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Partnership for Sustainable Urban Transport in Asia: Indicators of Sustainable Transport

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Title: Partnership for Sustainable Urban Transport in Asia: Indicators of Sustainable Transport


1
Partnership for Sustainable Urban Transport in
AsiaIndicators of Sustainable Transport
Lee Schipper Director of Research EMBARQ
http//embarq.wri.org
2
Sustainable Urban Transport in Asia
  • Background - SIDA
  • Swedish International Development Authority asked
    ADB to carry out study of sustainable urban
    transport in Asian Cities
  • Background - ADB
  • ADB has been a leading actor in developing and
    funding transport project in Asia
  • ADB co-founded and supports the city-based Clean
    Air Initiative for Asian Cities
  • Background - EMBARQ
  • Founded by a grant from the Shell Foundation to
    World Resources Institute 2002
  • Leading NGO in developing and carrying out
    sustainable transport projects (Mexico City,
    Shanghai)
  • Invited by ADB (as partner) to carry out this
    project

All Partners Want The Project To Lead To Action
3
Partnership for Sustainable Urban Transport In
Asia
  • Scope
  • Transport and environment in Asian cities,
    focusing on strengthening sustainability of
    low-emissions transport and mobility in Asian
    cities..
  • Work with Pune (India), Xian (China), and Hanoi
    to engage key stakeholders and leaders
  • Goal
  • Contribute towards enhancing environmental
    sustainability of transport and mobility in Asian
    cities through developing and applying
    quantitative measures of sustainability and
    progress towards sustainability in a number of
    selected cities.
  • Purpose
  • Develop and discuss a conceptual approach of
    city-based sustainable transport planning
    relevant for Asia, by stimulating authorities to
    act!

4
OPERATIONAL GUIDELINEWHAT WE ARE DOING IN EACH
CITY?Starting with Policy Goals
  • Agree on a set of key indicators of sustainable
    urban transport that can guide policy planning,
    based on current and future strategies.
  • Map the gap of missing information and
    indicators.
  • Map how to close the gap.
  • Recommendations, including lessons re-learned
    from the development of indicators

5
Economic Expansion
Government
State government
Clean Air
Nice commutes
Civil Society
Business
National Government
New Business Opportunities
More rational development
PressureforTransformation
Changing World
Politics
Bi-laterals
Bus rapid transit
Clean diesel/CNG
Smart Cards
Bus, rail , metro skytrain
Two or four strokes?
SustainableDevelopment
Asian Cities Today
PSUTAs Job Develop indicators with city
authorities, who will chose options and act
Congestion
Air Pollution
Perilous Commutes
Little personal security and safety
6
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT GOAL IMPROVED QUALITY OF
LIFE

Vision of Sustainable Transport
TRANSPORT FOR ALL WITH NO COSTS LEFT FOR THE
FUTURE
Operationalize Sustainable Transport
Transport with minimal pollution, low accident
rates, With affordable, comfortable access to
all, supporting And supported by an economically
healthy transport industry. Must have/be
Balance equity clean robustrapid Operational
criteria Affordable, implementable, enforceable
Criteria
The Depths for specialists Raw data,
measurements, survey results
Road, rail, coastal/harbor, and NMT
infrastructure Distances and modal splits
speeds, congested roads Transport fares/costs
Safety measures and laws Details by city on
vehicles, air quality, emissions controls and
fuel quality
7
Vision of Sustainable Transport How can we
measure progress towards the vision?
Governance Sustainability Well functioning,
well-informed governance Stakeholders
welcome Clear rules respected by all
  • Economic sustainability
  • innovation and efficiency
  • Transportation industry is thriving economically,
    providing save, reliable, affordable service
  • Environmental sustainability health of future
    citizens
  • the Null Vision Transportation causes very few
    deaths through pollution or accidents
  • Social sustainability
  • equity
  • Transportation system open to all, serving all

8
Main Categories of Indicators
  • Policy Support Leaders Visions
  • Summarize key facts and trends or goals about
    transport and environmental sustainability,
  • Show rates of improvement (or worsening)
  • Appropriate for highest level policy makers
  • Predictive Provide tools for experts
  • Used to make policy indicators
  • Provide predictive or explanatory power for
    policy indicators
  • Used among experts or policy advisors
  • Background material Ingredients of other
    indicators
  • Raw data, measurements, survey results
  • Output of models
  • Used by experts to build predictive and policy
    indicators

9
Indicators Methodological Criteria
MEASURABILITY
FREQUENCY AND REPEATABILITY
ACCURACY
USEFUL INDICATORS
COMPARABILITY
TRANSPARENCY
10
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FROM INDICATORS TO
IMPLEMENTATION
6) Market and Communicate Publicized success and
admit failures, to build for a stronger round of
new policies and measures
1) Diagnose- Measure and analyze what is wrong
with the present transport system, and what is
worrisome about trends.

