Determinants Of Labour Market Conditions for Canadian Teachers

1
Determinants Of Labour Market Conditions for
Canadian Teachers

• Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC)
• Pan-Canadian Education Research Agenda (PCERA)
• Quebec, City
• May 22-23, 2001

2
Outline of Presentation

• The Canadian Occupational Projection System
  (COPS) Description, Mandate and Activities
• A Profile of the Teaching Occupations
• Key Economic Drivers and Their Implications for
  Labour Market Conditions of the Teaching
  Profession
• Summary of Current and Future Labour Market
  Issues

3
What is the Canadian Occupational Projection
System (COPS)?

• Formed in 1982 following the key recommendation
  of the Dodge Task Force on Labour Market
  Development.
• Federal/Provincial/Territorial Partnership
  working together to produce Labour Market
  Information.
• Family of national and provincial models,
  monitoring and research activities.

4
COPS Mandate

• Produce and disseminate timely, reliable,
  consistent and relevant current and
  forward-looking labour market information and
  research.
• Goal is to improve the transparency of the labour
  market (transitions) and thus improve the
  decision making process.
• Transitions from school to work
• Transitions from non-employed to employed
• Transitions from job (career) to job (career)

5
COPS Products and Activities

• Monitoring
• Provincial Monthly Labour Market Brief
• Quarterly Labour Market Review
• Forecasting
• Industry/Occupational Pressures
• Research and Analysis
• Impact of Ageing
• Determinants of Retirement
• Determinants to Education
• Economic Returns to Education
• Job Quality
• Occupational Monographs
• Impact of Technology on the Labour Market
• Model Development

6
COPS Products and Activities(continued)

• Labour Market Information
• Job Futures
• Youth Outlook
• Partnerships and Consultations
• F/P/T COPS Consultation Conferences
• Regional COPS Workshops
• F/P/T FLMM Participation

7
2000 Teacher Profile
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
8
Teaching Employment Levels
T h o u s a n d s
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
2000
9
Provincial Teacher Concentrations

Source 1996 Census
10
The Teaching Profession Has a Relatively High
Proportion of Women

Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
11
Women in Teaching by Province

Source 1996 Census of Canada
12
An Above Average Proportion of University
Teachers Work Part-Time

Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
2000
13
Part-Time Teaching Employment by Province

Source 1996 Census of Canada
14
On Average, Teachers are Older...
Average Age

42
41.8
40
38.2
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
2000
15
and Retire Earlier
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
16
Provincial Teaching Employment by Age

Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
2000
17
Key Drivers of Labour Market Conditions for
Teaching Occupations

• Demand
• slower population growth - downward pressures on
  elementary secondary and upward pressure on
  post-secondary.
• continued movement towards a knowledge based
  economy (KBE), upward pressures on
  post-secondary.
• ageing workforce, upward pressures mainly at
  post-secondary level.
• Specific provincial/field of study pressures (eg.
  Ontarios double cohort or shortage of computer
  science professors).

18
Key Drivers of Labour Market Conditions for
Teaching Occupations (Continued)

• Supply
• school leavers
• immigration
• Other Issues
• difficulty in attracting and retaining workers
• working conditions
• technology (eg. e-learning)

19
As a result of lower fertility rate population
growth will slowAverage Annual Rate of Growth

Source Statistics Canada, HRDC ARB/PMEDS
Projection
20
Relative Decline of Youth and Increase of Those
Age 65

Source Statistics Canada, HRDC, ARB/PMEDS
Projection
21
Demographic Trends Will Exert Downward Pressure
on the Employment of Elementary/Secondary Teachers
Historical and projected number of elementary /
secondary teachers and students
Elementary and Secondary Teachers (left axis)
Millions
Thousands
Number of teachers that would be required to
maintain the students/ teachers ration at its
1984-2000 average
Elementary and Secondary Students (right axis)
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
Educational Administrative data, COPS reference
2000 scenario
22
Movement Towards Knowledge Occupations Will
Continue(Average Annual Growth Rates)

Source COPS, 2001
23
The population is becoming more educated
Share of working-age population with a
post-secondary diploma

Historical
Projected
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
and Projections by Applied Research Branch
24
The number of trade and college teachers is
projected to continue to increase at a similar
pace to that observed in recent years.
Historical and projected number of college /
trade teachers and students
College and Trade Teachers (left axis)
Thousands
Thousands
Number of teachers that would be required to
maintain the students/ teachers ration at its
1984-2000 average
College and Trade Students (right axis)
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
Educational Administrative data, COPS reference
2000 scenario
25
The number of university teachers is projected to
increase after declining sharply in the late
1990s.
Historical and projected number of university
teachers and students
University Students (right axis)
Thousands
Thousands
Number of teachers that would be required to
maintain the students/ teachers ration at its
1984-2000 average
University Teachers (left axis)
Source Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey,
Educational Administrative data, COPS reference
2000 scenario
26
Average Annual New Job Creation
Source COPS National Model, Update 2000
27
Average Annual Retirements
Source COPS National Model, Update 2000
28
Average Annual Supply of School Leavers to the
Profession
Source COPS National Model, Update 2000
29
Average Annual Supply of Recent Immigrants to the
Profession
Source COPS National Model, Update 2000
30
Specific Issues

• In Ontario, in September 2003, there will be a
  double set of high school graduates seeking seats
  in Ontarios post-secondary institutions. This
  will put upward pressure on the demand for
  post-secondary teachers.
• Further, the May 2001 Ontario budget has proposed
  establishing a new university which will also put
  upward pressure on the demand for post-secondary
  teachers.
• Labour market conditions for specific field of
  study post-secondary teachers varies by
  discipline. For example, competition from the
  private sector is drawing current and potential
  teachers in the sciences, business and computer
  science from the education system.

31
Summary of Current and Future Pressures

• Demographic
• population age 5 to 18 is expected to grow
  marginally over the projection period which will
  dampen demand for elementary secondary school
  teachers. Alternatively, population age 19 to 29
  is expected to grow which should stimulate the
  demand for post-secondary school teachers.
• Retirements
• The education sector is older than most other
  occupations which coupled, with a lower
  retirement age, results in a large exodus from
  the profession.

32
Summary of Current and Future Pressures
(continued)

• Movement towards a KBE
• strongest employment growth over the projection
  period is anticipated in occupations generally
  requiring higher levels of education. This
  movement is expected to further increase the
  demand for post-secondary school teachers.
• Limits to Supply Growth
• difficulty in attracting and retaining teachers
• competition from private sector

33
Summary of Current and Future Pressures
(continued)

• Other Factors Influencing Labour Market
  Conditions
• working conditions are not seen as overly
  attractive although benefits and hours worked are
  felt to be a bonus
• technology
• distance learning
• emigration as a result of the global market place
• increased immigration increases the demand for
  ESL teachers