Title: Hybrid Propellant Module HPM Commercialization Study Final FY01 Presentation November 6, 2001
1Hybrid Propellant Module (HPM) Commercialization
StudyFinal FY01 PresentationNovember 6, 2001
- Doug Blue
- (714) 896-3728
- Dave Carey
- (714) 896-3186
- Rudy Saucillo
- (757) 864-7224
2Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Projected Satellites/Constellations
- HPM Performance Analyses
- Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) Support
- Geostationary Orbit (GEO) Support
- Integrated HPM Traffic Model
- HPM Economic Viability Analysis
- Operations and Technology Assessment
- Summary
3Introduction
4HPM Commercialization Study Overview
- Objective
- Assess the HPMs potential applicability and
benefits for Earths Neighborhood commercial and
military space missions in the 2015 timeframe - Determine common technology development areas
important to commercial/military/HPM systems
- Goals
- Determine key areas of need for projected
commercial/military missions that HPM may support
(e.g., deployment, refueling/servicing,
retrieval/disposal) - Quantify the levels of potential HPM commercial
utilization and develop ROM estimates for the
resulting economic impacts - Determine common technology development areas to
leverage NASA research spinoffs/technology
transfers and identify potential cost savings
initiatives - Study Drivers
- Projected commercial/military satellite market
- HPM design (sizing, performance)
- HPM allocation to support identified markets (HPM
traffic models) - ETO transportation costs (trades vs. non-HPM
architectures, cost of HPM resupply propellant)
5Key Assumptions
- Commercial scenarios utilize HPM modules as
defined for Exploration missionsusing
performance masses - A low cost Earth-to-LEO transportation capability
is required
- Low cost, high reliability RLV or ELV for
satellite launch (sensitive, expensive cargo),
and possibly a - Low cost, potentially lower reliability ELV for
launch of HPM resupply propellant (insensitive
cargo) - Cost per kg goals are assessed as part of the HPM
Economic Viability Analysis - Industry adopts common infrastructure - attach
fittings, refueling ports, plug-and-play
avionics, other required I/Fs - Goal is to maximize potential HPM commercial
opportunities (i.e., greatest number of
satellites deployed/serviced with minimum number
of required HPMs)
6HPM Commercialization StudyMethodology
7References for Commercial Satellite Traffic
Models and Military Analogs
- Futron Corporation. Trends in Space Commerce
March 2001. - Provides trends for major space industry segments
through 2020 - Based on survey polls of 700 global aerospace
companies - Federal Aviation Administration. 2001
Commercial Space Transportation Projections for
Non-geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) May 2001.
referred to as the Comstac Study - Projects launch demand for commercial space
systems through 2010 - Based on survey of 90 industry organizations
- Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
(CSBA). The Military Use of Space A Diagnostic
Assessment February 2001. - Assessment of the evolving capabilities of
nations and other actors to exploit near-Earth
space for military purposes over the next 20-25
years. - Based on interviews with key military personnel
and web site research - Review of numerous Web sites
- Provided satellite constellation detail
8Additional References
- AIAA International Reference Guide to Space
Launch Systems 1999. - Information on current launch costs
- Research and Development in CONUS Labs (RaDiCL)
Data Base 1999. - Military laboratory technology initiatives
- NASA Technology Inventory Data Base 2001.
