CAP Briefing

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TXWG Grp 4 PCT Flight Clinic
Trends and Performance 13 May 2006
Capt David Ayre, CAP Lt Col E. Mooring, CAP
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Beautiful old bird!
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What a waste!
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Purpose of Trend Analysis

• We study history to try and avoid repeating past
  mistakes
• CAPR 60-11 (4 March 2005)
• Nationally provided safety material and CAPF 5
  trend analysis data must be incorporated into the
  course

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Aircraft Fleet
2005 Nall Report
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General Aviation Fixed-WingAccident Statistics
2005 Nall Report
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General Aviation Fixed-WingAccident Statistics
Statistics Per100,000 Flight Hours
2005 Nall Report
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Fixed-Wing AccidentsGA compared with CAP
Statistics Per100,000 Flight Hours
2005 Nall Report
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Sights on Safety
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Sights on Safety
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More Recent Data

• (NTSB data released April 2005)
• General Aviation did about the same in 2003
• General Aviation did a little better in 2004
• Flight instruction had an unusual bump in fatal
  accidents in 2003.

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2002 - Phases of Flight
Maneuvering Includes the following aerobatics,
low pass, buzzing, pull-up, aerial application
maneuver, turn to reverse direction
(box-canyon-type maneuver), or engine failure
after takeoff and pilot tries to return to runway.
2005 Nall Report
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2004 - Weather

• Weather related accidents continue at about the
  same rate each year
• Account for only 4.5 of all pilot related
  accidents in 2004 (up from 3.6 in 2002)
• Account for highest probability of fatality
• (93 of weather-related accidents are fatal-
  up from 71 in 2002)- Leading cause is VFR into
  IMC

2005 Nall Report
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Accidents versus Experience Level
2005 Nall Report
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Student Pilots

• Student pilots comprise 14.2 (down from 15.3 in
  2002) of all pilots
• Student pilots had only 7.0 (7.7 in 2002) of
  accidents
• Why?

2005 Nall Report
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Mid-Air Collisions

• 10 (9 in 2002) midair collisions
• 6 (5 in 2002) fatal midair collisions
• 10 (9 in 2002) fatalities
• Midair collisions usually occur
• On good VFR days
• At low altitudes
• Near airport traffic patterns
• Most at un-towered airports
• (in 2002 and 2004, all occurred during daylight
  hours)

2005 Nall Report
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Fuel Mismanagement

• More than twice a week in 2002, pilots mismanaged
  fuel flow to the engine. 136 Accidents in 2004
  16 fatal
• Fuel exhaustion - depletion of all useable fuel
• Exhaustion -70 accidents - 7 fatal - 12
  fatalities
• 2004 -79 accidents - 4 fatal
• Fuel starvation - fuel remains onboard but is
  prevented from reaching the engine
• Starvation - 36 accidents - 4 fatal - 10
  fatalities
• 2004 - 39 accidents - 7 fatal
• Fuel Contamination
• - 18 accidents - 5 fatal

2005 Nall Report
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2005 Nall Summary

• The accident rates per 100,000 hours for GA
  aircraft were
• 6.22 total and 1.20 fatal.
• Pilot-related causes were responsible for
  three-quarters of all accidents (75.5 percent)
  and nearly the same percentage of fatal accidents
  (78.6 percent).
• Total pilot-related accidents in 2004 declined
  7.0 percent (to 1,067 from 1,147) fatal
  pilot-related accidents dropped 3.4 percent (to
  228 from 236) compared to 2003.
• Weather accounted for 4.5 percent of all
  pilot-related accidents, but 19.7 percent of
  fatal accidents. The majority of fatal weather
  accidents in single-engine aircraft resulted from
  continuing VFR flight into IMC. Single-engine
  retractable and multiengine aircraft accidents
  were more likely to have thunderstorm encounters
  and icing as factors.

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2005 Nall Summary

• Accidents during personal flying accounted for
  about seven out of 10 of all accidents (70.6
  percent), and nearly three quarters (73.8
  percent) of all fatal accidents. Personal flying
  accounted for about half of 2003 GA activity
  (50.1 percent).
• Maneuvering flight was the category with the
  largest number of pilot-related fatal accidents
  (52). This category accounted for almost one out
  of four fatal crashes (22.8 percent) in 2004.
  Maneuvering flight was also the number one fatal
  accident category for single-engine fixed-gear
  aircraft responsible for almost one-third (29.2
  percent) of all SEF fatal accidents.
• Only 13.6 percent of daytime accidents resulted
  in fatalities, but at night, more than one in
  three (34.6 percent) were fatal.

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Specific Examples

• Lets look at some examples.

