Making Room for Californias Future: Why the Central Valley Matters

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Making Room for Californias Future Why the
Central Valley Matters
4th Victor Jones Memorial Lecture on Metropolitan
GovernanceFebruary 3, 2006Berkeley,
California Carol WhitesideThe Great Valley
Center201 Needham Street Modesto, California
95354carol_at_greatvalley.orgwww.greatvalley.org
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What is a region?
National Resources Planning Committee, Regional
Factors in National Planning and Development
(Washington, D. C. United States Government
Printing Office, 1935)
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BY BIOREGION?
BY WATERSHED?
BY COUNTY?
How we do information searches on CERES
(www.ceres.ca.gov)
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Regional Government in then United
StatesLimited Application today
Portland, Oregon1979
Indianapolis, Indiana1970
FIRST MAJOR REGIONAL GOVERNMENT IN 25 YEARS
Louisville, Kentucky 2003
Minneapolis-St. Paul 1967
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In California, Sacramento tried unsuccessfully in
the 1980s
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Sacramento Regional Blueprint Elected Officials
Summit October 2004
Sacramento Region Land Use and Transportation
Blueprint adopted by 6-county Sacramento Area
Council of Governments in December 2005
Over 5,000 citizen participants at workshops and
forums
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But the call of secession is more often seen as
the solution
Mendocino County tried to break up in 1990s
Mining Pitch
For being double crossed by Sacramento in 1941
San Fernando Valley, 2002
Rural Northern California State of Jefferson
effort lives on in spirit
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California Regionalism
Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), 1961
Bi-state compact ratified by Congress in 1969
Multi-county Regionalism around biodiversity,1995
A testament to Victor Jones efforts
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In Californias political environment, people
want to vote on everything or they get nervous
Percent of U.S. Ballot Measures by State in 2000
Source Growth at the Ballot Box Electing the
Shape of Communities, The Brookings Institution,
2001.
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Regionalism Today
Environmental Resources and challenges dont
follow political boundaries
Proximity less important as telecommunications
offers new opportunities for civic engagement
More People move through jurisdictions in their
day-to-day lives
Commuters over the Altamont Pass on I-580
Smog over downtown Fresno obscuring the Sierra
Nevada
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BAKERSFIELD
FRESNO
450 miles long
MERCED
MODESTO
BERKELEY
SACRAMENTO
50 miles wide
Californias Great Central Valley from space
REDDING
Source NASA
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The Geography of the region The San Joaquin,
Sacramento and Tulare Valleys Circa 1902
Note the presence of Tulare LakeAn
intermittent lake once sourced by the Kings,
Kaweah and Kern Rivers
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The Regions Economy Valley Agriculture
transitioned from dry-farmed grains in the 1870s
to crops dominated by irrigated water by the 1900s
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Water has defined the region Depression-era State
and Federal projects now serve a farming area the
size of England and more than 30 million
Californians
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• Resulting Economic Impact of Central Valley
  Today
• Produces more than 300 crops
• 57 of states 30 billion agricultural output
• Would rank first in agricultural production if
  it were a state
• Source California Department of Food and
  Agriculture

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Today, 20 of Central Valley workers directly or
indirectly dependon agriculture Source
Economic Development Dept., 2004
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Looking AheadMore people than San Francisco Bay
Area by 2020 The equivalent of 10 new Fresnos by
2040San Joaquin Valley up 131 by 2050
Source Hans Johnson, Public Policy Institute of
California Calif. Dept. of Finance
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Central Valleys Projected Growth Rates Outpace
Mexico, California and U.S.
100 Population in each area in 1970
Source CA Dept. of Finance Hans Johnson,
Public Policy Institute of California,
www.ppic.org
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Central Valleys Projected Growth Rates Outpace
Mexico, California and U.S.
100 Population in each area in 1970
Source CA Dept. of Finance Hans Johnson,
Public Policy Institute of California,
www.ppic.org
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What is causing population growth in the Valley?
Coastal housing costs are one reason Median
Single Family Home Sale Price in August 2005 SF
Bay Area 730,360 California 568,890
San Joaquin Valley 363,720
Source California Association of Realtors
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What is causing population growth in the
Valley? Rapid Immigration is anotherreason

Foreign Migration by Subregion to the Central
Valley is concentrated between Madera and Kern
Counties
Source Hans Johnson, Public Policy Institute of
California US Census Bureau
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What is causing population growth in the
Valley?- 65 of regions growth due to
natural increase- 35 due to Domestic and
Foreign Migration
Source Public Policy Institute of California,
Hans Johnson, Central Valley at the Crossroads
(Feb 2005)
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Yet Regional Per Capita Income Relative to State
has dropped (100 State Per Capita Income)
Source Public Policy Institute of California
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Higher percentage of kids under 18 living in
poverty
San Joaquin Valley 26 California
17 United States 20
Poverty Rate by County
Source US Census Bureau, 2000. KIDSCOUNT Survey,
Casey Foundation. Share of children under age
18 who live in families with incomes below the
U.S. poverty threshold, as defined by the U.S.
Office of Management and Budget
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Impacts of Growth Vehicle Hours of Delay have
increasedsince 1998 Up 52 in the North San
Joaquin Valley Up 577 (not a typo!) in the
South San Joaquin Valley
Altamont Pass at Interstate 580
Source Caltrans, 2004
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Impacts of Growth Poor Air Quality

• Top 10 Most Ozone-polluted cities
• Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, Calif.
• Fresno, Calif.
• Bakersfield, Calif.
• Visalia-Tulare-Porterville, Calif.
• Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, Texas
• Sacramento-Yolo, Calif.
• Merced, Calif.
• Atlanta, Ga.
• Knoxville, Tenn.
• Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, N.C.-S.C.

Downtown Fresno and smog obscuring the Sierra
Nevada
Source American Lung Association 2003 State of
the Air Report
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Impacts of Growth Brewing Discussions of Land
Use
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The Great Valley Center is nonprofit,
nonpartisan and Valley-focused

• Founded in 1997
• Based in Modesto, California
• Supported by major California foundations and
  hundreds of smaller individual and corporate
  contributions

The Great Valley Centers Headquarters, Downtown
Modesto
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Creating the Constituency and Sense of
RegionThe Great Valley Center supports
organizations and activities working to improve
the economic, social and environmental well-being
of the Great Central Valley

• GVC has granted 5 million throughout the Valley
  since 1997
• Regional Intermediary

• 4 Leadership Programs
• Neutral Media Source
• Information Clearinghouse

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The Key Issues in the Central Valley

• Growth and Change
• Limited capacity
• Fragmentation
• Aspiration Gap

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Growth and Change

• Constituency
• Information and Indicators
• There are no leaders without followers.

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Limited Capacity

• Leadership Development
• Grants
• New Ideas

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Fragmentation

• Conferences
• Coordination
• Highway 99

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Aspiration Gap

• Parity
• Build on Assets

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Highway 99 connectseverything
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In California today, regionalism works when there
is value added
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The Partnership must report to the Governor by
October 2006
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Blueprint Grant awarded to San Joaquin Valley
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9th Annual Central Valley ConferenceMay
10-11th, 2006Sacramento, California www.greatv
alley.org