- NASA funded technology activities
- Technology Planning Briefing, Boeing Space and
Communications, June 2001. - Summary of Boeings IRAD programs to enable
technologies - Interviews with Boeing personnel
- Orbital Express Program (DARPA) to identify
additional military analogs - 3rd Generation RLV Enterprise use of HPM or
similar element in overall transportation
architecture
9Projected Satellites/Constellations
10Commercial Satellite Market Trends -Futron Study
11Commercial Satellite Market Trends -Comstac
Study
12Satellite Market Forecast
- Commercial
- NGSO market estimates fluctuating, trends
volatile - GEO launch demand fairly constant ( gt30/year)
- Spacecraft mass growth continues - especially
heavies ( gt5,445 kg) - Spacecraft trend toward electric propulsion
- Commercial launch demand trends
- Consolidation of spacecraft manufacturers/owners
- Increasing on-orbit lifetime
- Business conservatism for financing projects
- Military
- Military applications difficult to identify
programs under definition - Trend toward greater value and functionality per
satellite unit mass initial picosatellite
experiments have been completed - AF Science Advisory Board distributed
constellations of smaller satellites offer better
prospects for global, real-time coverage and
advantages in scaling, performance, cost, and
survivability - Potential for very large antenna arrays for
optical and radio-frequency imaging utilizing
advanced structures and materials technologies
13Current NGSO Commercial Constellation Summary
14Current NGSO Military Constellation Summary
- Commercial/Military parameter summary
- Total constellation count 39
- Altitude range gt 556 to 2,800 km
- Except for GPS (20,200 km), New ICO (10,390 km),
Rostelesat (10,360 km), 3 elliptical
constellations - Inclination range gt 45 to 117 degrees
- Except for ECCO, ECO-8, and Ellipso (part) all at
0 degrees - Orbit planes gt 1 to 8
- Data available for 27 constellations for HPM
traffic model analysis
15Current Distribution of GEO Satellites
- Satellite count 279
- Co-located satellites offset by 2 degree
latitude increments for display - Source data www.lyngsat.com
16HPM Commercial SatelliteDeploy Scenario
Satellite Operational Orbit (or Geostationary
Transfer Orbit)
(3) HPM/CTM perform rendezvous/docking and
maneuver to satellite operational orbit
400 KM HPM Parking Orbit
(4) HPM/CTM deploy satellite in operational orbit
and return to parking orbit
(1) ELV launches HPM resupply propellant HPM/CTM
perform rendezvous/dock and refueling operations
(2) RLV launches and deploys one or more
satellites to LEO
(5) HPM/CTM complete maneuver to parking orbit
17HPM Commercial SatelliteServicing/Refueling
Scenario
Satellite Operational Orbit
(3) HPM/CTM perform LEO rendezvous/docking and
maneuver to satellite operational orbit
400 KM HPM Parking Orbit
(4) HPM/CTM refuel and/or refurbish satellite and
return to parking orbit
(1) ELV launches HPM resupply propellant HPM/CTM
perform rendezvous/dock and refueling operations
(2) RLV or ELV launches and deploys to LEO
satellite propellant and/or refurbish components
(5) HPM/CTM complete maneuver to parking orbit
18HPM Military Applications
- HPM could provide next generation, follow-on
capabilities (transportation) initially provided
by the DARPA Orbital Express Space Operations
Architecture Program - Orbital Express will develop and demonstrate
robotic techniques for satellite - Preplanned electronics upgrade
- Refueling
- Repositioning
- Reconfiguration
- OE potentially may support a broad range of
future US national security and commercial space
programs - Mission enabling
- Cost reduction through spacecraft life extension
- OE incorporates industry standard
non-proprietary satellite-to-satellite electrical
and mechanical interfaces - Demonstration of Orbital Express spacecraft
planned for launch in CY2004
19HPM Performance Analyses
20HPM Block II Payload/Velocity Speed
Curves (Utilizing a Single HPM Per Mission)
21HPM Block II Performance Capability vs.
