Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Project

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Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Project

• Dr Miles Yarrington
• Project Leader
• Foresight, UK

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• Project Aims
• Trends and Drivers
• Scope proposals (coverage futures approach)
• Possible Science Reviews

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Foresight Programme

• Foresight projects explore opportunities and
  challenges for society and government from the
  current science base
• Produce challenging in-depth visions of the
  future to ensure effective and robust strategies
  now

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Intelligent Infrastructure Systems

• To explore how future science and technology may
  be applied over the next 50 years to the design
  and implementation of Intelligent Infrastructure
  Systems that are robust, sustainable and safe.
• The project will focus on the infrastructure
  employed in the movement of goods, people and
  information.
• Infrastructure includes any platform used in the
  delivery of shared services to people.
• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
• Are aware of their environment, responsive and
  adaptive.
• Collect and transmit relevant data to and from
  intelligent nodes to provide some or all of
  critical information to responsible operator(s)
  feedback that results in local automated
  response relevant useful information to users

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Proposed Dos Dont Dos

• Focus on transportation of goods and people
• Not focusing on how ST could support the
  delivery of future utilities or information
  infrastructure
• Examining information infrastructure and
  utilities only as key factor affecting the
  infrastructure used for the movement of goods and
  people

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Review of Other Futures Work

• This material is work in progress drawn from a
  review of existing strategies and futures
  exercises carried out on behalf of the project

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Future Trends

• General
• Future infrastructure investment US 32
  trillion
• Or, infrastructures progressively abolished
• Decentralised architecture in electricity
  generation.
• Increased congestion (rising cost)
• Modal integration and through ticketing.
• Journey or a travel slot

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Future Trends

• Technological (1)
• Proliferation of microprocessors, sensors and
  RFID tags.
• Union of human and machine
• Increased vehicle automation
• Driver aids/in-car information
• Highway intelligence.
• Vehicle-vehicle vehicle-infrastructure
  communication.
• Cars cleaner, greener and safer
• Car remain a personal box on four wheels

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Future Trends

• Technological (2)
• Power sources advances unlikely before 2015
• Fuel cells (Hydrogen) likely alternative
• Detection and location of pipes and cables
• Smart pipe technology.
• Smart housing and other digital technologies

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Future Trends

• ICT (1)
• ICT enable increased infrastructure capacity
• In 50 years ICT will change the way we do things.
  
• The internet will be very different.
• Data Explosion
• Increased automation

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Future Trends

• ICT (2)
• Increased computer system connectivity
• Changes in the nature of work and social life
• New critical infrastructures
• Societies ICT dependent
• Interdependence between infrastructures
• Security possibility of catastrophic failures.
• Computers that can speak, listen and understand

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Future Trends

• Energy
• Fossil fuels dominant for at least thirty to
  forty years.
• Global energy needs 60 higher in 2030
• Reserves of fossil fuels to last beyond 2050.
• Prospect of carbon capture and storage
  technologies
• 20-30 efficiency savings through superconductors
  etc
• But issue of climate change

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Summary of Key Drivers

• GDP growth/rising living standards
• linked to increased demand for transport/other
  infrastructures.
• Demographic change.
• Globalisation and urbanisation.
• Increase in computing power, bandwidths and data
  handling capabilities.
• Constraints on new infrastructure schemes
  funding, space, environmental and public
  pressures.
• Climate change reduced emissions.
• Key driver is efficiency

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Possible Key Study Areas.

• Infrastructure systems
• Integration
• Control systems
• ICT impact on control, management and
  integration.
• Resilience
• External threats.
• How to deal with the legacy of large-scale
  investment in non-intelligent infrastructure
  systems.
• What are the 3rd order effects of intelligent
  infrastructures?

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Outline Plans
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Review, Analysis Synthesis Process Output
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Intelligent Infrastructure Systems

Key factors
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Possible futures approach
City Rural Intercity
Scenario 1
Local
State of science reviews
Basic systems map
City Rural Intercity
Scenario 2
City Rural Intercity
Scenario 3
Regional
Analysis of drivers
City Rural Intercity
Scenario 4
Key messages
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Possible areas for state of science

• Sensors
• ICT infrastructure
• Complex adaptive infrastructure systems
• Materials
• Sustainable engineering
• Sustainable homes
• Modes of transport

• Design/co-evolution of complex systems (from ICT
  to location of infrastructure)
• Sociology
• Management of transport demand and supply
• Sustainability, Safety Robustness cost benefit
  analysis