.
2) Choose and implement the Cure- Analyze costs,
benefits, time scales, stakeholder needs, risks
of strategies to improve transportation
5) Rebalance Apply remedial strategies where
original policies or technologies not likely to
achieve goals
STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT


4) Evaluate Compare new trends after policies
implement with prognoses
3) Prognose Develop baseline and alternatives
to illustrate impacts of strategies choosen

11
Indicators of Sustainable Transport Quantify
major externalities
  • Pollution/Air quality
  • Vision of no days exceeding health norms
  • Policy
  • Health risk/morbidity from pollution /exposure
  • Concentrations in air of mobile source pollution
  • Health costs/GDP
  • Emissions/km from vehicles
  • Current/proposed standards and policies
  • Predictive
  • Emissions coefficients and driving cycles
  • Number of vehicles and distance/vehicle
  • Verification
  • Socio-demographic and socio-economic variables
  • Congestion/Access
  • Vision of minimal time lost.
  • Policy
  • Time lost in traffic
  • Economic costs of congestion rel. to GDP
  • Proximity to rapid transport nodes
  • Predictive
  • Modal splits, distances
  • Road hierarchy
  • Non-road transport infrastructure (rail, etc.)
  • Lane or road-km per vehicle and per sq.km of city
    space
  • Number of light duty vehicles
  • Accidents/Safety
  • Zero fatality vision
  • Policy
  • Deaths or accidents per vehicle
  • Deaths or accidents per km driven or traveled
  • Accident Costs/GDP
  • Predictive
  • Engineering (seatbelts, safety devices, road
    barriers, etc)
  • Education (drier ed, drunken driving)
  • Enforcement (drunken driving, safety
    inspectionsspeed and other violations)

12
INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT CLEAN
ENVIRONMENT AND POLLUTION
  • Policy Indicators Highest Level
  • Reduction in overall pollution (index or days
    polluted)
  • Days exceeding WHO or local norm for ozone or PM
  • Economic and health costs of pollution
  • Expert Level NGO, Policy Advisor
  • Health/morbidity from air pollution
  • Ambient concentrations of pollutants relative to
    norms
  • Average, new vehicle, and proposed emission norms
    (gm/km)
  • Share of existing vehicles not meeting norms
    (smokers, etc.)
  • Predictive Specialists and Governance
  • Emissions factors and driving cycles by vehicle
    type
  • Number of light duty vehicles, distances driven
  • Verification/monitoring/enforcement requirements
  • Exposure of different sociodemo groups or geog.
    regions

13
Health Cost of Air Pollution

Money Health costs of Transport-related Air
pollution
Number of people with Respiratory disease
Medical and disability expenses
Days of hospitalization or home sick From
respiratory ailments
Public Health data on respiratory illnesses,
morbidity
Estimates of local exposure by activity (home, on
street Other activities, etc)
Local Results of Ambient Air Quality Model
Total GDP of region. Health Care expenditures
Wages and other measures of value of time
14
Example of Decision Pyramid Reducing Air
Pollution
Pressure to improve from NGOs
Mitigation Improved fuel Retrofit of
vehicles I/M and elimination of smokers
Decision tools -gt Policy options
Danger Signal to the Mayor?
Inputs to diagnosis
Pollutant by type, vehicle(?emissions/kmkilometer
s) for each vehicle type, fuel Ambient air
analysis
Measure, borrow, or guess each parameter?
Detailed Data survey of cars, driving, fuel use
and emissions coefficients, model of car fleet by
vintage, type, etc
15
Steps to More Accurate Inventories

