Baseline emission projections and scope for further reductions in Europe up to 2020 Results from the

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Baseline emission projectionsand scope for
further reductions in Europe up to 2020Results
from the CAFE analysis
M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F.
Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W.
Winiwarter, W. Schöpp
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Approach for baseline emission projections

• Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported
  emission inventories for 2000
• Use projections on emission generating activities
  (energy, transport, agriculture)
• EU-wide scenarios and national projections
• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures
  up to 2020
• Taking account of international and national
  legislation

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RAINS emission estimates vs. national
inventories, 2000
SO2
NOx
VOC
NH3
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RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national
inventories, 2000
PM10
PM2.5
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Economic drivers for emission projections
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Projections of economic activitiesused for the
CAFE baseline scenarios

• Energy
• Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU
  countries, with climate measures (carbon price
  12-20 /t CO2)
• Including national comments received after April
• DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES
  calculations for all 25 EU countries, without
  further climate measures)
• National projections (10 countries) - with
  climate measures?
• Agriculture
• DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries,
  pre-CAP reform
• National projections (10 countries)

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Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy
projections
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Emission projections
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Land-based emissions CAFE With climate
measures baseline, EU-25
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Range of SO2 emission projectionskt
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States
---- Sea regions
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Range of NOx emission projectionskt
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States
---- Sea regions
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• The scope for further emission reductions through
  technical measures

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(No Transcript)
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Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions With
climate measures projection, relative to year
2000 100
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Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR)
General assumptions

• Full application of measures included in RAINS
  database (following IPPC BREF notes)
• No premature scrapping and no retrofitting beyond
  current legislation
• Maximum reductions also applied in non-EU
  countries and sea regions

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Scope for further technical emission reductions
CAFE with climate measures baseline, EU-25
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Costs of current legislation and MTFR2020
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Scope for further non-technical emission
reductionsIllustrative climate vs. with
climate measures scenario, EU-25
100
80
60
40
20
0
SO2
NOx
VOC
NH3
PM2.5
2000
CLE-2020 "with climate measures"
CLE 2020 "Illustrative climate"
MTFR-2020 "with climate measures"
MTFR 2020 "Illustrative climate"
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Projected PM emissions in Europe2000-2020
EU-15
EU-10
Non-EU
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• Impact assessment
• All calculations for 2020
• All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology

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RAINS impact assessmentSeven endpoints

• Loss in life expectancy attributable to
  anthropogenic PM
• Premature deaths attributable to ozone
• Vegetation damage from ozone (AOT40)
• Excess of critical loads for acidification for
  forest soils
• Excess of critical loads for acidification for
  semi-natural ecosystems
• Excess of critical loads for acidification for
  lakes
• Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
• More endpoints evaluated in CAFE Cost-Benefit
  Analysis

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Loss in life expectancy attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months

• 2020
  2020
• Current legislation MTFR

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due
to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations
for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with
generic assumption on urban increment of PM
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Premature deaths attributable to ozonecases per
year
Provisional estimates based on grid average ozone
concentrations, 1997 meteorology
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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40
ppm.hours

• 2020
  2020
• Current legislation MTFR

Critical level for forests 5 ppm.hours
Calculations for 1997 meteorology
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Acid deposition to forests

• 2020
  2020
• Current legislation MTFR

Percentage of forest area with acid deposition
above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology
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Acid deposition to forests of forest area with
acid deposition above CL
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
including HABITAT areas

• 2020
  2020
• Current legislation MTFR

Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems
with acid deposition above critical loads using
ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for
1997 meteorology
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
including HABITAT areas of ecosystems area
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Acid deposition to freshwater bodies

• 2020
  2020
• Current legislation MTFR

Percentage of catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads, using
ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for
1997 meteorology
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Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage
of catchments area with acid deposition above CL
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

• 2020
  2020
• Current legislation MTFR

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads using
grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997
meteorology
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above CL
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Conclusions

• Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline
  in the future with progressing implementation of
  current legislation (except ammonia).
• However, air quality problems will remain.
• There is scope for further emission reductions
• Starting from the with climate measures PRIMES
  projection, relatively little AQ improvements
  from more aggressive climate policies
• Significant scope from further technical measures
  beyond current legislation
• Different regions in Europe experience different
  environmental problems.
• No consultations with non-EU countries up to now.