Title: Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masoods section
1 Decision Analysis Case StudyFREEMARK ABBEY WINERYKhurram Masoods section HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao 2 Decision Basis
Probability of rain mold formation acidity sugar level wine price reputation value detector accuracy spores effectiveness immigration law
Mr. Jaegers Alternatives
Harvest now or later
Use detector or not
Buy spores or not
Sell in bottle or bulk
Mr. Jaegers Preferences
Prefers more money than less
Cares about reputation
Probability of rain mold formation acidity sugar level
3 Decision Diagram 4 Decision Tree 5 (No Transcript) 6 (No Transcript) 7 Delay the harvest and buy spores but at a probability of rain greater than 45 use the detector 8 Use the detector delay the harvest but if the probability of spores exceeds 85.6 do not buy the spores 9 Regardless of the probability of low acidity always use the detector harvest later and buy spores. No turning point! 10 Regardless of sugar probability always use the detector delay harvest and buy spores. No turning point! 11 Regardless of immigration probability always use the detector delay the harvest and buy the spores. No turning point! 12 Value of the superDoppler (Perfect Information)
The value of the detector is
6874.64 thus it is worth anything up until this point
13 Value of Mr. Borzs Spores (Control)
The value of the spores is
22400.93 thus it is worth anything up until this point
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