, transport, biomass, and local
  generation etc.
• With offshore wind farms and applications in
  Scotland, Wales England the targets are already
  exceeded (gt20GW in the pipeline)
• EVEN WITHOUT THESE THE TARGETS
• CAN BE MET

84
CONCLUSIONS

• Electricity production is overstated
• CO2 saving is greatly overstated
• Close to National Parks AONBs is the wrong
  place for wind farms
• Significant cumulative impact will utterly
  dominate the immediate countryside
• The moving blades will constantly disturb
• Negative impact on house values, on tourism and
  the local economy
• The wind farm is unlikely to be removed after 25
  yrs, rather it will be repowered
• Nearby houses may suffer from noise and flicker
  disturbance

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Some things to do

• Set up an action group to formulate an objection
• UNITE with other groups
• Get support of the Great and Good
• Identify and use key web sites for information
• Identify all relevant planning policies
• Research the site and the proposals
• Show how the application is contrary to policy
• Lobby all your councillors Eden D.C. MUST
  refuse planning permission
• Ensure all affected Parishes object
• Leaflet all affected households
• Write individual letters to the District Council
• Alert caravan holders, guest houses, businesses

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Sources of Information

• 1. Decisions of Planning Inquiries
• (a) England http//www.planningportal.gov.uk/eng
  land/genpub/en/1102936775950.html
• (b) Scotland
• http//www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Planning/App
  eals/seiruSearch
• 2. Renewable Energy Foundation web site for
  technical matters on UK wind
• www.ref.org.uk
• 3. Country Guardian web site
• www.countryguardian.net
• 4. National Wind Watch (UK and International
  daily news)
• www.wind-watch.org

87
This may be the right place for turbines
Berrier Hill is not
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In the end, our society will be defined not only
by what we create, but by what we refuse to
destroy
John C Sawhill, President, US Nature Conservancy
Council