Title: Climate Change Risk, Stress, and Adaptation Sammy Zahran, PhD Assistant Professor Colorado State Uni
1 Climate Change Risk Stress and AdaptationSammy Zahran PhDAssistant ProfessorColorado State University 2 Discussion Outline
Introduction and Problem Statement
The Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
Collective Action and Selective Incentives
Variable Operations and Data Sources
Logistic Regression and Scatter Plot
3 Climate Change Risks
Climate change risks are social economic and ecological.
Risks are distributed unevenly by geography.
Risks are selectively harmful to coastal maritime and low-lying island societies.
Risks are potentially beneficial.
Government willingness to participate in policy solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change risks may be explained by these geographic specific impacts.
4 Climate Planning Risks
Climate policies designed to stabilize CO2 emissions.
Climate policies distribute costs and benefits unevenly by geography.
The willingness of a government to support a climate policy solution may be partially determined by the relative distribution of costs and benefits that accompany policy action.
5 Local Climate Planning
100 U.S. localities joined the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign sponsored by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI).
ICLEI coordinates mitigation efforts of 700 municipalities globally.
Localities recognize climate change as a significant local concern and commit to reduction of local GHG emissions.
6 The Rationality on Non-Participation
Reducing local emissions will not fully insulate a locality from the adverse transboundary effects.
The costs of climate change mitigation may be greater than the expected benefits.
The collective benefits of climate protection are non-excludable.
No federal assistance for the implementation of climate change protection programs.
Why would a U.S. locality commit to the CCP campaign when there are strong incentives to do otherwise
7 Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
Estimated 78 percent of CO2 emissions from cities.
ICLEI Urban CO2 Reduction Project.
8 Collective Action and Selective Incentives
ICLEI has no regulatory authority.
Collective benefits are non-excludable.
CCP campaign more likely to succeed if localities accrue selective (excludable) benefits from participation.
A separate and selective incentive will stimulate a rational individual in a latent group to act in group-oriented ways.
Mancur Olson 1965
9 Place as a Source of Selective Incentives
Uneven geographic distribution of expected costs and benefits is the analytic pivot to predict variation in CCP campaign involvement.
Selective incentives to participate in the CCP campaign spring from two major sources
The extent to which a locality is vulnerable to the risks of climate change and variability.
The socioeconomic capacity of a locality to commit to emission reduction targets.
10 Climate Change Risk Incentives
Coastal proximity and water risk.
Expected temperature change.
Extreme weather events.
Constitute a localitys selective vulnerability to climate change.
All things held equal localities with higher vulnerability to the risks of climate change are significantly more likely to commit to the CCP campaign.
11 Socioeconomic Capacity Incentives
Carbon intensive activities and industries.
Political and civic composition.
All things held equal localities with higher socioeconomic capacity are significantly more likely to commit to the CCP campaign.
12 Dependent Variable
CCP Campaign Status
A locality receives a score of 1 if it has officially committed to the CCP campaign by council resolution and a score of 0 if not.
Overall 112 counties examined were party to the CCP campaign as of November 2005.
13 Localities Party to the Cities for Climate Protection Campaign 14 Independent Variable Measurement 15 Binary Logistic Regression Coefficients Estimating Odds of CCP Commitment 16 Spatial Distribution of Climate Change Risk at the County Scale 17 Spatial Distribution of Socioeconomic Capacity at the County Scale 18 Distribution of Climate Change Risk for Metropolitan Areas in the United States 19 Distribution of Climate Change Stress for Metropolitan Areas in the United States 20 Scatter Plot of Risk and Capacity by CCP Status High-High Low-Low Socioeconomic Capacity Dimension 21 Conclusion
Proximity to the coast expected temperature change and previous casualties from natural hazards such as floods and hurricanes are significant triggers for CCP involvement.
Higher risk selectively motivates participation in the CCP campaign.
CCP localities are responding to the threats of climate change.
Socioeconomic makeup is significant.
Recruitment options High-High as low hanging fruit.
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