REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION REDD

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REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST
DEGRADATION (REDD)

• Rizaldi Boer
• Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity
  Management in South East Asia and Pacific- Bogor
  Agricultural University
• rizaldiboer_at_gmail.com

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• How to construct a baseline against which to
  measure changes in the rate of deforestation?
• How to measure and monitor the emission reduction
  from deforestation and forest degradation
• What definition being applied for REDD Forest,
  deforestation and forest degradation?
• Can we simplify the approach?

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What is a Baseline?

• Future projection of emissions from deforestation
  and degradation under the absence of REDD
• A reference for measuring reductions in emissions
  from deforestation and degradation

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• Need to show reduced emissions from deforestation
  and degradation measured against the baseline

Monitored
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How is a Baseline Set?

• Historical approach
• a straight projection of the past
• Which years and how far back?
• an average of the past
• Which years and how far back
• 2. Modeling approach
• it is modeled on planned land use
• ..Spatial model
• ..Non spatial model
• 3. Other approaches (Forward looking baseline
  Terrestrial Carbon Group Proposal)
• ? To be discussed/negotiated

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BASELINE REL (Reference Emission Level)

• The SB 28 decision (ref) describes Reference
  Emissions Levels (REL) as follows Means to
  establish reference emission levels, based on
  historical data, taking into account, inter alia,
  trends, starting dates and the length of the
  reference period, availability and reliability of
  historical data, and other specific national
  circumstances. similar to a Kyoto target for
  Annex I countries, except that in the case of
  REDD, no penalty is due in the case of
  non-compliance

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Rate of Emission from Deforestation Indonesian
Case

• If REL just based on historical, then Sumatra
  will get much benefit from REDD (giving more
  incentive to regions with high past deforestation
  and less to low past deforestation)
• Need to consider others SBSTA based on
  historical data taking into account other
  specific national circumstances

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What are the specific National Circumstances

• Other regulations that may exist in the country
  such as regulation on minimum forest area that
  has to be maintained by a region or taking
  historical data of forest fraction vs population
  density in the region
• Apply different REL for unprotected and protected
  forests

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(No Transcript)
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Threshold proposed by a number of non-Annex 1
parties
10 Minimum
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What to Measure and Monitor?

• Emissions from deforestation and degradation
• Emissions are estimated from
• Change in forest cover
• Deforestation
• Degradation
• Carbon stocks of forests undergoing change

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How to Monitor

• Elements of system
• Credible
• Transparent
• Real
• Based on good science
• Comply with policy framework
• Three Approaches and three Tiers
• A monitoring system can be designed to meet any
  need

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Methodology Approaches and Tiers
Source IFCA Presentation
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Example of a monitoring system
Forest inventories In-situ/plot
data-projects Targeted remote surveyse.g. Lidar
and aerial imagery FAO statistics IPCC-GPG / AFOLU
Source IFCA Presentation
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What definition being applied for REDD Forest,
deforestation and forest degradation?

• None
• To be negotiated
• Critical for REDD implementation
• Definitions will affect baselines, monitoring
  methods, and potential credits

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Definitions

• Forest under the KP forest is defined
  structurally on the basis of crown cover
  percentage, minimum height and minimum area of
  stand
• Forest area 0.05 to 1 ha (Indonesia decided on
  0.25 ha)
• Potential to reach a minimum height at maturity
  in situ of 2-5 m (Indonesia decided on 5 m).
• Tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level)
  10 to 30 (Indonesia decided on 30)
• Deforestation if forest cover falls below the
  minimum crown cover, it qualifies as
  deforestation, but if this is only a temporary
  change, such as for timber harvest with
  regeneration expected, the land remains in the
  forest classification.
• IPCC Degradation may be defined as a direct,
  human-induced, long-term loss (persisting for X
  years or more) or at least Y of forest carbon
  stocks and forest values since time T and not
  qualifying as deforestation. The parameters X,Y
  and T have not been defined.

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What are the implications?
Do not meet forest definition
Forest
Forest
X years
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Gross vs Net Deforestation
150 t C/ha
90 t C/ha
Natural Forest
Plantation
Gross Only consider the carbon loss occurs on
that year without considering the sequestration
Net Take into account the sequestration occur
after forest disturbance
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Can we simplify the approach?

• Much of the current discussion does not fully
  account for the dynamic links between

Demand for food, fibre, fuel, carbon, and land
Prices for those commod-ities
Population
Land use decisions
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Can we simplify the approach?
Forest cover
Time
Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics
Undisturbed forests
Forest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers
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Can we simplify the approach?
Climate change is a greenhouse gas
problem Reducing rates of deforestation is an
important near-term goal, but reducing rates is
not enough Must also avoid emissions Otherwise
same area of forest will be destroyed, and same
volume of greenhouse gas will be emitted, but
over a longer period
Year of Volume Carbon
Total Emissions
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Can we simplify the appoach?

• AWG-LCA
• Policy approaches and positive incentives
• on issues relating to reducing emissions from
  deforestation and forest degradation in
  developing countries and
• the role of conservation, sustainable management
  of forests and enhancement of forest carbon
  stocks in developing countries

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• there is more to terrestrial carbon than
  forests, so start with what we are confident
  about and build up to a comprehensive system

Total Terrestrial System
All Relevant Greenhouse Gases
Peatlands Forest Lands that can become secondary
forest
Carbon CO2
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PROPOSAL FROM Terrestrial Carbon Group

• TCG Proposal
• All C-stock in protected forests are not tradable
  (PF and CF)
• All C-stock in unprotected forest or subject to
  deforestation or degradation are tradable PrF,
  CnF, PF/CFthreat)
• For unprotected TC, No need to set up REL
• How to define protected forest under threat?
  May need modeling approach or other simple
  approach e.g. if population density beyond
  certain level and allowable forest fraction under
  such density less than existing protected forest,
  then the difference can be defined as the
  threaten protected forest?
• The loss of carbon in agreed protected TC can be
  compensated by planting trees in unprotected TC
  (Thus REDD and AR can be combined)

PF/CF
HP
PF/CF
CnF
PrF/CPrF
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Example How Much Indonesia will get?

• Total forested area of Indonesia is about 86.2
  million ha. Following the TCG proposal
• About 32.6 million ha is protected forests
  (HL/HK)
• About 53.6 million ha can be defined as
  unprotected or tradable terrestrial carbon (HP,
  HPK, APL). With approximate carbon stock of 140
  ton per ha, the total protected terrestrial
  carbon would be equivalent to about 16,760 Mt CO2
  and the unprotected or tradable terrestrial
  carbon will be about 27,500 Mt CO2
• If there is no REDD mechanisms all the
  unprotected terrestrial carbon would be
  disappeared or seriously degraded in the future.
  Using crediting period of 50 years, the projected
  mean rate of emission from deforestation and
  forest degradation would be about 550 Mt CO2 per
  year. Thus, with price of 10 USD/tCO2,
  Indonesia could earn about 5.5 billion USD per
  year in the next 50 years
• Indonesia can decide not to sell all tradable TC
  to avoid over supply in the carbon market