Development and Evolution of Operational Forecast Systems for the Coastal and Estuarine Environment

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Development and Evolution of Operational Forecast
Systems for the Coastal and Estuarine Environment
in NOAAs National Ocean Service

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Frank Aikman III, Richard Patchen and Mark
Vincent NOAAS National Ocean Service
IOOS MAST Workshop July 22-24, 2008 Arlington, VA
Acknowledgements to Zack Bronder, Mary
Erickson, Tom Gross, Kurt Hess, John Kelley, Hong
Lin, Lyon Lanerolle, Greg Mott, Ed Myers, Dick
Schmalz, Cristina Urizar, Eugene Wei, and Aijun
Zhang
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Outline

• The State of NOSs Operational Forecast Systems
• The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
• Community Approach and Transition
• NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges

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Operational defined

• Requirements-driven (users)
• Built to well-defined standards
• Runs regularly automatically (24x7)
• QC (integrity guaranteed)
• Stability commitment

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NOS Marine Modeling Requirements

• Support of safe efficient navigation
• Water levels for under-keel clearance
• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability
• Emergency response
• HAZMAT
• Homeland Security
• Search Rescue
• For environmentally sound management of the
  coastal zone
• Ecosystem applications
• Marine geospatial applications
  

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Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS)

• Operational since August 2001

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Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System
(CBOFS2)
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Inputs to Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast
System
Weather Forecast Model
CO-OPS PORTS
Hi-res Mesoscale Weather Forecast Model
NAM (WRF)
NOS East Coast Data Assimilation Model
Chesapeake Bay
RIVER INPUTS
NOS CBOFS Model
Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National
Ocean Service, NOAA
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Individual Model Systems
NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
Standardized for any model at any location
QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7
NOS OPERATIONAL MODELS
REAL-TIME DATA INGEST
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE (water level, water temp,
currents, salinity) PRODUCTS (web pages and
digital pt. gridded data) FOR USERS
QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7
Consistent with IOOS (DMAC) the Earth System
Modeling Framework (ESMF) and COARDS/CF
Conventions
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Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkConsists of
middleware to manage workflow

• OBJECTIVE More efficient RD, OM
• PURPOSE
• Establish a Standardized System (NetCDF)
• Simplify Data Handling Maintenance
• Share Skill Assessment/Evaluation Procedures,
  Metrics, and Tools
• Transition Enable an efficient
  technology-transfer process
• Various Models Allowed For Experimentation
• ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, POM, SELFE,
  QUODDY, ROMS
• NOS to select two or three corporate models to
  move forward with
• For OFS Structured Grid - ROMS Unstructured
  Grid FVCOM
• For VDatum Tidal Modeling and Storm Surge -
  ADCIRC

Consistent with IOOS (DMAC) the Earth System
Modeling Framework (ESMF) and COARDS/CF
Conventions
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Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkStandards
Procedures

• Models, products, assessment, documentation will
  be as uniform as possible
• NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing
  Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic
  Model Systems, NOAA Tech Rep NOS CO-OPS 39, May
  2003
• NOS Standards for Evaluating Operational Nowcast
  and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems, NOAA
  Tech Rep NOS CS 17, October 2003
• Strategic and Implementation Plan for the
  National Operational Coastal Modeling Program
  FY2004-2010, NOAA/NOS OCS and CO-OPS, 2004
• IMPLEMENTATION OF MODEL SKILL ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE
  FOR WATER LEVEL AND CURRENT IN TIDAL REGIONS,
  NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 24, March 2006
• NOS Skill Assessment Criteria (Metrics)
• Variable Water Level Currents
• CF 15 cm (0.9) 26 cm/s (0.9)
• POF/NOF 30 cm (

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Prototype Test Bed The Delaware Bay Model
Evaluation Environment
Bathymetry
Grids
Metrics
Model Hindcast
COMMUNITY MODELS
ROMS, POM, ADCIRC, FVCOM, ELCIRC, SELFE, ....
Historical Data
Environmental conditions
Grids, Bathymetry, Environmental conditions
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The Community Approach

• A community approach
• Allows for open discussion of strengths and
  weaknesses of different models
• Elucidates the requirements of a common shared
  infrastructure
• Allows model improvements to be shared
  effectively
• Advances the science (research and operations)
• Leverages resources and amplifies the voice of
  the community

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The Pathway from Research to Operations and
Applications
Evaluation and Testing, Development, Transition
to Operations
Research and Development
Value Added Product Development
Operations
Academia, IOOS Regional Associations, Research
components of NOAA other Federal Agencies
Private Sector
Actively manage these interfaces, through
community modeling partnerships
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NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges

• Transition from individual port models to a
  regional modeling approach
• Transitioning NOS OFS to the NOAA HPC facility
  maintained by NCEP
• Coupled Model Systems
• Riverine-estuarine-coastal-basin
• Hydrodynamic-wave hydrodynamic-sediment
  transport
• Physical-biogeochemical coupling (ecological
  water quality habitat)
• Forecast uncertainty estimation
• Probabilistic approach
• Ensemble averaging
• Data assimilation techniques
• HF Radar coastal altimetry IOOS data etc.
• Higher spatial resolution in key areas (e.g. in
  navigation channels for storm surge and
  inundation modeling)
• Nesting vs. unstructured grids
• Finite difference, finite element and finite
  volume approaches

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Transition to a Regional Modeling Approach
Regional Model Systems
Individual Port Model Systems
NY Bight
Gulf of Maine
Ches/Del
Louisiana
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Development of a West Florida Shelf 3D Prediction
System
Coupling of Basin Model to Shelf/Estuary Model
(for HABs)
? GOM model nodes
Gulf of Mexico
West Florida Shelf
Tampa Bay
Charlotte Harbor
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NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges

• Transition from individual port models to a
  regional modeling approach
• Transitioning NOS OFS to the NOAA HPC facility
  maintained by NCEP
• Coupled Model Systems
• Riverine-estuarine-coastal-basin
• Hydrodynamic-wave hydrodynamic-sediment
  transport
• Physical-biogeochemical coupling (ecological
  water quality habitat)
• Forecast uncertainty estimation
• Probabilistic approach
• Ensemble averaging
• Data assimilation techniques
• HF Radar coastal altimetry IOOS data etc.
• Higher spatial resolution in key areas (e.g. in
  navigation channels for storm surge and
  inundation modeling)
• Nesting vs. unstructured grids
• Finite difference, finite element and finite
  volume approaches

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To Summarize

• The State of NOSs Operational Forecast Systems
• The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
• Community Approach and Transition
• NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges

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Ecosystem Applications ofHydrodynamic Models

• Noxious biota
• Sea nettle probabilities
• Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Red tide in Gulf of Mexico
• Hazardous materials dispersion (HAZMAT)
• Future Model Coupling
• Riverine-estuarine-coastal-basin
• Hydrodynamic-wave hydrodynamic-sediment
  transport
• Physical-biogeochemical coupling (ecosystem
  ecological water quality habitat fish
  recruitment etc.).