Presidential Nominations

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Presidential Nominations
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Who selects the nominee?

• Historically
• Members of Congress
• State party leaders
• Primary voters
• (Or just those in Iowa and New Hampshire?)

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Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading

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Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading
• Effect on Momentum?
• Importance of the Invisible Primary?
• Demise of public finance?

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The demise of public finance

• FECA Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates
  who enter primary elections
• All funds candidates raise in amounts of 250 or
  less (if they raise 5000 in 20 different states)
  are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of
  election year
• If you take the federal money, you abide by
  overall and state by state spending restrictions
  (about 44 million in 2004)
• Public financing (74 million in 2004) for
  general election campaigns (with limits on
  campaign spending)

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Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading
• Effect on Momentum?
• Importance of the Invisible Primary?
• Demise of public finance?
• PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party)

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California

• Open primary
• 370 delegates selected today
• 241 allocated proportionally based on primary
  results in each of 53 congressional districts
• 129 allocated based on statewide vote
• Polls close 800 pm

3 delegates CDs 20, 47 4 delegates CDs 2, 3,
11, 16, 18, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 32, 34, 38,
39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 52 5
delegates CDs 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, 23,
24, 27, 28, 29, 33, 35, 36, 37, 50, 53 6
delegates CDs 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 30
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California

• Closed Primary
• 170 delegates
• 159 allocated to the winner in each of 53
  congressional districts (3 per district)
• 11 allocated to winner of statewide vote
• Polls close 8pm

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Delegate count so far
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Who is advantaged by these rules?
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So who selects the nominee?

• State party leaders?
• Primary voters?
• Large contributors?
• The Press?
• A combination?