Title: Transfers out of poverty: research insights, policy progress, and positive outcomes
1Transfers out of poverty research insights,
policy progress, and positive outcomes
- Jere R. Behrman
- 20 February 2007
- PORIA Case Studies
- Methods Planning Workshop
2Background
- Central objective Assuring Household Access to
Food From Subsidies toward Safety Nets and
Other Modern Instruments - IFPRIs early work on social protection paid
particular attention to considering ways of
reforming food subsidies
3- Over time, in part because of influence of
IFPRIs research, attention shifted to innovative
approaches for social protection. Two strands - understanding famines improving mechanisms to
mitigate droughts floods. - Evaluating effectiveness of programs such as
conditional cash transfers that sought to ensure
minimum levels of food consumption for poor while
also investing in human capital of subsequent
generations. - (Also, e.g., gender, household allocations,
insurance, employment programs)
4Output from the POR
- Books and Papers
- Workshops and Conferences
- Meetings, Presentations, Briefings
- Citations in ISI, Google Scholar
5Proposed impact assessment approach and
procedures
- Primarily focus on the demand for this type of
information of governments and NGOs. - Survey of policy makers in nations that have
modernized their safety-net to learn how they
acquired their guidance, sources of information
(including IFPRI), methods of analysis used in
interpreting the experience, etc., and then
documenting the proportion of budgets allocated
to such activities, and the oversight mechanisms
for ME.
6- 2. Identify and, where possible, quantify
influence by meta-analysis of evaluation
studies, - 3. identify and quantify impacts and, where
possible, a reasonable estimate of the dollar
value of impacts and costs of the POR
7Challenges 1.Survey Policy Makers
- How identify respondents, gain access? (Key
people may be very few, e.g., Mexico Levy,
Gomez-Leon, Zedillo, Fox) - How identify IFPRI impacts?
- More than some case studies? Resource costs?
82. Identify Influences
- Distinguish influence from impact
- Question of influence of what presumably IFPRI
input (and not, say, PROGRESA).
93. Impacts and Costs
- How measure impact (Not, e.g., some IR 8 variety
that can be traced) and how value? - How identify IFPRI contribution from that of
national (and other) partners? - How get resource costs for relevant venture?
10How Might Proceed?
- Case Study of IFPRI/PROGRESA (cherry not
limon). - Clearly international public good aspects
- Data, studies, inferences for other countries
- Direct references in interviews with national
policy makers and international policy advisors - Document as possible channels of possible
influence (citations in policy-oriented
organizations such as World Bank and IDB and in
academic venues, interviews)
11- Great challenge identifying IFPRI influence or
impact from that of PROGRESA itself. Possibly
desirable to undertake jointly with PROGRESA
(Oportunidades). - Very limited resources.
- Risk that seen as cherry already picked (e.g.,
Shoufias, Levy). - Other options for this case?
- Other cases? Limon?
12Impact of the In-Trust Agreements betweenFAO
the CGIAR centres on germplasm availabilityand
value
- Elisabetta Gotor
- Institutional Learning and Change Unit
- Bioversity International
- 20-21 February 2007
13Presentation Outline
- Historical Background
- Approach to the Study
- Procedure of the Study
- Counterfactual
- Accountability
- Methodology
- Alternatives
14Convention on Biological Diversity1992-Resolutio
n 3 of the Nairobi final Act
- Issue of Sovereign Right of Nations over Their
Genetic Resources
Is a Germplasm a private properties or a public
good ? WTO-TRIPS Art. 27.3(b) Members shall
provide for the protection of plant varieties
either by patents or by an effective sui generis
system or by any combination thereof. The
provisions of this subparagraph shall be reviewed
four years after the date of entry into force of
the WTO Agreement.
15Keystone International Dialogue
In-Trust Agreements - 1994
CGIAR
FAO
16SINGER System-wise Information Network for
Genetic resources
Genetic Resources Policy Committee of the CGIAR
SGRP System wide Genetic Resources Programme
17Approach to the Study
Starting Point
INPUTS
In Trust Agreements
OUTCOMES of the policy
OUTCOMES
18Procedure of the study
Identify Bioversity International role played
for the achievement of the In-Trust Agreement?
