17 MOS Snowfall GuidanceObservations from Co-op Observer Network 18 Challenges of the Co-op Network
Some sites dont report snowfall amount
Some sites open (or close) during the sample period
Some sites move either horizontally or vertically during the sample period
Some sites report neither accurately nor reliably
19 More Challenges of the Co-op Network
Station Reporting Time
Sites report once in a 24-hr period
Reporting times are site-specific and are in local time
Other hydrological elements are sometimes reported separately
Reporting times change at some sites during the sample period
Arrive at one official reporting time per site
Discard any site with multiple reporting times or multiple locations
Two distinct windows 12Z 11 17Z 00Z 21 3Z Discard any site outside the two windows 21 MOS Thunderstorm Probabilities -Dealing with remote sensors 22 Creating Predictand EventsLightning strikes are summed over the appropriate time period and assigned to the center of appropriate grid boxes thunderstorm no thunderstorm 23 What is appropriate for thunderstorms
24 MOS Thunderstorm Probabilities -12-h period 40-km grid 25 Categorical Breakpoints Define the event Y 1 when 26 More Categorical Breakpoints
64 Grid Resolution Makes A Difference 21-24h forecast 40-km tstm prob. 21-24h forecast 20-km tstm prob. 65 Subjective Probabilities 66 Objective vs. Subjective PoP ForecastsCool Season(00/12Z cycles combined)
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