Role of skills in the innovation process

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Mismatches in supply and demand for ST graduates
at the Ph.D. level in Canada Barney Laciak, NSERC
June 2002
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council
of Canada Conseil de recherches en sciences
naturelles et en génie du Canada
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Presentation Outline

• Canadas Innovation Strategy and National Goals
• The Demand for RD Personnel to 2010
• The Supply of HQP to 2010
• Oversupply or Shortage?
• Recent Developments

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Canadas Innovation Strategy Goal

• to become one of the worlds most innovative
  countries.
• Achieving Excellence Investing in People,
  Knowledge and Opportunity, Feb. 2002

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Goal
Canada must have one of the most innovative
economies in the world. A key element in getting
there is to ensure that our research and
development effort per capita is amongst the top
five countries in the world. Prime Minister Jean
Chrétien, Response to the Speech from the Throne,
January 31, 2001.
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Achieving Excellence

• ...we will need to at least double the number of
  research personnel in our current labour
  force...

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Demand for Doctoral Graduates in the NSE
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GERD Per Capita Population, 1999 or Latest Year
Available
Source OECD
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GERD Per Capita Population - Top 5 Countries,
Canada OECD Avg.
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Source OECD
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Projected Canadian RD Expenditures
Source NSERC estimate.
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RD by Performing Sector, 2010 vs. 2001
Source NSERC estimate.
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Doctoral Research Scientists and Engineers
Employed in the Natural Sciences Engineering by
Sector, 2001e
Total 24,300
Source Statistics Canada.
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Annual Demand for Doctoral Research Scientists
and Engineers by Sector, Sciences and
Engineering, 2002 to 2010
Total 21,900
Source NSERC estimate. Includes the health
sciences at the doctorate level.
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Supply of Doctoral Graduates in the NSE
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The Science and Engineering Supply Chain
Source Statistics Canada, NSERC estimates.
University degrees shown are in the sciences and
engineering.
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Canadian Student Opinion of Mathematics,
1995Percentage of Students Who Like Math
Source TIMSS 1995, International Association for
the Evaluation of Educational Achievement.
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Percent of Students Taught by Teachers Having
Mathematics/Science as the Major Area of Study in
Their BA, MA, or Teacher Training Program
Source TIMSS 1995, International Association for
the Evaluation of Educational Achievement.
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Earned Doctoral Degrees in the NSE Per 100,000
Population, 1997
Source NSF, OECD.
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HQP Supply
Internal Supply
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Canadian Population Projections by Age Index
2000 100
Source Statistics Canada
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Other Factors

• Knowledge economy occupations require more
  education.
• High school students want to go on to university
  in increasing numbers.
• More children have parents with university
  degrees.
• International trends, Canada will feel pressure
  to keep up.

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Canadian University Doctoral Degrees
GrantedSciences and Engineering and the Health
Sciences
NSE
Health Sciences
Source Statistics Canada prior to 1999, AUCC
projections 1999-2010.
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Participation Rates of 18-24 Year-Old Populations
by Gender Science and Engineering University
Education
Males
Females
Source Statistics Canada. Full-time enrolment at
bachelors level divided by population of 18-24
year olds.
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Female Enrolment1 in the Natural Sciences and
Engineering as a of Total NSE Enrolment
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1. Full-Time. Source Statistics Canada.
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Average Time to Complete Degree Canada - Class of
1995
Source Statistics Canada. Time to complete
degree once registered.
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Factors in Time to Completion
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Attrition Rates for Masters and Doctoral
Studies Canada 1985-88 Cohorts
Source Statistics Canada
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HQP Supply
Foreign Students
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Foreign Student Enrolment1 in the Natural
Sciences Engineering as a of Total NSE
Enrolment
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1. Full-Time. Source Statistics Canada.
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Foreign Student Doctoral Enrolment in the Natural
Sciences Engineering - Top 10 Source Countries
1998-99
Source Statistics Canada.
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Foreign Student Doctoral Enrolment in the Natural
Sciences Engineering by Region 1998-99
Total 2,335
Source Statistics Canada.
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Percentage of Foreign Students Who Become
Permanent Residents1978-94 Cohort
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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HQP Supply
Immigration
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Immigrants to Canada, Skilled Principal
Applicants Professional Occupations in Natural
and Applied Sciences1
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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Immigrants to Canada, Skilled Principal
Applicants Professional Occupations in Natural
and Applied Sciences1 by Level of Education
Bachelors
Masters
Doctorate
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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Immigrants to Canada, Skilled Principal
Applicants Professional Occupations in Natural
and Applied Sciences Doctoral Graduates
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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Immigrants to Canada, Skilled Principal
Applicants Professional Occupations in Natural
and Applied Sciences Doctoral Graduates - Top 10
Source Countries 2001
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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Immigrants to Canada, Skilled Principal
Applicants Professional Occupations in Natural
and Applied Sciences Doctoral Graduates by
Region 2001
Total 1,559
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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Immigrants to Canada University Professors and
Assistants - Skilled Principal Applicant Holding
a Ph.D.
Source Statistics compiled from data provided by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
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HQP Supply
Canadians Studying Abroad
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Doctoral Degrees Granted to Canadians Studying
AbroadSciences and Engineering
Source NSF, IIE, NSERC estimates.
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Percentage of Canadians Who Received their Ph.D.
in the U.S. in the NSE and Have Plans to Stay in
the U.S. After Graduation
Source NSF
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Supply/Demand Balance
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Supply/Demand Balance for Doctoral Research
Scientists and Engineers
Source NSERC estimates.
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Summary Potential shortage of qualified doctoral
graduates!
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Graduate Enrolment in the Sciences and
EngineeringAUCC Projections vs. Government 5
Goal
Balance missing for 5 growth.
AUCC Projections
Source AUCC, NSERC estimates.
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Recent Initiatives
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Recent Initiatives

• Universities in competition for doctoral students
• Large Canadian universities offer free tuition or
  guaranteed income (Toronto, British Columbia,
  Ottawa, Queens, Alberta, Western Ontario)

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Recent Initiatives

• Federal Government launches Canada Graduate
  Scholarships Program (2003)
• 2,000 Masters at 17,500 Cdn./yr for 1 yr.
• 2,000 Doctoral at 35,000 Cdn./yr for 3 yrs.
• 17,500 Cdn. 14,830 PPP, 35,000 Cdn.
  29,661 PPP

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Recent Initiatives

• Immigration rules enhanced for foreign students
  who earn their degree in Canada (2002)
• Additional points awarded
• Similar to Australian system

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Recent Initiatives

• More data collection Canada to launch Survey of
  Earned Doctorates (2003). Potentially work with
  NRC (U.S.) on doctoral assessment