TNS Media IntelligenceCMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

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TNS Media Intelligence/CMAGElection
2006Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

• 2006TVB Forecast Conference

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TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG

• Located in Arlington, VA
• Providing political research since 1997
• Track and analyze political public affairs and
  issue-advocacy advertising
• Experienced political researchers assemble the
  most reliable comprehensive research and
  reporting 
• Help clients better manage their media strategy,
  media buys, public relations and communication
  efforts
• National trade associations, foundations, Fortune
  100 companies, national media organizations,
  academia and hundreds of national, statewide and
  local political campaigns rely on CMAG data

www.tnsmi-cmag.com ? 1-866-559-CMAG Info_at_tnsmi-cma
g.com
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Powerful Media IntelligenceInnovative
Technology, Experienced Professionals

• Data collection is powered by the most innovative
  technologies to ensure
• Most accurate capture of activity
• Fastest processing of information
• Supported by political professionals who
  specialize in political classifications, coding
  and market factors

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Elections 2006

• The Landscape
• Reaching the Voters
• 2006 Forecast

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The Business of Politics

• The Democrats' project is being considered a new
  benchmark in the trend toward permanent
  campaigns, which specialists said is
  transforming the political culture. The Boston
  Globe

• 2004 Overview
• Impact of new laws on increase funds spending
• As Fundraising increased so did the overall share
  of Ad Spending
• TV expenditures exceeded 1.7 billion in 2004
• More campaigns using TV advertising
• The permanent campaign
• Culture of Advocacy
• 527s/ Issue groups
• Corporate interests (telecom, energy, healthcare)
• Industry associations (PhRMA, EEI, AHIP, USTA,
  NCTA)

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Many Moving Parts of Presidential Advertising
Updated 11/11/2004
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ELECTIONS 2005

• 2005
• Picked Up Where 2004 Ended
• TNSMI/CMAG Captured Over 425,000 Ad Airings
• Over 528 Million in Political and Issue Advocacy
  Television Advertising
• Over 2 Dozen 2006 Races On The Air In 2005
• 2005 was Truly a Banner Year for Off-Year
  Political Advertising

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2006 Elections

• Reaching the Voters

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Challenges to Political Advertisers
In the wake of the 2000 election, each political
party, convinced that its opponent was getting
ahead, stepped up its investments in technology
and information-gathering.-NY Times

• Fragmented TV audience increasingly difficult to
  target
• Media clutter
• Ratings do not always identify key political
  constituencies
• Media mix expanding in attempt to bracket
  consumers
• More radio
• Specifically top radio
• Move away from niche radio, i.e. Christian
• Move from direct mail to web/e-mail
• Message clutter
• TV ad production costs decreasing
• Longer campaigns
• Earlier Ads
• Year-round campaigning (no more off-years)

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Strength Of Commitment To The Registered Party

• Commitment is high among the voters in this
  market that are registered to a political party
• 76 are committed to their party
• 53 are in the most committed segment
  (entrenched) and are hence very unlikely to
  switch parties in the near future
• Only 3 of the registered voters are at a high
  risk of switching (convertible)

76.0 Committed
24.0 Uncommitted

Entrenched
Average
Shallow
Convertible
Read 53.0 of all respondents are entrenched to
their main political party
n2478
Weighted base
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Strength Of Commitment To The Different Parties

• Commitment to the Republican Party and the
  Democratic Party is very similar among their
  registered voters
• Each party is strong among its users, and both
  have a similar proportion of committed users

Uncommitted
Committed
77
23
75
25
Weighted base
Caution small base size
Read For The Republican Party 54 of its users
are entrenched, 23 are average, 21 are shallow
and 3 are convertible
Numbers 0.5 rounded up
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Market Overview US Commitment Norms
How does the market compare to Conversion Model
studies worldwide?

