Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis Northeast
Region August 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field
Access and Field Data Locations
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Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food
and Income

• Livelihood Groups Main Sources
• of Food and Income
• 8 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool, Nugal
  valley, Addun, Golis/Gebi, Dharoor and coastal
  Deeh)
• Primary sources of income of poor sale of
  livestock livestock products
• Primary sources of food of poor purchase
• Primary livelihood assets of poor camel,
  sheep/goat

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Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Season

• Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June)
• Start of Season Started on time in Bari regions
  and late in Mudug region
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution Ended early in
  all regions and localized dry in April (1st to
  2nd Dekads), May (2nd Dekad) and, also, dry in
  June.
• Near normal rains Jerriban, Galkayo, Iskusuban,
  Qardho, Qandala and Bosaso districts
• Poor rains Hawd, Addun and Nugal valley LZs

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Climate Vegetation Conditions
NDVI/RFE trend by district land cover
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Civil Insecurity

• Civil security situation
• Bossaso district Land dispute on pastoral
  boundary of Kobdhahad village between two clans
• B/Bayla-(Dhudub village) Resource based
  conflict resulted in death cases
• Galkacyo Occasional killing by unidentified
  groups targeting prominent community members and
  Government
• Presence of sea pirates
• Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
  and Nutrition
• Low impact on rural livelihoods, in general
• Restriction of livestock movement in parts of
  Bari due to clan conflict
• Limited global trade movement due to sea pirates
• Increased IDPs and destitute pastoralist in
  main towns due to civil insecurity in Mogadishu

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
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Agriculture
Gu 09 Cereal Flow July09
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Agriculture

• Northeast Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
  Terms of Trade

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Rice)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (kg rice /daily wage)
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Agriculture

• Northeast Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
  Terms of Trade

• Regional Trend in
• Cereal Prices
• (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (kg of sorghum /daily wage)
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Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July
09

• Poor performance of Gu 09 season
• Negatively affected both rangeland and water
  conditions
• Resulting in poor livestock body conditions and
  milk production
• Leading to stressed and abnormal migration in
  most areas

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Livestock
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
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Livestock Livestock, Water and Pasture/Browse
Conditions

Average camel body condition Iskushuban water
source Iskushuban district Kakaar pastoral
Gu 09
Early water trucking started in Sool Plateau
Meygaag B/Beyla district Sool plateu Gu 2009
Average browse condition Conqorro, Alula
district Golis Gu 09
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Regional Trends in Goat Prices Terms of Trade
Livestock
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Goat (SoSh)
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Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports and Export Quality
Goat Prices
Bossaso Total Annual Livestock Exports (Heads)
Compared to 5-year Average
Bossaso Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export
Quality Goat Prices (US)
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Markets
Imported Commodity Prices, Labour
Rates/Availability

• Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price
  Declines (last six months)
• Declining global prices
• Increased commercial imports
• Appreciated/ Stable SoSh
• Factors Affecting Wage Labor Availability
• Lower investments in construction activities
• Low brokerage activities in livestock marketing

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Summary of Nutrition Findings
Nutrition
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Summary of Nutrition Findings
Nutrition
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Nutrition
Nutrition Situation Estimates - Regional Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

• Key IPC Reference Outcomes
• HE Poor (100) population in Hawd and Addun
  LZs
• Acute malnutrition greater than usual and
  increasing
• Food Access severe entitlement gap, unable to
  meet 2100 kcal ppp day
• Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
  stripping
• Destitution/Displacement emerging (Mudug, Nugal
  regions)
• Coping distress strategies with increasing
  trend
• Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
  depletion
• Main Causes
• Four consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading
  to
• consecutive seasons of poor pasture and water
  conditions
• limited livestock production and high livestock
  off-take
• High food and non-food prices, higher than normal
  water costs
• Reduced household income

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Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

• Key IPC Reference Outcomes
• AFLC with moderate risk to HE Poor (100)
  population in Nugal Valley
• Acute malnutrition greater than usual and
  increasing
• Food Access lack of entitlement, 2100 kcal ppp
  day via livelihood asset stripping
• Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
  stripping
• Destitution/Displacement emerging
• Coping distress strategies with increasing
  trend
• Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
  depletion
• Main Causes
• Two consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading
  to
• consecutive seasons of poor pasture and water
  conditions
• limited livestock production and high livestock
  off-take
• High food and non-food prices, higher than normal
  water costs
• Reduced household income

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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC HE
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• The End