Representative Spacecraft
22HPM Block II Initial Performance Assessment
- GEO deploy/servicing missions
- GEO direct deployment/servicing using chemical
propulsion is not feasible - HPM Block II no payload capability is about 3/4
of the round trip DV requirement of 4,195 mps - GTO deployment missions (DV 2,407 mps) using
chemical propulsion appear feasible for
satellites up to 19,000 kg - GEO direct deployment/servicing from equatorial
launch site and using electric propulsion is
possible although potentially not operationally
viable - Equatorial launch site is required since orbit
plane changes are very difficult using SEP - SEP usage increases trip time significantly
results in reduced mission rate - Frequent SEP engine and PV cell refurbishment is
costly - NGSO servicing missions
- Considerable payload margin exists for LEO
satellite direct deployment/servicing - MEO/HEO direct deployment/servicing using
chemical propulsion is not feasible (e.g., GPS DV
3,400 mps) - MEO/HEO deployment is feasible with chemical
propulsion via transfer orbit only
23Satellite Orbit Transfer Definitions
24Analysis Assumptions
- Market
- Future NGSO constellations will exist in similar
orbits as recently envisioned - Launch Vehicle
- Delivers payloads to 400 km circular parking
orbits at inclination (inc) and right ascension
(RA) of stored HPM closest to final orbit - HPM
- HPM chemical engine applies DV impulsively at
locally optimal orbit locations - Perigee and Apogee (i.e., Hohmann transfers) for
altitude variation - Node crossings for inclination changes
- Nodal complement locations for right ascension
changes - A propellant reserve provides 150 mps velocity
reserve for maneuvers (e.g., rendezvous,
proximity operations and docking, reboost in
storage orbits, etc) - SEP
- Not considered in analyses due to mission
duration impact and refurbishment costs - CTM
- Propellant is available to autonomously
pre-position to HPM rendezvous point as necessary - Satellite
- Satellite battery life available for 2 days
autonomous operation between LEO delivery and HPM
docking and mission completion - Boeing
Satellite Systems concurs
25HPM Performance Analyses Non-Geostationary
Orbit (NGSO) Support
26NGSO Constellation Orbital Distribution
27HPM Capability Analysis
28NGSO Analysis Worst Case Results
29NGSO Analysis Best Case Results
30Additional Block I NGSO Analysis
Modifications/additions needed to HPM Block I
constellations to provide the same coverage as
higher performing Block II HPM constellations
31NGSO Analysis Differential RA Summary -
Commercial Constellations
Indicates most applicable HPM deploy/servicing
constellation
32NGSO Analysis Differential RA Summary - Military
Constellations
33NGSO Mission Launch Opportunities vs HPM Plane
Count (Block II)
34NGSO Mission Launch Opportunities vs HPM Plane
Count (Block II)
35NGSO Average Mission Phase Time (Block II)
36NGSO Traffic Model Conclusions (Block II)
- HPM Constellation Allocation
- Most of the current suite of commercial/military
constellations are deployable/serviceable using
HPM/CTM Block II - Requires one constellation of 8 HPM/CTMs near
ISS inclination - Requires one constellation of 10 HPM/CTMs near
polar inclination - Planar launch window opportunities within 30
days - Near ISS constellations better accessed from 54
deg vs 51.6 deg inclination parking orbit - Near Polar constellations equally accessible from
inclinations between 90 and 98 deg parking orbits - Equatorial constellations may be accessed by
equatorially based HPM/CTMs for GEO missions - HPM Block II Nominal Traffic Model for 18 total
HPM/CTMs
- For GPS deploy/servicing, single HPM/CTM can
deliver GPS to transfer orbit only (400 x 20,200
km _at_ i55o) - Full GPS analysis included as part of GEO
Support section
37NGSO Traffic Model Conclusions (Block I)
- HPM Constellation Allocation
- Most of the current suite of commercial/military
constellations are deployable/serviceable using
HPM/CTM Block I - Requires one constellation of 10 HPM/CTMs near
ISS inclination (inc 51 deg) - Requires one constellation of 4 HPM/CTMs for mid
inclinations (inc 59 deg) - Requires one constellation of 10 HPM/CTMs near
polar inclination (inc 90.3 deg) - Planar launch window opportunities within 30
days - Equatorial constellations may be
deployed/serviced by equatorially based HPM/CTMs
for GEO missions - HPM Block II Nominal Traffic Model for 24 total
HPM/CTMs
- For GPS deploy/servicing - single HPM/CTM can
deliver GPS to transfer orbit only (400 x 20,200
km _at_ i55o) - Full GPS analysis included as part of GEO
Support section
38HPM Performance Analyses Geostationary Orbit
(GEO) Support
39GEO/GPS Performance Analysis - Block I and II
Definitions
- Single HPM/CTM
- Paired Two fully loaded HPM/CTM, outbound
separately, one with payload / one without,
