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Aviation and the environment: status and technological prospects

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Contrails and cirrus. Warm the earth probably more than CO2 ... Contrails/cirrus: avoidance largeley feazible. www.t-e.nu. The future perspective, noise & NOx ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Aviation and the environment: status and technological prospects


1
Aviation and the environmentstatus and
technological prospects
  • Jos Dings

30 November 2004
2
About TE
  • Members in
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Czech Slovak Rep
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

3
Economic benefits of air transport into
perspective
  • Contribution to EU economy (1998) approx. 1
  • Contribution to EU employment (1998) approx.
    0.2
  • Contribution to global warming (2000) ca 7
    according to latest insights
  • Contribution to noise nuisance
  • 15-20 (Germany 2002)

4
Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999)
140
  • 49 mW/m2 (3.5 of total)

120
100
80
contrails
O3-formation
60
Radiative forcing mW/m2
40
Methane reduction
20
0
Cirrus clouds
Total
CO2
-20
Including other effects water vapour directly,
soot, sulfate
5
Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003)
140
  • 116 mW/m2 (ca 7 of total)

120
100
80
O3-formation
60
Radiative forcing mW/m2
40
contrails
Methane reduction
20
0
Cirrus clouds
Total
CO2
-20
Including other effects water vapour directly,
soot, sulfate
6
Climate change baseline trends
  • Industry 70 improvement has been achieved per
    available seat kilometre .
  • yes, but compared with 1st generation jets
  • Meanwhile volume growth over 1000
  • 1994 B777 with GE90 engine
  • Since then no substantial further improvements

7
Overview fuel reduction technology
  • Engine
  • bleed air elimination
  • Pressure bypass ratios
  • High-speed propeller ?
  • Drag
  • Aircraft shape
  • Wingspan and wingtips
  • grooves, cleaning
  • Weight
  • Design
  • Materials composites e.g. GLARE

8
New projects
  • 2006 Airbus A380
  • Competes with Boeing 747-400
  • 555 till even 800 seats
  • Approx. 10 more fuel efficient, half the noise ?
  • Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions
  • Boeing 747A can compete (3.5 m, 35 pax, 7E7
    engine, decision 2005)
  • 2008 Boeing 7E7 Airbus 350 ?
  • Compete with A330, B757/767
  • 200-260 seats
  • Approx. 15 more fuel efficient ?
  • Airbus A330 light (7E7 engines) can compete
  • Airbus A350 not yet official

9
Boeing 7E7 Dreamliner 15 better than
competitors ?
10
Airbus A380 15 better than Boeing 747 Jumbo
Jet ?
11
Reactions to CO2 NOx charges in EU airspace
  • Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes
  • EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( approx.
    12 ct/l)
  • Revenue raising
  • Reduces CO2 NOx by approx. 9 10
  • Demand and supply impacts equal
  • Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget)
  • Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate)
  • Reduces CO2 NOx by approx. 5 6
  • Only supply-side effects
  • No revenues
  • Fleet renewal !!!!

12
Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses
13
Contrails and cirrus
  • Warm the earth probably more than CO2
  • Depend on ambient exhaust gas temperature
    humidity
  • New engines cause more !
  • Solution Air Traffic Management (EUROCONTROL !)
  • Military aircraft can avoid them for visibility
    reasons)

14
Alternative hydrogen ?
  • Makes water and NOx emissions probably worse
  • Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel
  • Hydrogen production ?
  • Many believe kerosene will be one of last oil
    products

15
Local air pollution
  • In particular NOx and PM
  • Problem NOx Modern engines less CO2, less PM,
    less HC, but more NOx !
  • Problem PM massive health issue

16
NOx reduction potential
  • Main approach improved combustion chamber
    technology
  • Staged combustion
  • Variable airflow inlets
  • More revolutionary most promising
  • Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP
  • Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL)
  • Reduction up to 90 claimed

17
NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards
  • NOx emission factor is growing, despite
    regulation

18
Noise lost opportunities
  • Chapter 4 in place in 2006
  • Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978 Chapter 3
    standards
  • 2001 gt 95 already complied
  • Best aircraft six times quieter than Ch.4
  • Airports now hold the key

19
Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!!
20
Trade-offs
  • Between CO2 and NOx
  • High pressure ratio engines
  • Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus
  • Low temp. exhaust gas -gt more contrails
  • Between CO2 and noise
  • Steep climb more fuel
  • In policy discussions
  • Favourite hobby of industry
  • Less serious than often thought
  • correct incentives ALL impacts needed

21
The future perspective, climate
  • Growth stays at 4-5/yr
  • Climate BaU
  • CO2 1 p.a. improvement, 3-4 growth
  • Contrails/cirrus gt 5 p.a. growth ?.
  • Climate technically feasible
  • CO2 improvement up to 2 p.a. ?
  • Contrails/cirrus avoidance largeley feazible

22
The future perspective, noise NOx
  • NOx
  • BaU no improvement, gt 5 p.a. growth ?
  • Incentives large improvements possible
  • Noise
  • BaU improvement smaller than growth
  • Incentives improvement feasible !
  • Co-ordinated efforts by airports (noise charges,
    noise ceilings)

23
www.t-e.nu
  • TE is Europes primary NGO campaigning on a
    Europe wide level for an environmentally
    responsible approach to transport. info_at_t-e.nu
  • Rue de la Pépinière 1 1000 Brussels
  • Tel. 32 2-502 99 09 Fax 32 2-502 99 08
    www.t-e.nu
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