Main Objective
First Part
- How Ideas and positions evolve throughout the
policy - making process?
- What perspectives do key parties in the policy
making - process have on how the policy change was
achieved?
19Procedure of the study
Assess the impacts of the In Trust-Agreements
on conservation and access to germplasm
Main Objective
Second Part
Counterfactual What Would have occurred without
the In trust Agreement?
Without a regulation would donor countries
have continued to donate germplasm?
Without a regulation how host countries would
have considered the acquired germplasm?
Would the 2001 Treaty have came through?
20Procedure of the study
Estimate the value of the additional germplasm
conserved because of the policy
Main Objective
Third Part
Accountability What is the empirical evidence of
the In-Trust Agreement??
Assess the Actual Flows of germplasm
SINGER System-wise Information Network for
Genetic Resources
Estimate the additional amount of germplasm made
available or maintained by CGIAR genebanks
21Methodology to assess phase 2 and 3
- Two-step procedure
- Assess the impacts of the In Trust-Agreements on
conservation and access to germplasm - Hierarchical correlated count data model
- 2. Valuing its incremental impact on the overall
value of plant genetic resources because of
the policy in place - Conventional methodology Choices
22Step 1 Assess the impacts of the In
Trust-Agreements on conservation and access to
germplasm
Correlated Count Data Chib, S. and R.
WinkelmanMarkov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis
of Correlated Count Data. Journal of Business
and Economic Statistics19 (2001) 428-435
Panel count data Chib, S., E. Greenberg and
R. WinkelmanPosterior Simulation and Bayes
Factors in Panel Count Data Models Journal
of Econometrics86 (1998) 33-54
Hierarchical Model Lindley, D. V. M. and A. F.
M. SmithBayes Estimates for the Normal Linear
Model Journal of The Royal Statistical Society
Series B Methodological34 (1972) 1-41 Chib, S.
and E. GreenbergHierarchical Bayes Modeling
inPalgrave Dictionary in EconomicsSecond
Edition
23Fundamamental Observational Equation
Where i denotes a site j denotes a species k
denotes a time period y denotes accessions (or
distributions) thus Yijk denotes the number of
accessions (distributions) occurring at site i
for species j at time k
24Explainingyijk ?(xijk, zijk) uijk
- xijk denotes treatments at site i for species
j at time k - zijk denotes controls at site i for species j
at time k - uijk denotes errors at site i for species j
at time k
25Explainingyijk ?(xijk, zijk) uijk
- What do I mean by Treatments?
- Anything that caused accessions or distributions
to change in the time series at site i for
species j in a fundamental way - The main treatment of interest, the over-arching
concern and the hypothesized driver of difference
pre-and post enactment is the In-Trust
agreement - Ad hoc at present, but a binary treatment ( 0
before enactment, 1 post enactment) may suffice
26Explainingyijk ?(xijk, zijk) uijk
- What do I mean by Controls?
- Anything that neither caused accessions (or
distributions) to change in the time series at
site i for species j in a fundamental way but
may give rise to differences across sites and
across species. - Problematic If accessions are supply-driven we
need an in-depth analysis of research resources
devotes to species at sites and at times
complicated - Problematic If distributions are demand-driven
we need in-depth analysis if the
demand-structures at sites across species and
across time complicated
27Explainingyijk ?(xijk, zijk) uijk
- What do I mean by Errors?
- Anything that is unexplained by treatments or
controls across sites, species and time periods. - Correlations?
- Problematic Complicated by the site-species-time
hierarchy - Problematic Complicated by the fact that yijk
denotes a count - Correlations across time (same species and site)
- Correlations across sites (same species and
time) - Correlations across species (same site and time)
- Correlations in counts?
- Complicated
28Hierarchical Modelling A General Structure
?
?
?
29A General Structure
Overarching
?
?
?
Units
Sub-Units
Micro-Units
30Applied to Accessions and Distributions Impact
of the In-Trust Agreement
?
?
?
