Earth Science and Applications from Space

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Earth Science and Applications from
Space Update on the Decadal Study Berrien
Moore 25 August 2006
University of New Hampshire b.moore_at_unh.edu http
//qp.nas.edu/decadalsurvey
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Decadal Survey What is it?

• Charge--The study will generate consensus
  recommendations from the Earth and environmental
  science and applications community regarding
  science priorities, opportunities afforded by new
  measurement types and new vantage points, and a
  systems approach to space-based and ancillary
  observations that encompasses the research
  programs of NASA and the related operational
  programs of NOAA.
• (emphasis added)

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Decadal Survey Specific Tasks

• Review the status of the field to assess recent
  progress in resolving major scientific questions
• Develop a consensus of the top-level scientific
  questions that should provide the focus for Earth
  and environmental observations in the period
  2008-2020.
• Take account of the principal federal- and
  state-level users of these observations and
  identify opportunities and challenges to the
  exploitation of the data generated by Earth
  observations from space.

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Decadal Survey Specific Tasks

• Recommend a prioritized list of measurements and
  identify potential new space-based capabilities
  and supporting activities within NASA and NOAA to
  support national needs for research and
  monitoring of the dynamic Earth system during the
  decade 2008-2020.
• Identify important directions that should
  influence planning for the decade beyond 2020.
  The committee will also give particular attention
  to strategies for NOAA to evolve current
  capabilities while meeting operational needs to
  collect, archive, and disseminate high quality
  data products.

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Decadal Survey Structure

• Executive Committee (Co-chairs) Rick Anthes
  (UCAR) and Berrien Moore (UNH)
• Seven Panels
• Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs
• Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics, and
  Biodiversity
• Weather (including space weather and chemical
  weather)
• Climate Variability and Change
• Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle
• Human Health and Security
• Solid-Earth hazards, resources, and dynamics

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Decadal Survey Executive Committee

• Rick Anthes and Berrien Moore
• At Large Members
• Jim Anderson, Harvard University, atmospheric
  science
• Susan Cutter, Univ. of South Carolina, hazards
  and risk
• Bill Gail, Vexcel Corporation, Earth remote
  sensing technology
• Tony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, weather
• Kathie Kelly, Univ. of Washington, oceanography
• Neal Lane, Rice University, policy
• Bruce Marcus, (retired TRW), remote sensing
  technology
• Warren Washington, NCAR, numerical modeling of
  climate
• Mary Lou Zoback, U.S. Geological Survey, solid
  Earth
• Chairs on the Seven Panels

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Decadal Survey Panels

• Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs.
  Chair Tony Janetos, Heinz Center Vice Chair
  Roberta Balstad, Columbia University
• Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics, and
  Biodiversity. Chair Ruth DeFries, U. Maryland
  Vice Chair Otis Brown, U. Miami
• Weather (incl. space weather and chemical
  weather). Chair Susan Avery, U. Colorado Vice
  Chair Tom Vonder Haar, Colorado State
• Climate Variability and Change. Chair Eric
  Barron, U Texas Vice Chair Joyce Penner, U.
  Michigan
• Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle.
  Chair Dennis Lettenmaier, U. Washington Vice
  Chair Anne Nolin, Oregon State
• Human Health and Security. Chair Mark Wilson, U.
  Michigan Vice Chair Rita Colwell, Canon USA
• Solid-Earth hazards, resources, and dynamics.
  Chair Brad Hager, MIT Vice Chair Sue Brantley,
  Penn State

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Broad Context--Why Now

• NASA is nearing completion of the deployment of
  the Earth Observing System (EOS) and is now
  considering an appropriate strategy for follow-on
  exploratory and systematic missions.
• In the coming decade, NASA plans to transition a
  number of environmental measurements from
  research-oriented programs to operationally
  oriented programs.
• In the coming decade, the new NPOESS and GOES-R
  will be used to monitor global environmental
  conditions and collect and disseminate data
  related to weather, atmosphere, oceans, land and
  near-space environment.
• The United States is leading the development of a
  Global Earth Observation System of Systems
  (GEOSS)

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Broad Context--Why Really Now (A view)

