CeNCOOS Modeling Report

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CeNCOOS Modeling Report

• Francisco Chavez
• Senior Scientist
• Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI)
• MAST Workshop July 2008

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CeNCOOS domain and assets
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Vision

• None
• But evolving
• Multiple models/disciplines
• Should RCOOS run models or coordinate?
• Focus on model validation/product generation?

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Status

• Review of models
• Last proposal had 1 core atmospheric
  (COAMPS/NRL), 3 coupled (physics/NPZ) ocean
  (JPL/UCLA-ROMS, UCSC-ROMS, NRL-NCOM/HYCOM)
  
• Proposal funded at models cut, COAMPS supported from coordination
  grant
  

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Plans

• Organize modeling community regionally
• Define the role of CeNCOOS in regional modeling
• Seek funding
• Need for IOOS funding targeted at modeling and
  analysis?
  

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Model Portfolio

• Atmospheric (regional at 3 KM)
• Physical (basin-scale/global at increasing
  resolution, regional, local)
  
• Coupled NPZ
• Ecosystem (ATLANTIS)
• Sediment
• Wave
• Bay (San Francisco, Monterey, Humboldt, Morro)
• Other operational models (Coast Guard)

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COAMPS Real-Time Forecasts for Central Coast
Products for Atmospheric and Oceanic Forecasting
Real-time forecasts (48h) for July 2003-present
run by NRL at FNMOC Nested grids (81, 27, 9, 3 km
) Surface and BL fields saved every 1 h for ocean
model coupling Forcing for Real-Time Ocean Forec
asts (JPL ROMS, NRL-SSC NCOM) Real Time to NWS-Mo
nterey (AWIPS ingest) Forecaster Feedback
Support for Numerous Field Studies (AOSNII, ASAP,
AESOP, LOCO) Forecasts on the Web http//www.nr
lmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/mbay
http//cimt.ucsc.edu/ http//cimt.jpl.nasa.gov/
Overall, it was found that these forcing
(COAMPS) were of quality superior to anything we
had utilized before. Haley et al. (2007)
HOPS AOSN Team
Future Status Ported to New LNXI Cluster at FNMOC
Planned Upgrade (BL, clouds, Sep. 2007) Suppor
t for FY08 from CeNCOOS
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COAMPS-OS Coupled Model Initiative
COAMPS-On Scene Background
COAMPS-OS is a turnkey, globally relocatable
environmental data assimilation production server
Highly automated quick response time globally
relocatable Web-based configuration forward-depl
oyable or reach-back modes of operation
Ocean and atmosphere analyses, including
dedicated cloud and Doppler radar wind analyses
COAMPS mesoscale forecasts with full physics
Automatically transforms output into dynamic web
graphics and web-accessible data
Custom interfaces to provide data for HPAC (JEM),
AREPS and other applications Web-based Remote Mon
itor capability DOD, Federal agencies, NATO, univ
ersity and lab customers Operational since 1998 w
ith continuous product improvements through NRL
RD programs Sponsored by ONR, N84 (PMW 180 CNM
OC) and DTRA
Environmental battlespace characterization
reach-back strategy directly addresses CNMOC
Battlespace on Demand (BOND) requirements and
supports AMOP roadmap
COAMPS and COAMPS-OS are registered trademarks
of the Naval Research Laboratory.
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Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)
Contributionsto COCMP-CeNCOOS (NASA/JPL)

• 1.5-km ROMS centered around Monterey Bay (an
  extended ROMS domain covering the entire CeNCOOS
  domain is being developed)
  
• 3DVAR data assimilation scheme that is capable of
  assimilating all observational data including in
  situ (e.g., gliders) and remote sensing (e.g., HF
  radar, satellite) platforms
• ROMS nowcast and forecast system has been tested
  during one-month long field experiments (2003,
  2006), and can be run in real-time if funding
  becomes available in the future

15-km 5-km 1.5-km
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The UCSC Central California Coastal Circulation
Model

• Regional Ocean Modeling System
• Various domains for different applications
• Uses FWD ROMS, Adjoint ROMS, 4DVAR data
  assimilation
  
• Surface COAMPS (NRL-Monterey)
• Outer Grid Boundary Conditions ECCO-GODAE
  (MIT/JPL) or other GODAE products
  
• Capable of running 1999-present

Example ROMS grid domains (10-3-1-.4 km)
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MODELS
Real-Time Global Models 1/12-degree GLOBAL HYCO
M- Mercator Grid(bi-polar) (7Km)- 32 Layer
?/s/z (s2)- Expt 60.5 (O-M Smedstad)
1/8-degree GLOBAL NCOM- Curvilinear (12Km)- 4
1 Level s/z (19/21)- GLB8_2f (operational)
Regional Models California Current System (CCS)
30-50N, 116-134W 1/12-degree CCS HYCOM - 32
Layer ?/s/z (s2) Mercator grid (7km) 239x312
1/12-degree CCS NCOM 41 Level s/z
(19/21) Lat/Lon grid (9Km) 163x229
Coastal Model (NCOM) Monterey Bay (MB) 35.5-37
.5N, 121.5-123.5W 1-4Km Resolution - 29 s lev
els Orthogonal curvilineargrid 81x58 NCODA dat
a assimilation
Motivation Global-Coastal
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Physical-Biogeochemical Model Fei Chai
Air-Sea Exchange
Small Phytoplankton P1
Micro- Zooplankton Z1
Biological Uptake
Total CO2 TCO2
Grazing
NO3 Uptake
NH4 Uptake
Predation
Nitrate NO3
Excretion
Ammonium NH4
Meso- Zooplankton Z2
Fecal Pellet
Advection Mixing
N-Uptake
Fecal Pellet
Grazing
Lost
Silicate Si(OH)4
Detritus-N DN
Detritus-Si DSi
Si Uptake
Diatoms P2
Physical Model
Sinking
Sinking
Sinking
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The need to forecast
ROMS forecast w/o sfc current data
Persistence
ROMS forecast with sfc current data
Impact of Surface Current Data Assimilation on
Forecast
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Observing systems and sensors
Questions
Process Studies
Model organisms
Fundamental ecosystem rules
Models
Predictions
Modification (i.e.