Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

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Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

• Government Office for Science
• Department for Innovation, Universities and
  Skills
• Overview by
• Colin Thorne
• University of Nottingham
• colin.thorne_at_nottingham.ac.uk
• on behalf of the Foresight Team

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• Overview
• Project aims
• Methodology
• River, Coastal and Intra-urban Drivers
• Predicting Future Risks (baseline case)
• Responses Structural and nonstructural measures
• Costs and Affordability of Responses
• Final Messages and Further Information

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June 2007
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July 2007
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Foresight Project Aims

• Produce a long-term vision for future flood and
  coastal risks and their management in the UK.
• Cover all aspects of flood coastal erosion risk
  for the whole UK, looking 30 100 years ahead.
• Provide a reliable evidence-base for decision
  makers, using expert knowledge and high level
  flood and erosion risk analyses.
• Supply the underpinning science for
  national-level policy making.

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• Methodology

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The flooding system
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Foresight Futures 2020
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Foresight Futures 2020 UKCIP2002 climate
change scenarios
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• .

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• Flood Risk Drivers
• Deep Description and Qualitative Analysis

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• Future Flood Risks
• Drivers of River and Coastal Flooding

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Drivers of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk
any phenomenon that changes the state of the
flooding system
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• Baseline ranking of river and coastal drivers
• Socio-economic drivers
• Coastal drivers
• Precipitation
• Big scenario differences

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• Major uncertainties
• Sea level rise
• Coastal morphology
• Surges
• Precipitation
• Stakeholder behaviour
• Public AttitudesExpectations

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Future Flood Risks Drivers of intra-urban
flooding

• The catchment and coastal risk analysis
  treated urban areas as receptor units
  containing people, property and infrastructure.
  
• Another set of sources and flood pathways at
  local scales operates within urban areas due to
  extremely intense rainfall and/or congested
  drainage (sewer) flooding - termed intra-urban
  flooding.

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Drivers in urban areas

• Plus
• Stakeholder behaviour
• Urban planning policy

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• Ranking of intra-urban scale drivers
• Social impacts
• Asset deterioration
• Intense Precipitation
• Environmental management and regulation

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• Quantitative Analysis of Future Flood and Coastal
  Erosion Risks
• (Baseline Case)

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Modeling National quantitative risk
analysis Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning
Data used Rivers and coastlines Floodplain
mapping Standard of protection Condition of
defences Addresses of all properties/people at
risk Flood damage by depth Social
vulnerability Agricultural land grade
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Calculating future flood risk
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Dominant Floodplain Class (2002)
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Flood Risk Predictions for 2050 and 2080
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Expected annual damages millions (currently
1billion)
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• Baseline Conclusions unless we act-
• Future flooding and coastal erosion are very
  serious threats to the UK.
• They represent a major challenge to government
  and society.
• Combining the World Markets and Low emissions
  scenarios reduces future expected annual economic
  damages by only 25.

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ResponsesOptions for managing future flood and
coastal erosion riskssustainably
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Potential Responses
80 individual responses
Organised into 25 response groups

• And 5 response themes
• Reducing urban runoff
• Reducing rural runoff
• Managing flood events
• Managing flood losses
• Engineering and large scale re-alignment or
  abandonment

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Deep Response Descriptions

• Definition, Function and Efficacy
• Governance
• Sustainability

• Costs
• Interactions
• Case example
• Emerging issues
• Uncertainty

• Potential for implementation under
  each of the four Foresight future scenarios

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Responses with the most potential for risk
reductions

• Structural Important, but need to rethink
  Coastal Defences
• Non-structural We can manage down flood
  erosion losses

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How much will it cost are responses affordable?

• The cost of implementing engineering- based
  structural approach alone to achieve the
  indicative standard of defence in the 2080s is
  52 billion
• The cost of using structural defences as part of
  an integrated portfolio of structural and
  non-structural responses is 22 billion

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Delivering the message

• First level Briefing notes for elected
  officials
• Second level Technical reports, papers and book
• Third level Working documents and project
  record
• Fourth level Video game for practitioners and
  students

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Flood Ranger Video Game
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• Final Messages
• Future flood and coastal erosion risks are likely
  to increase due to climate, economic, social and
  planning drivers if we go on as we are.
• We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by
  our actions on global emissions and governance.
• There are feasible and sustainable responses that
  can hold risk at present day levels affordably -
  if implemented through Integrated Flood Risk
  Management.
• But we must act now in developing new policies to
  allow non-structural measures to be effective in
  time.

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Closing Statement
Have confidence UK Foresight proves it is
possible to develop a long-term vision for
IFRM. Politicians will listen and act provided
that your messages are clear and are properly
supported by the best science and engineering
analyses available.
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Further Information

• Flood Foresight
• www.foresight.gov.uk
• Follow links for flood and coastal defence
• UK Research Consortium on Flood Risk Management
• www.floodrisk.org.uk

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Over to the Break-out Groups!

• Colin Thorne
• University of Nottingham
• colin.thorne_at_nottingham.ac.uk