Across the sample
Across the sites
Across species
Across time periods
31Fundamental
- ?i is a random draw from ?(.?)
- ?ij is a random draw from ?(.?i)
- ?ijk is a random draw from ?(.?ij)
- where ?(.?) denotes a probability density
function conditioned by parameters ?
32Bayesians Like to Hierarchically Model
- How data are generated
- Added flexibility
- Versatility
- Choices available
33Fundamental
- The hierarchical ordering
- Hypothesized
- sites ?(.population)
- species ?(.sites)
- periods ?(.species)
Alternative Two periods ?(.population) sites
?(.periods) species ?(.sites)
Alternative One species ?(.population) sites
?(.species) periods ?(.species)
34Many alternative formulations
- Which model is best and how to measure best ?
- Gelfand, A. and A. F. M. Smith.
- Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating
Marginal Densities. Journal of the American
Statistical Association 85(1990)3972-985 - Chib, S.
- Marginal likelihood from the Gibbs
Output.Journal of the American Statistical
Association 90(1995)41313-21
35Posterior predictive distribution from the
correlated panel count model p(yy) The p for
an unobserved Sample y given the observed
sample y Embodies the sample that would have
existed had the agreement not been enacted
Posterior predictive distribution from the
correlated panel count model p(yy)
Posterior distribution from the correlated
panel count model p(?y)
36Second Step
- Use information in p(yy) to estimate value of
plant genetic resources because of the policy in
place - Conventional methodology Choices
37Alternatives
- Recent additions to the literature
- Standard total-factor productivity study
- Search studies
- Evenson, R. E. and Y. KislevA Stochastic Model
of Applied Research Journal of Political
Economy84 (1976) 265-281 - Koo, B., P. G. Pardey and B. D. Wright et
al.Saving Seeds The Economics of Conserving
Crop Genetic Resources Ex Situ in The Future
Harvest Centers of the CGIARCABI Publishing - Gollin, D., M. Smale and B. SkovmandSearching
an Ex Situ Collection of Genetic
Resources.American Journal of Agricultural
Economics82 (2000) 812-827(2004)
38Case 3 WorldFish
39Impact Assessment of Community Based Fisheries
Management(CBFM) in Bangladesh
Diemuth E. Pemsl
Presentation for SPIA POR IA Workshop20 21
February 2007, IFPRI Washington
40Project Background - Bangladesh
- Rich inland fishery resources (42 of total fish
production) - Fish most important animal protein
- 80 of rural households catch fish for
subsistence - Siltation and encroachment (resource degradation)
- Broadly two types of waterbodies
- - haor, baor, lakes and beels (revenue
oriented) ? Short-term lease, no incentive to
conserve, over extraction - - floodplains and rivers (open access, no
management) ? Commons dilemma persists
41- Two important elements of Community Based
Fisheries Management (CBFM) - Institutions
- a) Participatory, involves all
stakeholders - b) Linkages with local level government
- Fisheries Management
- a) Habitat restoration
- b) Conservation measures
42Description of the POR research
Research Phase
Dissemination Phase
43Outcomes of CBFM POR
- Developed and tested CBFM approaches (including 2
elements) - Increased awareness of wider public and
government bodies of need for improved
management of inland fisheries - General understanding of the CBFM concept by
decision makers e.g. DoF officers in charge - Informing decision makers for upcoming policy
changes - Foundation of 130 community based organizations
(CBO) and provided training/assistance in CBFM
and legal support
44Outcomes of CBFM POR (continued)
- Policy changes for 117 project water bodies
(transfer of use rights, reduction of lease fees
and abolition of taxes) - Conservation practices are being followed in
project water bodies, including establishment of
186 fish sanctuaries - Fish production in project water bodies increased
on average by 20 with no change in the control
sites over same period - Income from fish is up 21 for project
participants compared to 15 for fishers in
control sites - Fish abundance in project water bodies increased
at 17 per year with increasing trends in
biodiversity whereas control sites experienced
significant declines in fish abundance
45Methodological approaches for POR IA
Supply-led
Demand-led
- Inputs
- Outputs
-
- Dissemination
- and Uptake
- Influence
-
-
- Impact
Trace back to project outputs
Identify outputs first
Attribute impact
Start from specific recent policy change
46Impact pathway for CBFM research
Graph forthcoming
47CBFM impact categories
Direct impacts
- Productivity and sustainability of inland
fisheries - International public good (IPG) community based
management systems and habitat restoration
technology - Awareness of general public and policy makers
- Contribution to policy changes (and impact of
those)
Indirect impacts
- Subsequent changes in fish price?