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Big Bear City, CA

• 21 Nov 03, Palm Springs SAREX
• CFII Pilot (68) and Scanner (67) in a
  Member-furnished PA-28
• Reported bad winds and turbulence in the pass
  coming in
• Wind forecast placed next days flying in
  question
• Crew decides to go home that evening in spite of
  several warnings hotel had been arranged.
• Aircraft was found on a mountain side at 6,900msl

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St. George, UT

• 18 Jan 04, Proficiency flight, C-182Q
• Private Pilot (73) and Commercial Pilot (72)
• Touch and Go Landings
• Bounced landing then landed on nose wheel with a
  prop strike
• Then performed a go-around
• PIC had 4 hours in last 3 months and a total of
  16 hours in this model
• NTSB Probable Cause Improper Flare

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(No Transcript)
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Las Cruces, NM

• 9 Jun 04, Return from CD mission, C-172P
• Private Pilot (74) and Observer (64)
• Returning at night with a low voltage light
• Turning final, another aircraft takes the runway
• Pilot goes around and maneuvers to land
• Aircraft impacts a mesquite brush mound,
  separating the nose wheel
• Aircraft nosed over and slides into a fence
• Minor injuries

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(No Transcript)
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Mitchellville, MD

• 21 Jul 04, C-182 upgrade training and night
  currency sortie
• CFII (43) and upgrade student (27)
• Student had 9 hrs in C-182 with 25 takeoffs and
  landings
• Night approach
• Flared high and stalled
• Hard landing, prop strike, gear bent
• Substantial damage

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Tragic Result
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Iowa Wing

• 22 Mar 03, C-182R, proficiency flight, Instructor
  and a Private Pilot
• West wind favoring Runway 27 (turf, 2400x70)
• Landed to the North on the turf taxiway
  (1077x70) toward a hangar
• Back-taxied to South end of taxiway and took off
  to the North
• After takeoff, turned left to avoid hangar and
  tried to out-climb power lines
• Aircraft banked 90 to the right
• Right wing struck a fence Left wing struck
  power line
• Aircraft crashed on right side killing the IP
• NTSB investigation continues.

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(No Transcript)
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NM Wing Aircraft Accident

• 12 Jun 03, C-182R, Wing Glider Activity
• Tow plane, Private Pilot with 356 flight hours,
  147 in this model
• SGS-2-33 with IP and student
• Immediately after takeoff, tow plane and glider
  encountered substantial lift
• At 300 AGL, both encounter a severe downdraft
• Pilot states established 20-degree climb to
  reduce airspeed to 50 knots IAS.
• Tow plane loses altitude glider releases
  lands
• Tow plane impacts hangar in slight left bank
• Tow pilot has laceration on left hand temple
  requires surgery

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FL Wing Birdstrike
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FL Wing Birdstrike

• Mar 05, C-172P Hernando County Airport FL
• Pilot was entering traffic pattern, when a large
  (yet unidentified) bird crashed into the aircraft
  windscreen. Pilot was uninjured and landed
  safely. With a small change in trajectory, this
  could have been a catastrophic accident!
• March and April traditionally host the Spring
  migration and the birds are
• known for keeping tight schedules. July and
  August are when many inexperienced young birds
  are present and the flying abilities of adults
  may
• be impaired as they molt their flight feathers.
  August through October is the Fall migration with
  September being the most hazardous month for bird
  strikes.
• What can you do as a pilot?
• Check airport documentation, NOTAMs ATIS.
• Plan to fly as high as possible. Only 1 of
  general aviation bird strikes occur above 2,500
• Avoid flying along rivers or shore lines,
  especially at low altitude. Birds, as well as
  pilots, use these navigational features
• Slow down when bird activity is heavy. Birds
  have time to get out of the way up to 80-90 knots
  - higher speeds mean a greater strike chance.
• If you see a bird ahead of you, attempt to pass
  above them as birds usually break-away downward
  when threatened.

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WA Wing Hard Landing Accident
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WA Wing Hard Landing Accident

• 13 Mar 05, at 1315 PST, a C-182Q, N96985
  experienced a hard landing at Sanderson Field
  Airport, Shelton, Washington
• The aircraft was substantially damaged. The
  41-year old private pilot-in-command and the
  68-year old CFII flight instructor (CAP check
  pilot) were not
• injured.
• Activity was a CAPF 5 check ride in VMC
• Winds for runway 05 were 030/12G21 - a crosswind
  component of 7kts at
• peak gust.
• Aircraft touched down hard. Without realizing
  the damage to the aircraft, was
• flown back to Bremerton, WA.
• Maintenance personnel at Bremerton inspected the
  aircraft and found wrinkles in the skin forward
  of the right side door post, wrinkles to the
  firewall and lower
• stringer.

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SC Wing Landing Accident
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SC Wing Landing Accident

• C-182RG N2263T at Rock Hill/York County Airport
  
• During the landing, the aircraft departed the
  side of the runway, traveled across
• the grass median and then entered a taxiway
  intersection.
• Transitioning from the grass back onto the hard
  surface, the nose gear fork and wheel sheared off
  of the strut. Subsequently, the prop struck the
  ground and the engine stopped. No injuries.
• 78 year-old pilot has 4,200 hours of flight time
  and 159 hours in this model.
• Winds were 50 off of runway heading at 8 kts.
• The FAA and SC Wing are investigating this
  incident.

