Residential Trajectories of New Migrants in Montral: A Longitudinal and Conjunctural Analysis

1
Presentation

• Residential Trajectories of New Migrants in
  Montréal A Longitudinal and Conjunctural
  Analysis
• Xavier LELOUP and Nong ZHU, INRS-UCS

2
Introduction

• Residential mobility as a process under
  constraints (Bonvalet et Dureau, 2000)
• Research questions
• Effects of individual factors on newcomers
  residential mobility?
• Effects of housing market trends on newcomers
  residential mobility?
• Places characteristics and newcomers
  residential mobility?
• Newcomers mobility and trends in concentration
  of migrant populations?

3
Data

• Enquête sur létablissement des nouveaux
  immigrants (ÉNI)
• Conducted by Jean RENAUD, Université de Montréal
• Longitudinal survey with repeated observation.
  The survey follows a cohort of 1000 migrants
  arrived between mid-June and November 1989 in
  Montréal. Four observations were made after one
  year, two years, three years and ten years.
• Our study is interested in the 429 respondents
  observed until the last period of observation.

4
Econometric models
Two approaches
5
Econometric models
Duration models
Objective Studying effects of individual
factors and places of origin on residential
mobility
Where T is a random variable representing the
date of the move (or access to homeownership) t
is the realization of T  h(t) is a random
function instant rate of moving (or access to
homeownership) at time t, given that a migrant
stayed in one residence (or was a renter) until
this time
6
Econometric models
Duration models
Variables
7
Econometric models
Conditional Logit models
Objective Studying effects of place of
destinations characteristics on individual
choices
prob(Yit1) represents the probability that an
individual i chooses the district t as place of
destination T represents the possible choices
of districts Xit is a vector representing
effects of choices on migrants and Wt is a
vector of districts characteristics
8
Econometric models
Conditional Logit models
Variables

• Relative districts characteristics
• Demographic density
• Accommodation built after 1971
• Average income per capita
• Proportion of population according to birth place

9
Results
Duration models
10
Results
Duration models
Figure 2 Survival function of access to
homeownership per week
11
Results
Duration models
12
Results
Duration models
13
Results
Duration models
14
Results
Conditional Logit models
15
Results
Conditional Logit models
16
Results
Conditional Logit models
17
Results
Conditional Logit models
18
Conclusion

• Newcomers residential mobility as a process
  under constraints, especially related to
  employment
• Professional insertion of both members of
  household seems to become more important
• Effects of market characteristics on mobility
• Results confirm trends in spatial concentration
  of newcomers from countries in the South or in
  the North
• but the results on concentration may be
  affected by the geographical scale used in this
  study
• links between employment and housing will be
  the object of new analyses including incomes and
  neighbourhood effects on global trajectory of
  insertion