EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE OF THE FUTURE: THE ROLE OF PLANT PROTECTION PRODUCTS (PPPs)

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EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE OF THE FUTURETHE ROLE
OFPLANT PROTECTION PRODUCTS (PPPs)

• Press Conference
• Brussels, October 9th 2008
• Stefano Baldi
• Researcher
• Agriculture and Food Unit Nomisma

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The evolution of the PPP regulation framework
effects on PPP availability
Already, 91/414/EEC has been reducing the number
of PPPs included in the positive list (20 of
1,061 active substances (ASs) evaluated were
approved, while 64 were excluded and 16 are
still pending)

• Proposal for New Regulation replacing Dir.
  91/414/EEC
• The proposal contains some conditions (cut-off
  criteria, comparative assessment, data
  protection) which could substantially reduce PPP
  availability
• According to the Pesticides Safety Directorate
  (UK) impact assessment, the reduction in
  available active substances (cut-off criteria
  candidates for substitution) could be
• 31 based on the Commission Proposal
• 82 based on the European Parliament Proposal

Source EU-DG Health and consumer protection
(Update 11/08/2008)
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 2
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The impacts of the new regulationcase studies
Reduced availability of PPPs in EU-27 could
generate impacts over long term (2020) New
regulation effects availability of new PPPs due
to RD activity of PPP Industry
yield reduction
Static evaluation
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The impacts of the new regulationEuropean
production trends
Present situation (2006)
293 Mil t.
179 Mil hlt.
64 Mil t.
135 Mil t.
Taking into account general economic trends, the
impact of the changing regulation framework could
contribute to production drops of between 30-25
in wheat and cereals, with an even higher
negative impact on potatoes (50), and around a
7 reduction in wine output
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The impacts of the new regulationEuropean
self-sufficiency trends
Present situation (2006)
119
102
105
104
Taking into account general economic trends, the
impact of the changing regulation framework could
contribute to a loss of self-sufficiency,
generating a dependence on foreign suppliers in
all case studies
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Reduction of EU-27 agricultural self-sufficiency
impacts on the European economic system
Reduced self-sufficiency in agriculture
generates negative effects on the Agri-food
sector and the overall economic system
Increasing deficit in agricultural trade
balance (20 1999/2006)
Safeguarding of European model Preservation of
income and employment in agri-food and related
sectors (retail trade, services, transport,
energy, machinery). Multifunctionality of
agriculture in rural areas

• Guarantees of food safety and quality
• High integration between agriculture and food
  industry
• Production model respects high hygienic, safety
  and quality standards
• Typical products
• Traceability

Loss of Competitiveness Food safety and quality
as main success factor of European food products
in internal and extraEU markets
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In this context,the European Agri-food sector
could face ...
Rising commodity and food prices
Jeopardises the availability of safe, high
quality, locally produced food
Loss of international competitiveness
Reduced world export share
Inability to take advantage of new market
opportunities
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 7
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Thank you for your attentionStefano
BaldiResearcher at NomismaAgriculture and
Food Unit
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Impacts of the new regulation frameworkthe
methodology
High variability of EU-27 agriculture
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World economic trendscould exacerbate these
developments

• Increasing world demand for commodities and food
• High growth in emerging economies (positive
  demographic and income trends) generates rising
  demand for food and, increasingly, for healthy
  and quality food
• Increasing non-food use of agricultural raw
  materials (biofuels)
• Growing competition
• Progressive trade liberalisation (WTO)
• New global players in food production and trade
  (lower labour cost and consequently lower prices
  than in Europe)

Possible market shocks in the future
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Main PPP links to the agri-food sectorand the
overall economic system
Technological inputs Fertilisers, Seeds, Plant
Protection Products, Veterinary products,
Machinery, etc.
Agri- food sector
Global challenges Market liberalisation
and competition, demographic changes, attention
to health and food quality, environment, bioenergy
Related sectors Retail trade, services to
companies, financial activities, transport,
energy, chemicals, machinery
Agriculture
Availability of Raw Materials (guarantees of
safety and quality)
Food Industry
Processed food (guarantees of safety and quality)
EU market High requirements for food safety and
quality (requested by citizens consumer policy)
Extra-EU market Growing demands for food safety
and quality (mature markets and emerging
economies)