Risk Management For Projects with Pertmaster

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Risk Management For Projects with Pertmaster

• Erum Abbas Naqvi

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Agenda

• What is Pertmaster and who are the people behind
  it?
• Project Risk Management concepts
• Introductory Demonstrations
• Importing from Primavera and MS Project
• Quick Risk Templates
• Running a Risk Analysis
• Advanced Risk Management
• Using a Risk Register with your schedule
• Schedule cost loading techniques
• Probabilistic cashflow and profitability
  breakeven
• Weather Modelling
• Summary QA

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Primavera Pertmaster

• Pertmaster Corporate Introduction
• Acquired by Primavera in Dec 2006
• Business unit still managed by founders
• 20 year legacy
• Pertmaster Focus
• Specialists in project risk management
• Full lifecycle risk solution
• Faithful to project scheduling
• Pertmaster Vision
• Improved decision making through project
  intelligence

• Primavera Corporate Introduction
• Founded in 1983
• Full PPM platform
• 175m revenue in 2007
• 550 employees
• Recent capital investment of 150M

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Pertmaster Overview

• Enterprise Project Risk Management
• Capital investment analysis
• Portfolio risk exposure
• Cost/Schedule/Bid analysis
• Contingency/mitigation planning
• What if scenario modeling
• Risk Techniques
• Schedule improvement PPM maturity
• Risk Impact assessment Risk Register
• Risk Analysis Engine Monte Carlo simulation
• Full Lifecycle Risk management
• Portfolio risk strategic project selection
• Project risk tactical project controls/PM
• Integration
• PV P3, P3e, P5, Suretrak
• MS Project, EPM, Deltek

Maximize Profit
Strategic decisions
Maximize Return
Allocate Accordingly
Total project cost
Minimize Uncertainty
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Lifecycle Value Proposition
Corporate Revenue Planning
Project Analysis
Portfolio Analysis
doing projects right
doing the right projects
planning the work
Working the plan
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Project Intelligence Arena
Compliance
Risk Management
Business Intelligence
Project PortfolioManagement
Strategic
Earned value
Reporting
Execution
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Monte Carlo Simulation
iteration

• Range forms an envelope
• One segment is selected for each iteration
• Hidden critical paths revealed

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17
7
Min
Likely
Max
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Pertmaster Risk Analysis Methodology

• Risk Ready state
• Schedule sound logic
• Scheduling errors
• Risk Inputs
• Estimate uncertainty Quick Risk
• Risk Events risk register
• Risk Impacts
• Map risks to tasks
• Risk Analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Risk hot spots
• Risk Response
• Determination of contingency
• Mitigation scenarios
• Probabilistic cashflow

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Plan Validation Schedule Check
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Types of Risk

• Estimate uncertainty

?
Duration/Cost
e.g. how long does it take to drill a well?,
Anadarko
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Initial Risk Inputs

• 3 pt estimates/ triangular Quick Risk
  analysis

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Types of Risk

• Task Existence

?
e.g. Do we need to remove asbestos?, Bechtel
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Types of Risk

• Branching
• Probabilistic Conditional

Outcome A
?
Outcome B
Outcome C
e.g. what will be the outcome from testing?,
Disney.
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Accuracy with Ease!
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Risk Events

• Model impact of risk events
• Generate a risk event plan

• Import from XLS, CSV, Sharepoint
• Compare pre/post mitigated plans

Task Risk Event Modeling
Combined estimate uncertainty with risk events
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Risk Outputs

• Determine key risk drivers
• Risk Hot Spots
• Cost schedule

• Risk Histogram risk status
• Risk Tornado how to fix it
• Contingency mitigation

Risk Histogram
Risk Tornado
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Cumulative cashflow (risk v deterministic)
Under/over budget allocation
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Case Study
ROKE MANOR RESEARCH