- Others?
48Proposed IA methodology
How to assess/quantify?
Costs ? project docs, partner
estimates Outputs ? inventory of publications
by topic, others e.g. of people
trained Dissemination ? stakeholder surveys
awareness Uptake/Influence ? stakeholder
surveys adoption Impact ? sum up
assigning value counterfactual,
sustainability elicit share of WorldFish
49Indicators for impact of CBFM
- Farm-level
- Net income, consumption/nutrition changes?
- Inter and intra-household allocation of benefits
- Water body-level
- sustainability of fisheries
- total yield/capacity
- biodiversity
- CBOs
- social capital?
- Policy changes
- Role of CBFM work to influence policy
changes(based on feedback from decision makers,
partner NGOs, donors, other players working in
the field
50Methodological challenges for IA
- Counterfactual
- Control sites (with NGO activities beyond CBFM)
- Speeding up the process? (Who are) other players?
- Attribution
- (Who are) other players? WorldFish share on
influence?
- Sustainability
- Trial phase versus sustainable change/adoption?
- How sustainable are changes once project stops
51Methodological challenges for IA(continued)
- Evaluation and assessment of benefits
- Assessment/measurement of non-market
benefitsAdding up different types of non-market
benefits - Identify and measure direct and indirect effects
(e.g. increase in the fish catch vs changes in
fish prices and thus income changes?)
- Equity implications
- Value of benefits arising to different
stakeholders (different producers, consumers,
government)? Question of benefits for poor
versus non-(or less) poor
52Next steps for POR IA of CBFM
- What data are available/have been collected for
the CBFM project that can be used for POR IA? - What information is missing?
- Identify data that have to be collected
- Decide on methodologies
- Funds available from CBFM project?
- Allocate tasks for IA study
- Literature review of previous work (especially
with regard to policy changeand policy processes
in Bangladesh)
53Work plan and time line
- Final CBFM project workshop in Dhaka 6 7 March
2007 - Field visit to project sites
- Planning session and briefing with project
leader/staff - Develop detailed work plan and time line for POR
IA - Submit detailed work plan to SPIA by 15 March
2007
54Thank you
55 Policy Change in Dairy Marketing in Kenya and
East Africa Economic Impact and Pathways to
Influence from Research
PORIA Methods and Planning Workshop 20-21
February 2007, IFPRI HQ, Washington, DC
56Kenya Dairy Policy (written policy)
- Main Issues
- Outdated document, 1958 Kenya Dairy Act
- Protects interests of large scale settler dairy
producers -
- Criminalizes activities of small-scale production
and marketing - Ignores contribution of smallholder producers and
traders to economic development
57Activities of SDP (1997-2005)
- Low cost and appropriate technologies
-
- Training programs on safe milk handling
- Improve standards of milk processing in informal
standards - Provision of incentives for improved milk
handling -
- Supportive milk dealer certification system
58Milk Marketing Chain (Omore et al, 1999)
59Policy Change
- Behaviour changes among SSMVs, KDB agents, and
other milk handlers -
- Reduced transactions costs
- Bribes paid
- Milk lost/poured
- Milk cans confiscated
- Etc
60Impact Pathways
61Study Activities
- Qualitative study of impact pathways - activities
and processes leading to policy change in Kenya - Ex-post economic impact assessment using a
multi-market model -
62Methods Qualitative Assessment(Research and
Policy in Development (RAPID) Outcome Assessment
Framework)
- Episode studies of specific policy changes
- - Tracking back from policy changes to identify
key actors, events and influences, and assessing
their relative importance - Case study analysis of specific research projects
- Tracking forward from specific research and
related activities to assess their impact - Outcome mapping approaches
- Identifying changes in behaviour of key actors
and analysing what influenced these changes
63Methods Economic Impact Assessment
- Model Attributes
- 2 output markets (milk, maize)
- 4 input markets (fertilizer, labour, napier,
concentrates) - 1 proxy for non-food expenditures (housing
sector) - 3 Production systems (subsistence, major dairy
enterprises, limited dairy enterprises) - 4 household consumption groups (urban rich, urban
poor, rural rich, rural poor)
64Methods Economic Impact Assessment
- Data Requirement
- Food production by consumption group
- Food imports and exports
- Input use by production system
- Expenditure on consumption goods
- Value of per capita consumption
- Commodity prices
- Consumption data
- Household income
- Elasticities
- (output ss elasticities wrt input and output