Vehicles by type, fuel, age from reg.
Distance/vehicle from Lents-like
survey Emissions coefficients from limited
testing (Shanghai soon, few other 3rd World
Cities)
Accuracy
Vehicles by type, fuel from reg. data Assumed
distance/vehicle Default emissions
coefficients (Much of 3rd World)
,
Vehicles by type, fuel,,age, tech from large
vehicle use survey Distance/vehicle by type,
fuel, age from vehicle-use survey Emissions
coefficients from large-scale measurement
survey (Some OECD cities London?)
-
Existing Improved, maybe OK? Sufficient for
Action
Lents (UC Riverside) survey, or insurance or
police data using odometers readings from
collisions, infractions
16
Transport and Emissions in Bangalore WHEN DO WE
SEE ALL PSUTA CITIES?
For year 2000. Source Hans Oern, Contrans
17
ACCESS AND CONGESTION
  • Policy Indicators Highest Level
  • Proximity of homes and jobs to rapid transport
    nodes
  • Time lost in traffic per person
  • Economic costs of congestion rel. to GDP
  • Expert Level NGO, Policy Advisor
  • Modal splits by trips and distances covered
  • Travel times and speeds
  • Equality of access by age, income, ethnicity
  • Hot spots always congested, tailbacks, share of
    road congestedetc.
  • Predictive Specialists and Governance
  • Road hierarchy
  • Non-road transport infrastructure (rail, etc.)
  • Lane or road-km per vehicle and per sq.km of city
    space
  • Number of light duty vehicles
  • HOV, traffic direction, other anti-congestion
    laws and measures
  • Signs and maps for collective transport, roads,
    bikeways

18
ACCESS AND CONGESTION
  • Daily Distance Moved speeds lt 12 km/hr
  • Hanoi --
  • Pune --
  • Xian -- 7 km
  • Key Messages
  • All three cities slow and congested only
    getting worse
  • Dominance of two-wheelers in 2 cities, high
    population densities means high exposures to
    pollutants
  • Rapid improvements to public transport
    desperately needed BRT

19
ACCESS AND CONGESTION TALE OF THREE CITIES?
  • Daily Distance Moved speeds lt 12 km/hr
  • Hanoi 1.92 trips, 7.25 km/trip, 14 km/day
  • Pune -- 2.7 trips, 4.68 km/trip, 12.6 km/day
  • Xian -- 1.99 trips, 6 km/trip, 12 km/day
  • Bad congestion with only 50 personal vehicles
    (and almost no cars)
  • Key Messages
  • All three cities slow and congested only
    getting worse
  • Dominance of two-wheelers in 2 cities, high
    population densities means high exposures to
    pollutants
  • Rapid improvements to public transport
    desperately needed BRT

20
INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SAFETY AND
ACCIDENTS
  • Policy Indicators Highest Level
  • Reduction in accident/fatality rate (per veh or
    km)
  • Accidents and fatalities per veh. or per km.
  • Economic and health costs of accidents
  • Low or no crime in the transport system
  • Expert Level NGO, Policy Advisor
  • Accidents by modal status of victim (driver,
    passenger, walker)
  • Days lost from accidents
  • Accidents by cause (alcohol, speed, other
    infractions etc)
  • Safety requirements in vehicles, roads, walkways,
    etc.
  • Crime (robberies, assault, etc) on public or
    private transport
  • Predictive Specialists and Governance
  • Laws and enforcement for safety, drunk driving
  • Driver training and licensing requirements
  • Safety inspection requirements, enforcement
  • Safety signing, restraints, graded crossings,
    etc.
  • Law enforcement and security measures in
    transport system

21
PSUTA THE BEST FOOT FORWARD
  • COMPLETE CITY BASED WORK
  • Map the Gap
  • Identify experts to bridge the gap, cross the
    bridge
  • Outreach to other stakeholders
  • IDENTIFY COMMON PROBLEMS, SOLUTIONS
  • Develop strategic framework to scale up efforts
  • Bring in Asia-wide stakeholders (eg. Honda,
    Shell)
  • Scale up efforts
  • NEXT STEPS
  • Focus on 1 PSUTA City and engage
  • Develop generic indicators tool and package
  • Fill the Gap with good policies and technologies

Authorities Must Want Indicators as Tools EMBARQ
is a Partner but Basic Motivation Comes from the
City Partners themselves
22
By 2015 there will be 23 mega-cities, and nearly
300 cities in the developing world are already 1
million strong
  • Created at WRI by Shell Foundation
  • Mission is to work closely with
  • empowered forces in urban areas to
  • solve transport/environment problems
  • Working in Mexico City and Shanghai
  • Now in Xian , Pune and Hanoi
  • http//www.embarq.wri.org/en/index.htm
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