Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change

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Growing Cooler The Evidence on Urban Development
and Climate Change
Reid EwingNational Center for Smart
GrowthUniversity of Maryland
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The purpose of the session is to inform session
attendees of ways that planning (both land use
and transportation to perhaps a lesser extent)
plays a role in climate protection   Off the
cuff and not necessarily in this order, my sense
is that Reid could discuss measures in general
and provide estimates of their impacts
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Energy Bill CAFE -10 Fuel GHG by 2025
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VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings
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What Does This Have to Do with Development?
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U.S. Growth of Driving
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Growth of Urbanized Land vs. Population
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Main Questions Addressed

• What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is
  possible in the United States with compact
  development rather than continuing urban sprawl?
• What reduction in CO2 emissions will accompany
  such a reduction in VMT?
• What policy changes will be required to shift the
  dominant land development pattern from sprawl to
  compact development?

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We have been studying sprawl for a long time

• So when EPA asked these questions, we could draw
  on a lot of research

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Four Literatures Core of ULI Book

• Aggregate travel studies
• Disaggregate travel studies
• Regional simulation studies
• Project simulation studies

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Portland vs. Raleigh
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35 Less VMT with Compact Development
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Disaggregate Travel Studies
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Fairview Village (20 Lower)
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Southern Village (40 lower)
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Metro Square (50 lower)
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1/3 Reduction in VMT
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Regional Simulations
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Simulation Results
26 reduction in VMT by 2050 15 reduction in
CO2 by 2050
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Atlantic Station vs. Henry County
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1/3 Savings Due to Regional Accessibility
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Alternative Site Plan Comparison
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2 Savings Due to Site Design
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Thriving Community
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Actual Results Are Better

• 8 VMT per Day for Residents
• 11 VMT per Day for Employees

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Answer to 1st Question

• 20-40 VMT Reduction for Each Increment of
  Compact Development

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Doing the Math through 2050

• 60-90 Compact
• x
• 67 New Development
• x
• 30 VMT Reduction
• 12-18 Reduction in Metropolitan VMT

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VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings
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Add Smart Growth -15 VMT ? 2030 CO2 is 14 below
1990
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What Would It Take?

• What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2
  reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels?
  
• Will compact development with supportive
  transportation policies be enough?
• If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved
  through pricing, and what price changes would be
  required?

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Urban VMT Reduction
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Compact Development Transit Road
Pricing-Highway Expansion38 VMT reduction
by 2030