prices, input dd elaticities wrt input and output
prices, income elasticities, etc) -
65Methods Economic Impact Assessment
- Specific policy evaluated ex-post
- Reduction in transactions costs resulting from
changes in the dairy policy - Policy variables monitored
- Consumer and producer prices
- Supply of commodities by production system
- Consumption levels by households
- Household income
66Potential Regional Impacts (Regional economic
impact assessment not promised to SPIA)
- ECAPAPA facilitation of learning of cross-border
lessons in the dairy sectors - Rationalization and harmonization of policies,
regulations and standards in the dairy industry - (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi)
67Assessing the Impact of CIFORs Influence on
Policy and Practice in the Pulp and Paper Sector
68Overview of the Research
- Study of the political economy of the
Indonesian pulp and paper sector - Basic problem massive investments in pulp
mills, but plantations not being developed as
fiber source - Reliance on conversion of natural forest for pulp
- Encouraged by subsidies, poor institutions and
information asymmetries.
69Identified causes of pulp overcapacity
- Subsidies
- Cheap wood (gt2 cubic meter in royalties)
- Reforestation Fund allocations
- Soft loans from State banks
- Poor regulations
- Related-party loans from conglomerate owned banks
- Use of conglomerates and shell companies
- Financial mark-up schemes
- Poor investor due diligence
- Little involvement of forestry experts
- Rarely use independent audits of forestry
operations - Export credit guarantees reduce risk to financial
institutions
70Context
- 15 billion of debt accrued by Asia Pulp and
Paper (APP) and Asia Pacific Resources
International Ltd (APRIL) - Study released on Bloomberg newswire in December
2000 as APP tried to renegotiate its debt - APP defaulted on 13.5 billion in March 2001
- 1.3 billion of Indonesian non performing loans
assumed by the Indonesian Bank Restructuring
Agency - Creditors made conditional agreements with APP on
other debts - Profits on Paper spurred high profile campaigns
by NGOs.
71Impact pathways
- NGOs
- Profits on Paper spurred high profile
campaigns by WWF, Friends of the Earth, the
Indonesian Environmental Forum and others. - Increased attention to effects of new mills
worldwide - Increased pressure for responsible investing
worldwide - Pressure for environmental provisions in debt
restructuring agreements for APP and APRIL - Continued reporting on operations
72Impact pathways
- Creditors
- Requested profits on paper directly
- Use in lawsuits
- Inserted environmental requirements (audits, etc)
in Master Restructuring Agreement for APP - Increased attention to environmental safeguards
- Increased attention to risk
- Other investors
- Increased attention to environmentally and
socially responsible investing - Increased attention to risk
- Potential motivation for formation of Equator
Principles
73Impact pathways
- APRIL and APRIL Improvements since study
- Environmental audits/reporting
- Tesso Nilo National Park (APRIL, 200k ha)
- Conservation set asides (400k ha)
- Committed to legal wood sourcing
- Certification (APRIL concession)
- Community programmes (APRIL)
- Proposed UFS pulp mill
- NGO lobbying led to non issuance of MIGA
political risk guarantees
74Improvements in Indonesian forestry regulations
- NGO campaigns led to boycotts of Indonesian pulp
- GoI aims to regain consumer confidence
- Ministerial Decree 101/Menhut-II/2004 on the
'acceleration of plantation development and pulp
and paper industry raw material supply - Now repeatedly presented by Ministry as a
requirement that all pulp must be harvested from
plantations by 2009 even though this is not what
the Decree states
75Global improvements in due diligence and
responsible investment practices
- NGO campaigns related to the APP/APRIL experience
may have influenced - the Equator Principles, which most of the largest
international banks now follow - policies and commitments concerning pulp-paper
and/or forestry investments by large financial
institutions - FLEGT action plan commitment to improve due
diligence for forestry investments by EC
financial institutions
76CIFOR pulp sector research
NGOs
Creditors
Other investors
World Bank
Gov Agencies
APRIL
APP
Equator Principles
FLEG initiative
Forestry Ministry
UFS
No mill
Fiber Sourcing Decree
Less corruption
More CSR
Changes in SFM
77Assessment methods
- Supply and demand led
- Supply led - document direct influence on
intermediate processes that are believed to drive
outcomes, so as to identify their counterfactual
course - Demand led - identify impact of intermediary
processes (that were influenced). - Put the two together to identify impact of
influence.
