Overview of The Environmental Modeling Center Stephen J. Lord Director NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

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Overview of The Environmental Modeling
CenterStephen J. LordDirectorNCEP
Environmental Modeling Center
where Americas climate and weather services begin
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Overview

• EMC Missions
• EMC Organization
• Scientific Development Highlight
• EMC Research Highlight
• Summary

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EMC Mission

• Develop Numerical Forecast Systems for
• Weather prediction (domestic, global, 1-15 days)
• Ocean prediction (daily to annual, coastal to
  global)
• Climate prediction (seasonal to inter-annual,
  coupled system)
• Enhance (Test Improve) Numerical Forecasts
  Through Advanced
• Data assimilation techniques
• Model physics (parameterizations)
• Numerical methods
• Computational efficiency/adaptation to new
  hardware
• Maintain the scientific correctness and integrity
  of operational forecast systems
• Adapt to format changes and other changing
  operational requirements
• Monitor and ensure the integrity of operational
  observing systems

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EMC Mission (cont)

• Objectives accomplished by
• In-house research and development
• Cooperative alliances with the outside research
  community (e.g. Government Commercial Labs,
  Universities)
• Visiting scientists
• Participation in international experiments

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Environmental Modeling Center
Director Deputy Director Team Leaders Administrati
ve Staff ---------------------------- 10
EMC Contractors ----------------------------- 50 E
MC Visiting Scientists ---------------------------
-- 18
Science Community Universities NOAA Labs
OGP NASA NCAR World NWP Centers FAA
JCSDA Test Beds
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Environmental Modeling Center Service-Science
Linkage
Service
Marine Coastal Ocean DB Rao Mesoscale Atmosphere G. DiMego Global Climate Weather Atmosphere Ocean H.-L. Pan Science
X X X Data Assimilation Leader J. Derber
X X Climate Leader Vacant
X X X Model Atmosphere/Ocean/Ice Dynamics Physics
X X X Land Surface/Hydrology Leader K. Mitchell
X X Ensembles Probabilistic Guidance
X X X Hurricanes Leader N. Surgi
X X X Products Development Utilization
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TRADITIONAL NWP PROCESS
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Scientific Development Highlights

• Global and Regional Forecast System (GFS and
  ETA)
• Global Coupled Forecast System
• Global and Regional Ensemble Forecast System
• Daily Ocean Forecasting
• Satellite Data Assimilation
• (with the NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center
• for Satellite Data Assimilation)
• Hurricane Forecasting
• Land Surface Modeling Data Assimilation
• (GEWEX, GAPP)

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Other Major EMC Projects

• Weather Research and Forecast System - Develop
  mesoscale forecast system in collaboration
  with U. S. research community
• Operational Air Quality Forecasting -
  Northeast U. S. - National capability
  eventually
• Regional Global Reanalyses
• Earth System Modeling Framework - Construct
  new infrastructure for global/mesoscale
• THORPEX - International Research and Field
  Experiments on Data Assimilation and
  Predictability

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Ocean Model Forecast

• Collaborate with partners for technology infusion
  into NWS operational modeling environment
• E.g. GFDL MOM3 for Seasonal to Interannual (S/I)
  problem
• Provide feedback on new model development,
  observations to scientific community
• Provide operational forecasts, analyses and
  observations to users
• Provide routine ocean state products on relevant
  time and space scales
• Quality controlled, uniformly formatted ocean
  observations
• Use ocean models coupled to atmosphere to improve
  environmental forecast systems
• Participate in community efforts to demonstrate
  capabilities
• International experiments
• E. g., Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
  (GODAE)
• Interagency efforts
• Ocean Data Assimilation for S/I (ODASI)
• Software engineering, system compatibility
• E.g., Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)

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Coupled Model SimulationSystem Configuration

• 38 year run
• Fully coupled system (NO FLUX CORRECTION)
• NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS)
  atmospheric model
• 200 km resolution, 64 levels
• Model top 0.2 mb
• MOM3 ocean model (GFDL)
• Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)
• Ocean model operational by September 2003
• 100 km resolution, 40 levels
• Sensitivity result using 28 level atmospheric
  model
• Initial conditions
• Operational Global Data Assimilation System
• GODAS
• 1 January 2002
• Observed Fields NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis/CDAS

