NOAAs National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database: Status Update

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NOAAs National Weather ServiceNational Digital
Forecast Database Status Update

• LeRoy Spayd
• Chief, Meteorological Services Division
• Unidata Policy Committee February 5-6, 2004

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National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
Accomplishments Since 9/11/03

• Establishment of Digital Services Program in
  Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
• NWS Instruction 10-506, Digital Data
  Products/Services Specification
• http//www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/010/010.htm
• Effective on January 2, 2004
• Update to Instruction 10-102 in draft form, New
  or Enhanced Products and Services
• Includes proposed criteria for implementation of
  new official NDFD products

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NWSI 10-506 Highlights

• Provides a framework for products and services
  generated from the digital forecast database
  prepared by the NWS
• Specifies definitions, collaboration thresholds,
  and minimum grid production times for digital
  forecast elements
• Establishes collaboration responsibilities to
  achieve forecast consistency
• Defines and describes the National Digital
  Forecast Database (NDFD)

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Draft NWSI 10-102 Highlights

• Proposed criteria for transition of products from
  internal to experimental and then to official
• Objective Quality Assessment
• Spatial consistency
• Inter element consistency
• Objective verification
• Operational Readiness
• Availability
• Timeliness
• Completeness
• Service product retention
• Continuity of operations

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NDFD Plans for Product Implementation

• Period of public comment on these elements ended
  December 2003
• Maximum Temperature
• Minimum Temperature
• Probability of Precipitation (12 hr forecast)
• Weather
• Wind speed and direction
• Significant wave height
• Public comments on NDFD graphics 95 positive
• Decision on implementation of these elements will
  be made by March 31, 2004

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NDFD Plans for Product Implementation (continued)

• Public comment period on these elements continues
  until March 2004
• Temperature
• Dewpoint
• Quantitative precipitation (QPF)
• Snow Amount
• Decision on implementation of these elements will
  be made by June 30, 2004
• Will continue this 3-6 month process with
  additional experimental NDFD elements

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NDFD Verification Activities

• Prototyping NDFD verification capabilities
• Comparison to point observations
• Metar
• Comparison to point based guidance
• Global Forecast System MOS
• Comparison to gridded analyses
• Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

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National Digital Forecast Database Point Based
Verification
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National Digital Forecast Database Point Based
Verification
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National Digital Forecast Database Gridded
Verification
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NDFD Verification Trend by Forecast Period
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NDFD Weather Elements Over Marine Zones

• Some parameters such as maximum temperature may
  not be required by mariners
• Complexity of preparation of products over marine
  zones -limited observational sites for validation
  of skill

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NDFD Issues of Concern to NWS Customers and
Partners

• Limited feedback from customers on use of gridded
  data
• Need for customer and partner feedback on
  requirements for criteria to make NDFD grids
  elements operational
• Gridded Elements over Marine Zones may have
  separate implementation time frames

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NWS Partner Comments for NDFDJanuary 2004

• Majority of respondents prefer
• Data formats in addition to GRIB 2
• XML
• netCDF
• Additional dissemination system
• NOAAs Operational Model Archive and Distribution
  System (NOMADS)
• Additional protocols
• Non-ftp access
• Open Source Project for a Network Data Access
  Protocol (OPeNDAP)
• Unanimous request for NDFD Verification
  Statistics to be made available on public web
  site