• Difficult markets to enter
• Not price sensitive
• Deserving of advertising to support the brand

• Easier markets to enter
• Price sensitive
• Hard to justify brand-building through advertising

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Race to the Finish Line (2004 Election)

• 84 Of US House and 74 of US Senate Ad Spending
  in the Last 30 Days
• 99 Of US House and 97 of US Senate Ad Spending
  in the Last 60 Days
• 15.5 million spent by 527s on Senate and House
  races
• 140 million Spent on the Presidential Race

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Current Available Voter/Campaign Spending
Relationship

Available Voters
Advertising Spending

?
Jan.
Nov.
Election Year
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Media Habits Finding Trending Data

• Cable (Households with digital cable)
• Democrats 31
• Republicans 27
• Newspaper Readership (Frequent Readers of Daily
  Newspapers)
• Democrats -- 52 (8 NYTimes, 3 WSJ, USA Today
  8)
• Republicans 47 (3 NYTimes, 6 WSJ, USA Today
  7)
• Internet Preferences
• Democrats -- News, Financial, Entertainment,
  Shopping, Search, Travel, Music, Local
• Republicans News, Financial, Shopping, Search,
  Travel, Medical, Local
• 9 visit some type of Blog 8 visit political
  blogs
• Radio Preferences
• Democrats RB, Classic Rock, Oldies, Public
  Radio
• Republicans Classic Rock, Oldies, Talk

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New Media More Questions than Answers For
Political

• Micro-targeting with Political Ads
• In 2004 only 9 of Political and Issue Ad
  Spending was on Media Outside of Broadcast TV
  (This is not including spot cable)
• The Growing Infatuation with the Web
• Cable TV Network vs. Spot
• VOD, DVR, TIVO, On-Demand
• New Media is Growing and Is Becoming More
  Portable

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2006 Elections

• 2006 Forecast

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ELECTION 2006

• 2006 Forecast
• Based on the sheer number of open and competitive
  federal, state, and local races in 2006, as well
  as increasing contribution limits, TNSMI-CMAG
  foresees a robust advertising market.
• Nearly half of the gubernatorial races, 40 of
  the Senate races, and up to 50-60 U.S. House
  races are considered in-play.
• Current CMAG projection places year-end spending
  well over 1 billion, possibly toping 2004 record
  totals.

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2006 Governors Races
Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New
Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania
Rhode Island South Carolina South
Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wyoming

• Alabama
• Alaska
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• California
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Florida
• Georgia
• Hawaii
• Idaho
• Illinois
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Maine
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Michigan

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2006 Governors Races
Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New
Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania
Rhode Island South Carolina South
Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wyoming
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorad
o Connecticut Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinoi
s Iowa Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michiga
n

• Thirty-six States Will Hold Gubernatorial
  Elections In 2006
• Many States Will Have Competitive Primaries
• Third-party Spending Will Rival That of The 2004
  Presidential Race
• RGA was a Leading Fundraiser In 2005
• Several Key 2008 States Have Governors Races

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2006 Senate Races
New Jersey New Mexico New York North
Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Te
xas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West
Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Ha
waii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan
Minnesota Mississippi Missouri MontanaNebraska N
evada
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2006 Senate Races
New Jersey New Mexico New York North
Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Te
xas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West
Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Ha
waii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan
Minnesota Mississippi Missouri MontanaNebraska N
evada

• 33 Senate seats are up for election in 2006
• Currently 10-13 Seats In-Play
• Unsettled Political Climate May Increase the
  Number of Seats In-Play
• 527s Will Be Active in Targeted Races
• Self Funders

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Other Factors 2006-2008

• Democrats Campaign to Retake Control of the US
  House Will Be the Most Aggressive Since 1998,
  Making a Greater Number of Seats In-play
• State Elected Offices Will Continue To See An
  Increase In Spending and Length of Advertising
  Campaigns
• More Ballot Measures
• State And Federal Issue Advocacy Ad Spending Will
  Increase
• 2008 Presidential Campaign Will Be Historical In
  Its Length And Cost

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Perfect Storm Markets

• Phoenix
• San Diego
• Denver
• Hartford
• Miami
• Tampa
• Atlanta
• Chicago
• Cedar Rapids
• Cincinnati
• Cleveland
• Charleston
• Providence

• Tri-Cities
• Philadelphia
• Louisville
• Baltimore
• Minneapolis
• Manchester (NH)
• Charlotte
• Greenville
• Seattle
• Burlington VT
• Oklahoma City

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Political and Issue ad Spending

• 2006
• TV Over 160 million In the 1st Quarter (40
  Million Behind 2004 at the same point)
• Almost 100 million in Issue Ad Spending
  Dominated by State and Federal Campaigns on
  Telecom, Tort Reform and Healthcare
• Over 57 million in Ad Spending on Political Ads
  Dominated by Early Primary Spending in TX, NY,
  CA, IL, TN, OH, VT, RI
• Historically 90 of US Senate Spending and 80 of
  US House Spending Happens the last 60 Days

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2008 Cant Wait!