78Assessment methods
- Interviews with representatives of NGOs and
bilateral agencies that were actively involved - Changes to attention to the Indonesian pulp
sector - Changes to pulp fibre supply shortfalls
- Involvement in lobbying that led to the Equator
Principles - Origins of the FLEGT action plan and bilateral
UK-Indonesia MOU - CIFORs influence on campaigns and plausible
counterfactuals - Triangulation
- Changes in sustainability of APRIL and APP
practices - Perceptions of Ministerial Decree
101/Menhut-II/2004
79- Interviews with APP and APRIL creditor
representatives - Changes in awareness of fiber sourcing
- Influences for sustainability requirements of
debt restructuring agreements - CIFORs influence on subsequent changes and
plausible counterfactuals - Interviews with APRIL and APP managers
- Changes made to operations
- Role of creditor requirements and external
assessments mandated by creditors - Role of NGOs
- Perceptions of counterfactual without creditor
requirements scenarios
80- Interviews with MIGA and World Bank Indonesia
staff - Considerations regarding proposed United Fiber
Systems mill in Southern Kalimantan - Fiber supply appraisal
- Factors leading to political risk guarantee
decision - Role of NGOs
- Interviews with officials from Indonesian
Ministry of Forestry and Forest Council - Realized and anticipated effects of Ministerial
Decree 101/Menhut-II/2004 - Implementation and enforcement mechanisms
- Influences that led to Decree
- CIFORs influence on subsequent policy changes
and plausible counterfactuals
81- Interviews with headquarters International
Finance Corporation Staff - Current pulp and paper involvement
- Procedures for appraisal of pulp and paper
financing - Changes in appraisal procedures and investment
patterns - Influences on changes in investment procedures
and patterns - Role of CIFORs findings and plausible
counterfactuals - Telephone interviews with officials of banks that
adopt deforestation policies - Changes in investment patterns due to policy
- Specific examples of averted investments
- Influences on deforestation policy
- CIFOR attributable influence and plausible
counterfactuals
82Impact supplement
- Indonesian forester - interviews with other pulp
producers and provincial government officials - Expectations about Ministerial Decree
101/Menhut-II/2004 - Plantation development rates to date
- Anticipated plantation development
- Forest clearing rates over time
- Changes attributable to Ministerial Decree
- Depending on findings, use counterfactual for
Ministerial Decree to assess impact attributable
to CIFOR
83Methodological challenges
- Policy reform in the context of corruption and
deception - Differing presentations of Ministerial Decree
- Companies with histories of falsification
- Unstable context, reforms could be retracted
- Controversial research on a high stakes subject
neutrality difficult - Non-market benefits, valuation difficulties
84Methodological issues for discussion
- How to handle agencies for which influence
imposed costs? - APRIL
- APP
- MIGA
- Degree of confidentiality in interviews
- How to query about confidential decision
processes (e.g. WB Board deliberations) - Presentation of key informant responses
85- Economic Assessment of a Change in Chemical
Registration Policy due to IRRI Research on
Pesticide Use and Philippine Farmer Health
20-21 February 2007 IFPRI HQ Washington DC
86Aim
- The aim of this study is to measure the economic
benefits attributable to a change in pesticide
registration policy and assess what proportion of
the benefits policy change can be attributed to
IRRI research on pesticide use and Philippine
farmer health.