returning together using total remaining
propellant
- Tandem Multiple HPMs (up to 4) with one CTM
docked end to end with propellant flow-through
from one HPM to the next one in stack
- Paired/Tandem Two sets of two tandem HPMs, each
with a single CTM operating as defined above for
Paired -
-
Assumptions
- Same as defined for NGSO analysis, plus
- Tandem HPM dry weights increased by 10 to
account for flow-through propellant feed system -
40GEO/GPS Performance Summary
41GEO/GPS Operational Conclusions
- Performance
- Single Block I or Block II vehicles are only
capable of performing GTO and GPS transfer
missions - None of the configurations studied can deliver
payloads to GEO from 28 deg - Only Block II tandem configurations have useful
payload capability for either GEO (equatorial
launch) or GPS (51.6 deg launch) missions - The use of 3 or more HPMs in tandem (required for
equatorial GEO) should be considered
operationally problematical at best - Tandem configurations out perform Paired
configurations, for equal numbers of HPMs - The currently envisioned HPM configurations are
undersized propellant-wise for GEO missions and
also suffer from the extra dry weight associated
with SEP accommodations - Traffic Model
- Two Block I or II HPM/CTMs delivering up to 15
payloads/year to GTO cover the forecasted 30 GEO
payloads per year - GPS transfer orbit traffic is included in the
NGSO traffic model
42Integrated HPM Traffic Model
43HPM/CTM Integrated Traffic Model (Block II)
- NGSO Near ISS Constellation Support - 8 HPM/CTMs
- Average mission rate of 1 every 11 days lt one
per 12.2 weeks for each HPM/CTM (4 per
year/HPM) - Planar launch windows every 4.5 days (average)
for nodal alignment (Does not impact mission
rate) - Launches from Eastern Test Range
- NGSO Near Polar Constellation Support - 10
HPM/CTMs - Average mission rate of 1 every 11 days lt one
per 16.3 weeks for each HPM/CTM (3 per year/HPM) - Planar launch windows every 8.4 days (average)
for nodal alignment (Does not impact mission
rate) - Launches from Vandenburg Air Force Base
- GEO Constellation Support - 2 HPM/CTMs
- Average mission rate of 1 every 12 days lt 15
per year for each HPM/CTM - Launch on demand from Eastern Test Range
- NASA Exploration (Lunar Gateway) Support 7 HPMs
- 7 HPMs, 6 SEP Stages, 1-2 CTMs and CTVs
- 1 lunar excursion every 6 months
- Launch from Eastern Test Range
- Total 27 HPMs, 21-22 CTMs, 1-2 CTVs
Note Traffic Model based on average satellite
lifetime of 7.5 years.
44OASIS Integrated Traffic Model (Block II)
Traffic model variation is based on satellite
lifetime extremes
Lifetime Estimates 5 years 10
years
- Refined commercial traffic model based on
- Higher usage rate missions only (gt 3 flights per
HPM per year) - Single launch site from ETR to eliminate
duplication of ground infrastructure (excludes
polar servicing) - 50 market share (of high traffic model)
45Total Block II HPM/CTM Annual Propellant
Requirement
46HPM Economic Viability Analysis
47OASIS Economic Viability Analysis Overview
- Objective
- Provide a preliminary economic viability
assessment of HPM/CTM in future commercial
satellite deployment/servicing markets as defined
by the integrated traffic model - Approach
- Compare potential life cycle earnings over range
of critical economic factors - Identify economic factors with strong influence
on earnings - Determine the economic sensitivity and establish
hurdle values for these critical factors - Earning levels necessary for economic viability
include allowance for non-recurring start up
costs - Start up costs per HPM/CTM include HPM/CTM
procurement (ROM estimate 150 million each),
and initial launch, development and deployment of
commercial peculiar infrastructure (e.g., HPM
propellant processing facilities) - Start up costs per HPM/CTM assumed not to exceed
500 million actual value varies inversely with
fleet size - Industry leverages government investment in
infrastructure development
48Identification of Critical Economic Factors
- Critical Economic Factors
- Charge to deploy satellite to operational orbit
- Propellant delivery cost to LEO ( per kg)
- Payload (satellite) cost ( per kg) to LEO
- HPM/CTM use rate
- Life cycle earnings
- Definition
- Total charge to customer to deploy their
satellite - Establishes cost to resupply HPM with full load
(32,000 kg) of propellant per deployment - 5,000 kg payload, calculated at twice the /kg
as propellant - HPM/CTM flights per year (based on traffic model
analysis) - LCE Ch - (Prop P/L)R10 year HPM/CTM life
49Economic Sensitivity to Satellite Deployment Cost
- Range of deployment charges was selected to
represent a substantial reduction over current
launch costs for similar sized satellites - Area of economic viability defined by positive