• It is needed--the government lacks an
  over-arching strategy for Earth Observation
  there are pieces via science programs such as the
  Climate Change Science Program but no coherent,
  overarching, broad(er), strategy.
• Not only is the strategy missing but so is a
  coherent and politically compelling rationale.
• The needs to be a vehicle to bring the Earth
  science community together in order to have its
  views heard--it is often too diffuse to be
  (politically) effective.
• There are big problems in Earth Observation
  everywhere

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Decadal Survey Schedule

• Community Meeting in Wood Hole August 2004
  Framing the Study
• Executive Committee met November 2004
• Town hall meetings at AGU (December 2004, San
  Francisco)and AMS (January 2005 San Diego)
  announcing Request for Information for potential
  missions
• 27 April 2005 Interim Report is delivered to
  sponsors
• Summer study August 2005 producing panel input
  into a detailed outline
• Executive Committee refine strategy and review
  Panel progress October 2005
• December 2005 and January 2006 special sessions
  at AGU and AMS to discuss progress
• Executive Committee (plus) refine and begin to
  interleave panel priorities January 2006
• Executive Committee (plus) interleave panel
  priorities May 2006
• Executive Committee (plus) Final Report writing
  August 2006
• October 2006 DRAFT Final report is delivered to
  NRC for review 
• December 2006 Final Report is delivered to
  Sponsors

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VISION
A healthy, secure, prosperous and sustainable
society for all people on Earth
Understanding the complex, changing planet on
which we live, how it supports life, and how
human activities affect its ability to do so in
the future is one of the greatest
intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is
also one of the most important for society as it
seeks to achieve prosperity and
sustainability. NRC (April 2005)
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Interim Report Issued 27 April 2005
Today, this system of environmental satellites
is at risk of collapse.
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Interim Report (April 2005)

• Overriding Concern Absence of Plans for Future
  Research Missions (Mission Queue)
• Consequences of canceled, descoped, and delayed
  missions LDCM, OVWM, GIFTS, Glory (APS and TIM),
  WSOA, and GPM
• Delays in Explorer (Earth System Science
  Pathfinder) line
• Steps to ensure climate data records (via NPOESS)
• Technology base to support new missions, for
  example
• InSAR
• Wide-swath ocean altimetry
• Measurement from space of tropospheric winds
• Recommendations related to above

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Since the Interim Report

• Major problems with NPOESS
• Delays of several years
• Descoping and loss of one spacecraft-1030 orbit
• NASA terminates two more missions and delays
  (with NOAAs help) 2 others
• DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory)
• HYDROS
• GPM Delayed 2.5 years
• NPP Delayed 1.5 years
• RA cuts 15
• LandSat and Glory as Free-flyers
• A change in sign in the d/dt of the Earth
  Sciences NASA budget (whew!)

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Some good news! (Plus GOES-N)

• Successful launch of COSMIC
• April 14, 2006
• Ionospheric electron density
• Stratospheric T
• Tropospheric T, water vapor
• Successful launch of Cloudsat
• /Calipso
• April 28, 2006
• Cloud-profiling radar
• Camera,LIDAR,
• Imaging IR radiometer

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Since the Interim Report

• A change in sign in the d/dt of the Earth
  Sciences NASA budget (whew!)

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NASA Earth Science Funding Past and Future
Projection
Prior
FY07 Request
Decadal Survey
Million
Missions
Non-Mission
Year
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Criteria for Prioritization

• Contributes to the most important scientific
  questions facing Earth sciences today (scientific
  merit-discovery, exploration)
• Contributes to applications and policy making
  (societal benefits)
• Contributes to long-term observational record of
  the Earth
• Complements other observational systems,
  including national and international plans
• Affordable (cost considerations, either total
  costs for mission or costs per year)
• Degree of readiness (technical, resources,
  people)
• Risk mitigation and strategic redundancy (backup
  of other critical systems)
• Makes a significant contribution to more than one
  thematic application or scientific discipline.

Above not in priority order
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Authorizing Language 2006

• "The conferees are aware that the National
  Academy of Sciences is continuing to work on an
  Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal
  Survey which is due to be completed in 2006. In
  preparing the science plan, NASA should, to the
  greatest extent possible, take into consideration
  information available from the Decadal Survey.
  The conferees expect NASA to notify the
  authorizing committees if the completed Decadal
  Survey would change any of the information
  provided in the science plan."

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