NOAAs National Weather Service

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Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Conference April
13-15, 2007
NOAAs National Weather ServicePueblo, Colorado
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The Answer is Yes
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Organization Structure
President of the United States
Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)
National Weather Service (NWS)
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 Although NOAA was formed in 1970, the agencies
that came together at that time are among the
oldest in the Federal Government. The agencies
included the United States Coast and Geodetic
Survey formed in 1807, the Weather Bureau formed
in 1870, and the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries
formed in 1871. Individually these organizations
were America's first physical science agency,
America's first agency dedicated specifically to
the atmospheric sciences, and America's first
conservation agency. Much of America's scientific
heritage resides in these agencies. They brought
their cultures of scientific accuracy and
precision, stewardship of resources, and
protection of life and property to the newly
formed agency.
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• NOAA is a federal agency focused on the
  understanding and protecting our oceans and
  atmosphere.
• A Supplier of environmental information and
  services that extend to weather, climate,
  ecosystems and commerce as well.
• A Provider of Environmental Stewardship Services.
• A Leader in Applied Scientific Research
• NOAAs Mission
• To understand and predict changes in the Earths
  environment and conserve and manage coastal and
  marine resources to meet our nations economic,
  social and environmental needs

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NWS History

• A federal agency that has been in existence since
  1870.
• The "original" NWS began under the direction of
  the Signal Corps until it was transferred to the
  Department of Agriculture in 1890. This was part
  of the "Organic Act" that defines the
  responsibilities of the agency.
• The Weather Bureau remained under the Department
  of Agriculture until 1940 when it was transferred
  to the Department of Commerce...where it remains
  today.
• Renamed the National Weather Service and, in
  1970, was placed under the newly created National
  Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
  which remains under the Department of Commerce.

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NWS Mission

• Protecting Lives and Property
• Serving Americas need for weather information
• Enhance the Nations Economy

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NWS Responsibilities

• The NWS is the sole United States OFFICIAL voice
  for issuing warnings during life-threatening
  weather situations.
• Provides weather, hydrologic, and climate
  forecasts and warnings for the United States to
  protect lives and property and enhance the
  national economy.
• NWS data and services form a national information
  database and infrastructure used by other
  governmental agencies, the private sector, the
  public, and the global community.

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Weather Forecast Offices

• Around-the-clock service for their areas of
  responsibility.
• This includes weather forecasts and warnings. The
  forecast areas typically consist of 20 to 50
  counties.
• Your local office forecasters are most familiar
  with your local area and weather nuances.
• The men and women that work at weather forecast
  offices issue and provide a myriad of products
  and services.
• These include routine weather forecasts,
  advisories, watches, and warnings.
• Aviation, Fire Weather, Hydrology, Search and
  Rescue, Incident Response, Damage Survey and
  Recovery

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National Centers

• The National Centers for Environmental Prediction
  (NCEP), is comprised of nine distinct Centers and
  is a critical national resource in national and
  global weather prediction providing a wide
  variety of national and international weather
  guidance products.

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Observing the AtmosphereSurface Observations -
Past

• In 1814 the US Surgeon General ordered surgeons
  to keep weather diaries. These are the first
  official weather observations in the U.S.
• Smithsonian recruits 500 volunteer weather
  observers to report via telegraph in 1860.
• Weather Bureau begins observations at Post
  Offices and other Federal Buildings in 1870
• Transitioned to Airport observations in the 1930s
  and 40s as air travel increased

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Observing the AtmosphereSurface Observations
-Today

• Most airport observations transitioned to
  automated sensors in the 1980s and 90s (ASOS).
• Widespread development of mesonetworks began in
  the 1990s (RAWS, Schoolnet, DOT AWOS, etc. )
• While human observers have been replaced at
  airports, 1000s of volunteer COOP observers still
  report weather every day

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Observing the AtmosphereSurface Observations -
Future

• Continued expansion of various, mainly non NWS
  mesonetworks
• Development of more portable/cheaper, disposable
  sensors
• Expansion of remote sensing
• Problems include bandwidth, siting, maintenance,
  calibration, etc.

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Observing the AtmosphereUpper Air Observations -
Past

• In 1898 the Weather Bureau begins regular kite
  observations for studying upper-air, last flight
  made in 1933.
• In 1909 balloon observations begin
• In 1931 regular 5 a.m. EST aircraft observations
  at Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas and Omaha, at
  altitudes reaching 16,000 feet begin. This
  program spells the demise of "kite stations."