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TX Wing Aircraft Buffeted
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TX Wing Aircraft Buffeted

• Shortly after midnight the C-182 was cleared to
  taxi to Runway 4 at El Paso International but,
  was not informed of engine runs from a Delta
  MD-88 parked at the gate.
• As the aircraft taxied behind the MD-88 it was
  buffeted by jet wash, which caused a prop strike
  and the right wingtip to hit the taxiway.

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WY Wing Fatality
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WY Wing Fatality
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WY Wing Fatality

• 18 Nov 05 a C-182R apparently struck a river
  gauging wire in the Snake River Canyon, WY
• SM Fletcher F. Anderson, 57, died on impact when
  the CAP aircraft he was flying hit the thick
  steel-braided cable, which is strung across the
  river at 25ft to gauge river height.
• The pilot was flying to Afton to pick up another
  CAP member for a training flight.
• Anderson had been a member of the Teton
  Composite Squadron for over a year.
• He was an experienced kayaker, having written a
  book about rivers in the Southwest and Colorado.
  He also wrote Flying the Mountains, a training
  and
• safety guide about flying single-engine aircraft
  in mountainous regions. He was a flight
  instructor with over 4,000 flight hours and
  worked as a corporate and charter pilot.
• The Wyoming Wing and the National Transportation
  Safety Board (NTSB) are continuing the
  investigation.

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Safety Program
21 December 2005 MEMORANDUM FOR WING AND REGION
COMMANDERS SUBJECT Consolidation of Safety
Programs 1. Effective immediately, policy
letters which reference the Sights On Safety
program and the 12 Point Safety Initiative are
rescinded. Both of these were effective programs
but, were very costly. 2. Safety campaigns must
first be affordable and must stay fresh to remain
effective. To that end, we will focus
exclusively on Operation CAPSAFE, which was
developed by my National Safety Officer, Col Lyle
Letteer. A brief description of Operation
CAPSAFE appeared in the October edition of The
Sentinel. It can be found at http//level2.cap.g
ov/documents/Oct_05_Sentinel.pdf. More details
will be provided in an article that Col Letteer
has written for the CAP Volunteer, our new
magazine. 3. The safety of our people and other
resources remains a top priority. This measure
will allow full focus on our new safety campaign
and provide more return on our dollars. It will
also allow us to receive safety suggestions from
every member.
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Aircraft Repairs Cost Big Bucks
(Mar 06 Sentinel) Last year, CAP aircraft that
were damaged cost a whopping 293,000 to repair.
This does not include the C-182 that was totally
destroyed in Monroe, LA. More recently (during
the last two weeks), a CAP C-172s taxied into a
parked Gulfstream IV business jet and a
personally-owned Piper Cherokee. How did this
happen? CAPR 60-1 guidance for ground and taxi
operations is Pilots will maintain adequate
clearance from all obstacles during all ground
operations. When taxiing within 10 feet of any
obstacle, pilots shall bring the aircraft to a
complete halt, and then proceed at a pace not to
exceed a slow walk until clear of the obstacle.
When confronted with tight quarters during ground
operations, remember you have options - slow
down, use a marshaller, stop, shutdown, push it,
tow it, taxi somewhere else, let the FBO move it
just dont hit anything. Taxi clearance needs
to be a continuing operations emphasis item. So
far this year, 6 aircraft mishaps have involved
ground handling or taxiing into obstructions. All
of these are preventable mishaps. We are wasting
limited maintenance dollars to repair these
aircraft. WE NEED YOUR UNDIVIDED ATTENTION to fix
this plaguing problem.
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Not All Accidents are Aircraft Accidents
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Idaho Wing

• 9 Aug 03, SAREX, Minnidoka, ID
• 75 year-old member returning from positioning
  ground targets
• Approached a marked, but unguarded, railroad
  crossing
• Train crew said they made eye contact with him
  before the car crossed the track
• Train was traveling at 50 mph as it impacted
  the passenger side of the van
• Driver was not using a seat belt and was ejected
  from the vehicle fatal injury

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Compare to Form 5 Trends

• Weather, Judgement,
• Obtaining weather info
• Normal approach and Landing Go-Around
• Traffic pattern, Go-
• around, Malfunctions
• Normal landing, also
• Vigilance, Judgement
• Cross-wind T.O.,
• Short Field T.O.,
• Judgement
• Power-on Stalls,
• and Judgement

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Safety
Safe is not the equivalent of risk free -
U.S. Supreme Court, 1972
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Questions?
Capt. David Ayre, CAP 281 367 0519 ayrefam_at_sbcglob
al.net