87Objectives
- Understand
- pest ecology and the relationship between pest
infestation and yield loss - farmer KAP in pest management
- pesticide market
- researchers, chemical companies and policy
makers perceptions of pest-related yield losses
and control methods. - Determine the degree of awareness of the research
among FPA and DoA. - Determine the degree to which this research
influenced the banning of category 1 chemicals. - Develop a plausible counterfactual scenario of
policy evolution in absence of the IRRI
pesticide-health research. - Measure the benefits under the counterfactual and
actual scenarios to quantify the magnitude and
distribution of these benefits.
88Research-gtpolicy change-gtimpact
Impact of pesticides on human health 1987
Other research C of M (1985) Dr Rola (1987) IRDC
Task Force to write new pesticide policies
Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority
IRDC Institutional Change
IPM research and results
Civil society / media
Department of Agriculture
Meetings Italy, Germany and Switzerland
Pesticide suppliers
Bureau of Agricultural Extension
Farmers
89Theoretical framework
- Expected utility function, EU(p, r),
incorporating health costs due to pesticide
exposure is specified as - EU(p, r) EU(py wx HC)
- where
- p profit
- r risk
- p output price
- y output, a random variable whose distribution
is conditionally defined on the input vector x - w vector of input prices
- x input vector
- HC health cost as a result of illness due to
pesticide exposure
90Health Cost Model
- Health costs are associated with total pesticide
use pesticide exposure pesticide hazard
category and other farmer characterisics. - ln HC f(LAGE, WTHT, DS, DD, LTD, LDI, LDH)
- where
- Ln HC log of health costs
- LAGE log of famers age
- WTHT farmer weight / height
- DS dummy for smoking
- DD dummy for alcohol
- LTD log of total dose of pesticides
- LDI log of dose of insecticides
- LDH log of dose of herbicides
91Counterfactual
- EU(p, r) wo90 - EU(p, r) w90
- and/or
- EU(p, r) wo07 - EU(p, r) w07
- need to determine
- Toxicity relationship between category 1-2 and
3-4 pesticides - Price relationship between category 1-2 and 3-4
pesticides - Efficacy relationship between category 1-2 and
3-4 pesticides
92Economic Surplus
- Expected change in production costs due to fall
in health costs k shift - Number of farmers affected adoption level
- Change in producer and consumer surplus total
benefits - Cost of projects plus other costs(?)
- Returns to POR benefits/costs
93Research-gtpolicy change-gtimpact attribution
IRRI Research
Other research Other information
Policy task force Partnerships
FPA Institutional arrangements
IRDC Institutional research
IPM Other information
Civil society / media Coercion
DoA Political change
Meetings Italy, Germany and Switzerland
Pesticide suppliers Competing interest
BAE Competing interest
Farmers Competing interest
94Data sources
- Project documents and outputs
- Literature review / databases
- other PORIA studies
- other relevant pesticide use/health studies
- pest ecology and the relationship between pest
infestation and yield loss (actual) - pesticide market
- number of farmers affected by policy change.
- Interviews with Dr Pingali, Dr Palis, Dr Rola, Mr
Max Obuson, Frank Conejo, FPA, and chemical
companies. - researchers, chemical companies and policy
makers perceptions of pest-related yield losses
and control methods - determine the degree to which this research
influenced the banning of category 1 chemicals. - Household surveys in the three locations
- input/output data
- farmer KAP in pest management
- farmer perceptions of changes in pest ecology and
optimal pest management practices - farmer information sources on best pest
management practices
95Timeline
- February initial meetings and questionnaire
design - March Literature review / databases.
- April June encoding, data analysis, meetings
with key players/policy makers - July August initial finings, draft report
- September November follow-up meetings, model
refinement - December Final report