life cycle earnings with allowance for non-
recurring start-up costs - Propellant delivery costs must be less than 600
to 1,600 per kg over range of charges for
satellite deployment
50Rational for Selection of Parametric Satellite
Deployment Costs
- 70 million upper value of the range offers 15
to 30 million dollar cost advantage over an
existing launch vehicle capable of deploying
5,000 kg to GTO (i.e., Delta IV medium 4,2) - 50 million nominal value is competitive, cost
wise, with a Delta III class vehicle, but offers
substantially greater payload capability to GTO,
or multi payloads to lower energy orbits - 30 million minimum deployment cost represents a
highly competitive option which can deploy Delta
IV medium 4,2 class payloads for less than the
cost of a Delta II
51Economic Sensitivity to Flight Rate
- Range of use rates was established by the HPM
integrated traffic model (flight rates of less
than 6/yr produce poor economics at this
deployment charge) - Area of economic viability defined by positive
life cycle earnings with allowance for non-
recurring start-up costs - Propellant delivery costs must be less than 300
to 600 per kg over range of HPM/CTM use rates
for this minimal satellite deployment charge
52Economic Sensitivity to Flight Rate
- Range of use rates established by the HPM
integrated traffic model (flight rates of less
than 3/yr produce poor economics at this
deployment charge) - Area of economic viability defined by positive
life cycle earnings with allowance for non-
recurring start-up costs - Propellant delivery costs must be less than 700
to 1,100 per kg over range of HPM/CTM use rates
for this nominal satellite deployment charge
53Economic Sensitivity to Flight Rate
- Range of use rates established by the HPM
integrated traffic model (flight rates of less
than 3/yr produce minimal economics at this
deployment charge) - Area of economic viability defined by positive
life cycle earnings with allowance for non-
recurring start-up costs - Propellant delivery costs must be less than
1,300 to 1,600 per kg over range of HPM/CTM use
rates for this maximum considered satellite
deployment charge
54HPM Economic Viability Analysis Conclusions
- Government (NASA or DOD) provides OASIS element
DDTE funding. Industry will leverage government
investment in infrastructure development. - Enough lifecycle revenue to
- Cover start-up costs including HPM/CTM
procurement/launch, and development and
deployment of commercial peculiar infrastructure
(e.g., HPM propellant processing facilities).
These start-up costs are estimated to be as much
as 0.5 billion per HPM/CTM. - Provide the desired commercial return on
investment. - Low propellant delivery cost, less than 1,000/kg
for the nominal 50 million OASIS satellite
deployment charge. - HPM use rates greater than 3 flights per year.
55Operations and Technology Assessment
56HPM Sized for Direct GEO Servicing 400 km 28
Degree Initial Orbit
- Requirements
- Deliver 5,000 kg to GEO orbit ( one way DV
4,200 m/sec ) - Return HPM/CTM to 400 km 28 degree orbit
- Assumptions
- Block II technology
- HPM dry weight increased to account for
additional propellant - Additional dry mass based on 0.94 propellant tank
mass fraction - D propellant / (D propellant D dry
mass) 0.94 - Results
- Usable propellant increased to 70,513 kg from
30,826 kg (39,687 kg additional propellant) - HPM dry mass increased by 2,533 kg to 6,637 from
4,104 kg
57Clean Sheet ELV Propellant Delivery
58Technology Assessment
- Review of 1999 National Reconnaissance Office
(NRO) database - Developed by Advanced Systems and Technology
Directorate - All studies performed at Air Force Research Lab
(AFRL) - Technology studies related to HPM commercial
usage - On-board autonomy
- Autonomous Remote Servicing - Automate mechanical
functions, such as supply, maintenance and
inspection, on on-orbit spacecraft. These
functions extend the life of spacecraft without
requiring the tremendous expense of manned repair
missions, restriction to STS reachable orbits, or
extensive redundant components. - Mission data processing and exploitation
- Space simulation framework - Reduce development
and ops risk and cost of designing, building,
testing, launching and operating satellites - Command and Control
- Multi-mission Advanced Ground Intelligent Control
- Support operational concepts of reducing skill
levels and number of operators, reducing training
time, enabling operators skilled in multiple
satellite operations, and providing these
capabilities at a greatly decreased acquisition,
operations, and maintenance cost - Advanced Astrodynamics Development and Analysis -
Develop quantitative methods to assess risk of
collision, development of techniques to optimize
spacecraft maneuvers, and develop methods for
autonomous constellation operations.