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Observing the AtmosphereUpper Air Observations -
Past

• In 1933 First Weather Bureau balloon carried
  radio-meteorgraph, or radiosonde, sounding made
  at East Boston, Mass. Ends the era of manned
  aircraft soundings since balloons could be
  launched in virtually all weather conditions and
  could fly substantially higher than aircraft
• Automated radar tracking of weather balloons
  began in 1950s, eliminating time consuming manual
  tracking

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Observing the AtmosphereUpper Air Observations -
Present

• Roughly 1000 stations release radiosondes twice
  daily at 00z and 12z.
• Program underway to replace U.S. radiosondes
  (1950s tech) with GPS tracked balloons.

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Observing the AtmosphereUpper Air Observations -
Present

• Other sources of upper air data include
• ACARS data from commercial aircraft (4000
  aircraft/100,000 obs per day
• Wind Profilers vertically pointed doppler radar
  which measures winds speeds
• Satellite wind and temperature profiles also used

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Observing the AtmosphereUpper Air Observations -
Future

• Research into the use of umanned aerial vehicles
  (UAVs) for upper air observations is ongoing
  within NOAA.
• UAVs can loiter for 24 hours or more, at
  altitudes of 45000 feet
• UAVs can used for dull, dirty and dangerous
  work including fire perimeter monitoring, air
  sampling for smoke and hazardous materials
  releases and basic atmospheric observations
• Could be especially helpful over data
  sparse areas of the Northern Pacific
  
  
  

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Observing the AtmosphereRadar

• First widespread use of radar was for military
  applications during World War 2
• After the war, surplus military radars were given
  to the Weather Bureau for research purposes
• First dedicated weather radar, the WSR-57, began
  nationwide deployment in 1959
• Research into Doppler radar technology began in
  the 1960s at the National Severe Storms
  Laboratory in Norman Oklahoma

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Observing the AtmosphereRadar

• Doppler radar research continues at NSSL through
  the 1970s
• First networked operational Dopple radar
  (WSR-88D) developed in the 1980s, deployed
  throughout the nation in the 1990s
• Last WSR-57 radar replaced in 1999

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Observing the AtmosphereRadar

• Research is underway at the National Severe
  Storms Lab on the next generation of weather
  radar, using AEGIS phased array technology
  developed by the Navy
• Phased array radar has the potential to reduce
  radar volume scan time from 4-5 minutes to 20-30
  seconds
• Large improvement in tornado warning
  lead times is possible
• Deployment of Phased Array technology
  possible sometime
  after 2015

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Observing the AtmosphereSatellites

• Worlds first Meteorological Satellite was
  TIROS-1, launched on April 1, 1960
• First satellites were polar orbiting, passing
  over the same point on the Earth twice a day
• Geostationary satellites, which rotate at the
  same speed as the Earth and remain over the same
  point on the surface, were developed in the early
  1970s
• The first operational geostationary satellite was
  SMS-1, launched on May 17 1974.

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Observing the AtmosphereSatellites

• Currently 2 GOES geostationary satellites are in
  operation
• GOES-11 (135W) covers the western portion of
  North America and the eastern Pacific Ocean
• GOES-12 (75W) covers eastern North America and
  the Atlantic Ocean
• A spare GOES satellite is in on-orbit storage in
  case of failure of either primary satellites

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What do we do with all this Data?

• Data from around the world is collected by NCEP
  in Maryland, then fed into a supercomputer for
  analysis and modeling
• The NCEP supercomputer runs several weather
  forecast computer model programs to help us
  predict the weather in Colorado
• Can perform over 2 trillion calculations per
  second
• If you used a pocket calculator, it would take
  you 5,000 years to do the same number of
  calculations

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Forecasting Process

• National Centers (NCEP) and Model Guidance

• Event Driven
• Always current

High Resolution Grids

• Interactive
• Collaborative
• Information Oriented

Local Digital Forecast Database
National Centers
Field Offices
Collaborate
Data and Science Focus
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
National Digital Forecast Database
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Where Can I Find It?

• Weather Systems and National Data
• www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• Cold Fronts and Warm Fronts
• High and Low Pressure
• Jet stream
• Upper level Winds
• Day 1-7 Surface Maps
• Water Vapor Satellite Imagery
• adds.aviationweather.gov
• WFO Pueblo Graphical Forecast
• Weather.gov/pub click on Forecast/Graphical
• WFO Pueblo Activity Planner
• Weather.gov/pub click on Activity Planner
• WFO Pueblo Fire Weather Info
• Weather.gov/pub click on Fire Weather

Photo courtesy Pam Evenson
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• Prediction is very difficult, especially about
  the future.
  
  
  - Niels Bohr (Danish
  physicist, who worked on the Manhattan
  Project in World War 2

Email eric.petersen_at_noaa.gov