Title: Climate Change Risk, Stress, and Adaptation Sammy Zahran, PhD Assistant Professor Colorado State Uni
1Climate Change Risk, Stress, and
AdaptationSammy Zahran, PhDAssistant
ProfessorColorado State University
2Discussion Outline
- Introduction and Problem Statement
- The Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
- Collective Action and Selective Incentives
- Variable Operations and Data Sources
- Logistic Regression and Scatter Plot
- Conclusion
3Climate Change Risks
- Climate change risks are social, economic, and
ecological. - Risks are distributed unevenly by geography.
- Risks are selectively harmful to coastal,
maritime and low-lying island societies. - Risks are potentially beneficial.
- Government willingness to participate in policy
solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change
risks may be explained by these geographic
specific impacts.
4Climate Planning Risks
- Climate policies designed to stabilize CO2
emissions. - Climate policies distribute costs and benefits
unevenly by geography. - The willingness of a government to support a
climate policy solution may be partially
determined by the relative distribution of costs
and benefits that accompany policy action.
5Local Climate Planning
- 100 U.S. localities joined the Cities for
Climate Protection (CCP) campaign sponsored by
the International Council for Local Environmental
Initiatives (ICLEI). - ICLEI coordinates mitigation efforts of 700
municipalities globally. - Localities recognize climate change as a
significant local concern, and commit to
reduction of local GHG emissions.
6The Rationality on Non-Participation
- Reducing local emissions will not fully insulate
a locality from the adverse transboundary
effects. - The costs of climate change mitigation may be
greater than the expected benefits. - The collective benefits of climate protection are
non-excludable. - No federal assistance for the implementation of
climate change protection programs. - Why would a U.S. locality commit to the CCP
campaign when there are strong incentives to do
otherwise?
7Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
- Estimated 78 percent of CO2 emissions from
cities. - Spiky world.
- ICLEI Urban CO2 Reduction Project.
- Toronto Target.
8Collective Action and Selective Incentives
- ICLEI has no regulatory authority.
- Collective benefits are non-excludable.
- CCP campaign more likely to succeed if localities
accrue selective (excludable) benefits from
participation. - A separate and selective incentive will stimulate
a rational individual in a latent group to act in
group-oriented ways. - Mancur Olson 1965
9Place as a Source of Selective Incentives
- Uneven geographic distribution of expected costs
and benefits is the analytic pivot to predict
variation in CCP campaign involvement. - Selective incentives to participate in the CCP
campaign spring from two major sources - The extent to which a locality is vulnerable to
the risks of climate change and variability. - The socioeconomic capacity of a locality to
commit to emission reduction targets.
10Climate Change Risk Incentives
- Coastal proximity and water risk.
- Expected temperature change.
- Extreme weather events.
- Constitute a localitys selective vulnerability
to climate change. -
- All things held equal, localities with higher
vulnerability to the risks of climate change are
significantly more likely to commit to the CCP
campaign.
11Socioeconomic Capacity Incentives
- Carbon intensive activities and industries.
- Political and civic composition.
- Environmental concern.
-
- All things held equal, localities with higher
socioeconomic capacity are significantly more
likely to commit to the CCP campaign.
12Dependent Variable
- CCP Campaign Status
- A locality receives a score of 1 if it has
officially committed to the CCP campaign by
council resolution and a score of 0 if not. - Overall, 112 counties examined were party to the
CCP campaign as of November 2005.
13Localities Party to the Cities for Climate
Protection Campaign
14Independent Variable Measurement
15Binary Logistic Regression Coefficients
Estimating Odds of CCP Commitment
16Spatial Distribution of Climate Change Risk at
the County Scale
17Spatial Distribution of Socioeconomic Capacity at
the County Scale
18Distribution of Climate Change Risk for
Metropolitan Areas in the United States
19Distribution of Climate Change Stress for
Metropolitan Areas in the United States
20Scatter Plot of Risk and Capacity by CCP Status
High-High
Low-Low
Socioeconomic Capacity Dimension
21Conclusion
- Proximity to the coast, expected temperature
change, and previous casualties from natural
hazards such as floods and hurricanes are
significant triggers for CCP involvement. - Higher risk selectively motivates participation
in the CCP campaign. - CCP localities are responding to the threats of
climate change. - Socioeconomic makeup is significant.
- Recruitment options High-High as low hanging
fruit.