59Summary
60Principal Results and Conclusions
- HPM Commercial Traffic Models
- HPM commercial traffic models have been developed
based on satellite delivery considered the
floor for potential HPM commercial applications - Future DoD missions may provide additional HPM
applications/usage rates - HPM Economic Viability
- HPM/CTM has commercial potential when used as an
orbital transfer stage in conjunction with a low
cost booster to LEO - HPM commercial viability is highly sensitive to
infrastructure costs, mission rates and
Earth-to-LEO launch costs - Single site for HPM propellant launch is highly
desirable to minimize ground infrastructure costs - Required HPM propellant launch costs are
consistent with NASA DPT requirements for
insensitive cargo - Required costs for satellite launch to LEO are
consistent with SLI 2nd Generation RLV goals for
sensitive cargo
61FY02 Activities
- Follow-on activities under RASC have been
proposed for FY02 - Refinement of potential HPM commercial and
military applications - Life cycle cost assessment of HPM for commercial
and exploration applications - Clean sheet analysis of a very low-cost
commercial expendable launch vehicle (ELV)
designed to support HPM on-orbit propellant
re-supply - Continued identification of HPM commercial
applications-specific technology requirements and
technology candidates
62Acronym List
63References
World Space Systems Briefing, the Teal Group,
Fairfax, Va., presented during the IAF 52nd
International Astronautical Congress in Toulouse,
France, dated October 2, 2001. Trends in Space
Commerce, Futron Corporation, dated March,
2001. 2001 Commercial Space Transportation
Projections for Non-geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO),
Federal Aviation Administration, dated May,
2001. The Military Use of Space A Diagnostic
Assessment, Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessment, dated February, 2001. AIAA
International Reference Guide to Space Launch
Systems, American Institute of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, dated 1999. Research and
Development in CONUS Labs (RaDiCL) Data Base,
National Reconnaissance Office, dated 1999. NASA
Technology Inventory Database, National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, maintained
on-line. Technology Planning Briefing, Boeing
Space and Communications Group, dated June,
2001. Roy A. E., The Foundations of
Astrodynamics, MacMillan Company, dated 1965.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
64Backup
65HPM Block I Payload/Velocity Speed
Curves (Utilizing a Single HPM Per Mission)
HPM System Capability
HPM/CTM Block I Performance
Deploy P/L (all electric)
100,000
Retrieve P/L (all electric)
Deploy P/L (all chemical)
Required Impulsive
D
V's
Retrieve P/L (all chemical)
from 400 km circular
80,000
parking orbit (27deg inc)
P/L chem out HPM elec in (hybrid stage)
60,000
Payload (kgs)
40,000
GTO
GPS
GEO
GEO No Plane Change
20,000
Required electric
D
V
from equatorial 400 km
circular to GEO
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Payload Delivery Delta Velocity (mps)
Ref LaRC speed curves
Round trip D V 2payload delivery
66HPM Block I Performance Capability vs.
Representative Spacecraft
KH-12
KH-11
Trumpet
New ICO
Iridium
67Additional NGSO Mission Launch Opportunities vs
HPM Plane Count (Block I)
Block II data for the polar HPM constellation at
90.3o also applies for Block I concept
68NGSO Average Mission Phase Time (Block I)
Block II data for the polar HPM constellation at
90.3o also applies for Block I concept
69HPM/CTM Integrated Traffic Model (Block I)
70Total Block I HPM/CTM Annual Propellant
Requirement