Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the Monstrous Army on the March'

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Social Polarisation in the timing of First Birth

• Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the
  Monstrous Army on the March'

Dylan Kneale Heather Joshi Institute of
Education
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Background I

• Recognition that rates of transition to
  parenthood are decreasing - Men and women are
  postponing parenthood or avoiding parenthood
  altogether.
• Known patterns of social polarisation in age at
  first birth. Early parenthood associated with a
  range of negative predictive characteristics and
  outcomes for parents and children.
• Recent interest has focussed upon role of
  education in determining rates of transition to
  parenthood.
• In particular, education differentials have been
  isolated as markers of increasing polarisation in
  age at first birth.

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Background II
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Background Aims

• (Wolf) Graduate women 'the Monstrous Army on
  the March'
• What about graduate men monstrous army still
  marching?
• Focus has been on increasing polarisation and
  rising childlessness but several different
  scenarios possible
• In addition are differentials caused by different
  sample composition within groups, postponement or
  genuine decreased levels of transition?
• Aims
• Explore polarisation within and between two birth
  cohorts
• Examine the situation for males increasing
  polarisation too?
• Examine some of the determinants of fertility
  differentials

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Data I

• Analysis will use data from two British Birth
  Cohorts National Child Development Study (NCDS,
  1958) and the British Cohort Survey (BCS70,
  1970).
• Both studies began as a census of all UK births
  in a week, with additions in childhood waves.
• In total, data for 18,558 and 18,731 collected at
  some point for NCDS and BCS70 respectively.
• Attrition has affected both studies, with sample
  sizes at the last wave of data collection
  totalling around 9,500 for both.
• However, population estimates of fertility
  transition appear consistent with external data
  (for women)

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Data II
1965 NCDS (Age 7)
1991 NCDS (Age 33)
2004 NCDS (Age 46)
1974 NCDS (Age 16)
1958 NCDS Birth
1969 NCDS (Age 11)
1981 NCDS (Age 23)
2000 NCDS (Age 42)
1975 BCS70 (Age 5)
2000 BCS70 (Age 30)
1986 BCS70 (Age 16)
2004 BCS70 (Age 34)
1980 BCS70 (Age 10)
1996 BCS70 (Age 26)
1970 BCS70 Birth
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Changes in Sample Composition

• Twelve year gap between cohorts has meant both
  were born into very different British societies
  (Wadsworth, Ferri et al. 2003). In particular,
  large changes in educational achievement.

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Entry into parenthood Overall cohort populations

• Similar proportions of early parents exist in
  both cohorts. Differences open up in early and
  mid twenties so that by 34 years

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Highest educational level as a marker of
polarisation
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Predicting future trends

• Numerous different approaches for predicting
  future trends based on existing levels of
  polarisation. Five approaches used in the next
  part
• NCDS parenthood
• Postponed NCDS parenthood
• Flight from parenthood
• Covariate specific flight from parenthood
• Covariate specific postponed flight from
  parenthood (!)
• .and bringing in intentions later.

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Results I Tertiary Qualified Women
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Results II Tertiary Qualified Men
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Results III Intermediate and No Qualifications
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Increasing rates of polarisation?

• Distinctive patterns of parenthood based on
  educational achievement in both cohorts.
• For women, relative proportions entering
  motherhood by highest qualification level
  expected to stay constant childlessness
  expected to rise gradually among all groups.
• For men, gap in fatherhood rates between
  education levels is projected to change in some
  scenarios.
• Gap between tertiary qualified and males with no
  and intermediate qualifications could widenmyth
  of monstrous women replaced by monstrous male
  graduates?
• Gap between males with no and intermediate
  qualifications could narrow.

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Tertiary Qualified I Vocational Vs Academic
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Tertiary Qualified II Subject of qualification

• Childlessness at 34 results for academic
  graduates

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Measuring Postponement and Infertility

• Information on intentions to bear children and
  infertility of cohort member and/or partner
  collected in both cohorts.
• This information gives the first indications that
  BCS70 cohort is postponing as opposed to avoiding
  parenthood.

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Results IV The impact of postponement Tertiary
Qualified Males
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Results V The impact of postponement Tertiary
Qualified Females
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Conclusions I

• Social Polarisation is evident in age at first
  birth.
• Higher education levels obtained are correlated
  with later transition to parenthood.
• Delay appears to have affected males with
  tertiary qualifications disproportionately.
• Populations stratified by education level are not
  homogeneous between cohorts.
• Partial estimates that do not fully take
  postponement and infertility into account predict
  higher rates of childlessness for all populations
  stratified by education level.

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Conclusions II

• When postponement and infertility are factored
  in, projected childlessness could actually drop.
  Polarisation remains in age of transition
  although attenuated for final transition rates.
• However, this could well be offset by higher
  rates of unintended childlessness.
• Mirowsky (2005) suggests 34 years to be the
  optimum age for childbearing taking into account
  socioeconomic and biological factors.
• In terms of intentions at least, little truth in
  monstrous army on the march for women (or men).
• Future Work
• Project flight from parenthood scenario using
  infertility and postponement information

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