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• Hindcasts of Tropical SST with the Coupled System
• 2-member ensemble over 22 years from 1981-2002
  from initial conditions of April 21.
• 13 month coupled integration
• Initial atmospheric states
• 1) From NCEP Reanalysis II
• 2) Long AMIP integration of the atmospheric
  model
• Initial ocean states
• NCEP GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation
  System)
• Same for both ensemble members

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Hindcasts of Tropical SST with the Coupled
System (cont)

• 44 runs have been made
• Hindcast skill estimated after doing a bias
  correction for each year, using a model
  climatology based on the other years.
• Results for both members
• Also includes
• Hindcast skill for the current operational
  system (CMP14)
• State-of-the-art empirical methods (the
  Constructed Analog technique, CASST)

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• Conclusions
• Preliminary results indicate that from initial
  conditions of late
• April, the new model
• shows remarkable hindcast skill all the way out
  to April of the next year at levels above 75
  anomaly correlation
• It handily beats the benchmark hindcast skill of
  the current operational coupled system
• It also beats one of the state-of-the-art
  empirical methods used by CPC, namely the CASST,
  which is no mean feat !!
• From January initial conditions, predictions are
  less skillful but nevertheless useful and better
  using realistic (Reanl2) initial conditions.

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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
(Mission)
The mission of the Joint Center for Satellite
Data Assimilation is to accelerate and improve
the quantitative use of research and operational
satellite data in weather and climate prediction
models.
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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
(Goals)

• Reduce from two years to one year the average
  time for operational implementation of new
  satellite technology
• Increase use of current satellite data in Weather
  and Climate Forecast Systems
• Assess the impacts of satellite data on Weather
  and Climate predictions

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5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data
Over 10 Years
Daily Upper Air Observation Count
Satellite Instruments by Platform

NPOESS METEOP NOAA Windsat GOES DMSP
2002
Count
Count (Millions)
1990
2010
2000
1990
2010
2010-250ch
Year
Year
Year
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JCSDA Partners
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NCEP Operational Hurricane Forecast Improvements
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Future NCEP GAPP Project Dir.
Extend national LDAS demonstration to global
domain - collaboration 1 with NASA/GSFC
-- NASA executing a realtime global LDAS pilot
(0.25-deg) - collaboration 2 with USAF
(AFWA) -- AFWA executes an ops global LDAS
(AGRMET) -- AFWA recently implemented NCEP
NOAH LSM Propagate/unify NOAH LSM in all NCEP
global and regional, weather and climate
models Demonstrate impact of land-surface
initial conditions and physics on seasonal
climate predictability Demonstrate impact of
regional climate models on seasonal climate
predictability
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WRF Progress at NCEP

• Established parallel system to run NCAR Eulerian
  mass model with NCEP physics in identical 8 km
  HiResWindow configuration
• 4 large domain nests (Western,CentralEastern
  CONUS Alaska)
• 2 small domain nests (Hawaii and Puerto Rico)
• http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/

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Regional Analyses

• Create long-term set of consistent climate data
  on a regional scale on North American domain
• Use of the GR to drive the Regional Reanalysis
  (RR) system
• Superior to NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis (GR) due
  to
• use of a regional model (the Eta model)
• Advances in modeling and data assimilation since
  1995, especially
• Precipitation assimilation
• Direct assimilation of radiances
• Land-surface model updates

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Data Used in Global Reanalysis and Regional
Reanalysis
Dataset Details Source
Radiosondes Temperature, winds, moisture NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis (GR)
Dropsondes Same as above GR
Pibals Wind GR
Aircraft Temp. and wind GR
Surface Pressure GR
Cloud drift winds Geostationary satellite GR
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Data Added or Improved Upon for Regional
Reanalysis
Dataset Details Source
Precipitation CONUS (with PRISM), Mexico, Canada, CMAP over oceans NCEP/CPC
TOVS-1B radiances Winds, precipitable water over oceans NESDIS
Surface land Wind, moisture GR, TDL
COADS Ship and buoy data NCEP/EMC
Air Force Snow Snow depth COLA and NCEP/EMC
SST 1-degree Reynolds, with Great Lakes SSTs NCEP/EMC, GLERL
Sea and lake ice Contains data on Canadian lakes, Great Lakes NCEP/EMC, GLERL, Canadian Ice Center
Tropical cyclones Locations used for blocking of CMAP Precipitation Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Summary

• Transition of community research to operations at
  NCEP is accelerating
• Increasingly interdisciplinary and integrated
  forecast systems to support weather, water and
  S/I climate
• Advanced satellite data assimilation
• Increased emphasis on
• Ocean forecasting
• International collaborations